Nepal at a Crossroads: Navigating Geopolitics, Post-Election Dynamics, and the Path to Socialism

The world order in the third decade of the 21st century is undergoing an unprecedented transition. The unipolar world established after the dissolution of the Soviet Union is gradually weakening, while the rise of 'Global South' nations has given birth to a new form of multipolarity.

In this context, the post-election political landscape in Nepal and its external relations have created a new dimension. For Nepal, a landlocked nation spread across seven provinces from the Himalayas to the Terai, diplomatic acumen is the primary necessity right now.

This article attempts to analyze the historical background of Nepal's leftist movement, the message of the 082 elections, geopolitical complexities, the current state of federalism, and the path forward.

Transformation of Nepali Society

Viewing Nepal's political history through the lens of dialectical materialism, every change here has been directed by the conflict over control of the means of production and social relations. The anti-Rana movement of 007 BS, the People's Movements of 036 and 046 BS, the People's War of 052 BS, and the Second People's Movement of 062/063 freed Nepali society from the web of feudalism and brought it to a federal democratic republic.

However, the journey towards socialism remained incomplete. A political complexity was manufactured regarding the practical implementation of the concept of a 'socialism-oriented' state mentioned in the constitution. Leftist and democratic forces could not break free from this.

Current Nepali society remained in a transitional phase characterized by comprador capitalism, a remittance-based economy, and an ambiguous relationship with the state. Leftist political leaders either failed to internalize or chose not to heed Lenin's maxim, 'Without revolutionary theory, no revolutionary movement is possible.' Consequently, Nepal's leftist parties could not escape the labyrinth of comprador capital.

Nepal's leftist forces were confused about whether to consider parliamentary practice as the ultimate goal or to use it as a means to build a society based on social justice and equality, moving towards the destination of socialism. For this, they were unwilling or unable to articulate clear positions on structural issues such as control over the means of production, the role of the state, and the development of a self-reliant economy. As a result, they suffered a shameful defeat in the 082 elections.

The results of the recently concluded elections signal the impulse, anger, and desire for change in the psychology of Nepali voters. The failure of traditional political forces to channel this impulse through the sieve of wisdom resulted in the newly emerged or engineered forces securing nearly a two-thirds majority in parliament. Leftist political forces must now understand that the people want 'delivery,' not just 'assurances.'

Generational Transition and the Role of Gen Z

The role of young voters, especially the generation accustomed to digital technology, was decisive in this election. Social media was no longer just a medium for information; it became the primary arena for setting political agendas and shaping public opinion.

The leadership completely failed to realize that issues like employment, digital infrastructure, education reform, and climate change were priorities for young voters. Despite the populism sought in the election manifestos, conscious citizens prioritized long-term economic planning and issues of national sovereignty.

The lack of expected success for parties engaging in politics of ethnic, geographical, and social division also clearly reflects the aspirations of the voters.

Geopolitical Complexities

Nepal's location is not limited to being between two giant neighbors. It has also become a strategic confluence point for America's 'Indo-Pacific Strategy.' In such a situation, how to protect Nepal's neutrality and national interest is a major challenge.

Nepal must maintain balanced relations with both neighbors, China and India, keeping its national interest at the center. While seeking cooperation from neighbors in agricultural development, water resources, and connectivity, its sovereignty must not be compromised. For this, a transparent and nationally interest-focused institutional mechanism is necessary in the selection, management, and implementation of projects like the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).

The Strategic Partnership Program (SPP) must not be accepted under any circumstances. It is imperative to strengthen Nepal's negotiating capacity regarding the open border with India, the Lipulekh issue, water resource agreements, and energy trade.

International Solidarity

Nepal, as a non-aligned nation, needs to have a clear stance on issues such as Venezuela's struggle against imperialist intervention and the right to self-determination for Palestine. This will not only enhance Nepal's moral standing on the world stage but also support its effective presence in multilateral forums like the United Nations.

However, diplomatic acumen to balance such stances with bilateral relations is equally important. In the past, Nepal's vote in favor of Ukraine at the UN and the Nepali government's decision not to issue 'on-arrival visas' to Iranian citizens are not in line with the non-aligned foreign policy.

5. Federalism and Local Government: The Basis of Good Governance

The successful implementation of federalism envisioned by the constitution is the key to Nepal's development. However, the centralized mindset, confusion in resource allocation, and lack of capacity building have raised questions about federalism itself. Local governments need to be strengthened and made self-reliant.

Economic self-reliance, modernization in agriculture, maximum utilization of local resources, and institutional development of cooperatives are its main foundations. From a leftist perspective, the concept of cooperatives and collective farming should be promoted from the local level. This is possible only if land management, easy access to agricultural loans, declaration of support prices for every agricultural produce, and ensuring proportional access to the market are guaranteed. This will simultaneously end unemployment and make the country self-sufficient in food. The framework of accountability must be clear. This structural aspect is most important for the success of federalism.

Technology and Social Mobilization

In the digital age, the use of technology is indispensable to counter 'propaganda' and bring the voices of the grassroots people into the mainstream. The influence of social media seen in election campaigns must now be used for policy formulation and public awareness.

However, mere use of technology is not enough for this. Establishing digital infrastructure as a public service, public ownership of media, and effective implementation of the Right to Information must also be mandatory agendas for leftist politics.

In addition, an important issue that Nepali leftists must raise is national data security. As the current government prioritizes digital operations, there is a need for vigilant campaigning and oversight regarding what the national strategy and capacity for digital security are.

Relevance of Ideological Awakening

'Red Book Day,' celebrated on February 21 last year, delivered an important message regarding ideological awakening. Books and ideas remain powerful weapons for change. Therefore, the general public must be trained in Marxist thought.

Instead of merely copying Marxism, it is necessary to develop and implement it in the Nepali context by conducting a 'concrete analysis of the concrete situation.' For this, there is a need to build a theoretical and ideological foundation based on the current class structure of Nepali society, the form of the state, the nature of global capitalism, and Nepali specificity.

The Way Forward

Nepal stands at a decisive juncture. There is no alternative to respecting the mandate given by the 082 elections. Political parties must now focus on economic prosperity and social justice. The arrest of KP Oli and Ramesh Lekhak raises the suspicion that the ruling side has adopted a politics of vendetta.

Arrogance and conceit brought us to this point. A policy of consensus and cooperation on national issues must be adopted instead of retaliation. For this, attention needs to be paid to the following directions:

First, the economic agenda. Breaking the circle of comprador capitalism, developing national capital, increasing investment in the productive sector, and transforming the remittance-based economy into a production-based economy.

Second, diplomatic stance. Firmly adhering to the policy of 'friendship with all, enmity with none' without joining any military bloc. However, to put this policy into practice, the development of institutional diplomatic capacity, negotiation skills, and a clear definition of national interest are necessary.

Third, youth leadership. Determining a new direction by combining the energy of the youth and the experience of the old. A clear institutional process for generational transition within political parties, a framework for youth participation in policy-making, and leadership development programs are necessary for this.

Fourth, ideological clarity. Not considering parliamentary practice as the final goal, but using it as a tool for building a society based on social justice and equality. For this, the capacity to conduct fact-based analysis through theoretical study and connect with the basic needs of the people must be developed.

Nepal's journey towards socialism is difficult, but not impossible. The destination can be reached through clarity of thought, strengthening of organization, and development of institutional capacity.