Extreme Heat Driven by Climate Change Threatens Global Coffee Production, Scientists Warn

Kathmandu. Scientists have stated that the abnormally increasing number of extremely hot days every year in the world's major coffee-producing countries due to climate change is severely impacting coffee cultivation. They conclude that this is not only reducing production but also contributing to price increases in the international market.

According to an analysis published by the independent research organization Climate Central, between 2021 and 2025, the world's 25 major coffee-producing countries experienced an average of 47 extra days of harmful heat annually. During these days, temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius, a temperature considered risky for coffee plants.

Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, which account for about 75 percent of the world's coffee production, recorded temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius for an average of 57 days. Cristina Dahl, Vice President of Science at Climate Central, stated that climate change is directly challenging coffee cultivation. According to her, prolonged extreme heat is now being observed in almost all major coffee-producing countries, increasing the likelihood of damaging plants, reducing yield, and affecting quality.

She noted that over time, its impact will reach from the farm to the consumer, affecting both the taste and price of daily coffee. The organization stated that because the United States imports about one-third of its consumed coffee from Brazil, tariffs imposed there contributed to price increases last year. However, extreme weather seen in coffee-growing regions in recent years is also cited as a major factor in the price hikes.

Suitable temperature and rainfall are necessary for successful coffee cultivation. According to Climate Central, temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius are extremely harmful to the Arabica variety and also unsuitable for the Robusta variety. These two varieties account for the majority of the global coffee supply.

During the study, researchers compared the estimated number of days remaining below 30 degrees Celsius in a scenario without carbon pollution with the actual data. Through this process, the number of hot days added due to climate change was identified. According to climate observers, the last three years have been recorded as the hottest years in world history. Its impact is becoming clearly visible in the agricultural sector.