From Jasmine Revolution to Authoritarianism: Tunisia's Troubled Democratic Journey

Mohamed Bouazizi, a young street vendor selling vegetables in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid, set himself on fire on December 17, 2010, driven to despair by repeated abuse and humiliation from local administration and police, and the lack of alternative employment opportunities. This act sparked a massive popular uprising, known as the 'Jasmine Revolution,' which laid the foundation for the Arab Spring.

Following his death, the popular uprising that began in Tunisia quickly transformed into a regional revolt called the Arab Spring, shaking the foundations of power and society not only in Tunisia but also in Arab nations like Egypt, Libya, and Syria.

On January 14, 2011, Ben Ali fled the country to Saudi Arabia. A democratic transition then began. An interim government was formed in February 2011. In the October 2011 constitutional assembly elections, Ennahda (an Islamist-inspired party) secured a majority. The new constitution was implemented in January 2014, strengthening the parliamentary system, civil liberties, press freedom, balance of power, and multi-partisanship. Political debate flourished during this period, but slow economic reforms meant unemployment (30-40 percent, especially among youth) and discontent persisted.

Tunisia's political history has long been characterized by intense conflict between centralized rule and the rising expectations of the people. After gaining independence from France in 1956, Habib Bourguiba became the first president and established a one-party rule. In 1987, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali seized power through a 'coup' and ruled in a dictatorial style for 23 years (until 2011). During this period, political parties were suppressed, opposition voices stifled, and elections were merely formalities. Corruption was rampant, unemployment was high, social inequality was deep, and the lack of freedom of expression pushed public discontent to an extreme level.

After the Spring movement, Beji Caid Essebsi became the first elected president in 2014, securing 55.685% of the vote. However, in 2019, Kais Saied, an independent figure from outside the political establishment, won the presidency in the second round with 72.715% of the vote. Initially, the public viewed him as a 'hope for change and justice.' But on July 25, 2021, Saied suspended parliament, dismissed the prime minister, declared a state of emergency, and centralized power in his hands—an act many termed a 'constitutional coup.' In 2022, a new constitution concentrating power in the presidency was implemented, weakening the authority of the parliament and the judiciary. Parliament became bicameral (up from one chamber) but remained limited by presidential influence.

Kais Saied was born on February 22, 1958, in the Tunisian capital, Tunis, into a middle-class family. Raised in a family of civil servants, Saied was nurtured in an environment that valued the state, law, and institutional discipline. This background appears to have played a significant role in shaping his political thinking and leadership style. Educationally, Saied is an expert in law. He studied law at the University of Tunis and achieved high proficiency in constitutional law.

Furthermore, while studying in France, he was influenced by French constitutional traditions. After teaching at the university for a long time, he trained judges, lawyers, and administrators. During this period, he did not affiliate with any political party but remained known as a public intellectual figure due to his legal purity and moral rigor. Without party structures or large financial resources, he gained popular support with an anti-corruption and anti-party system message. Ultimately, he succeeded in being elected president independently.

The presidential election took place on October 6, 2024. Saied was re-elected, securing 90.695% of the vote. However, voter turnout was only 28.85%, the lowest participation since the 2011 revolution. Key opposition figures were either barred from candidacy or imprisoned. This rendered the election 'uncompetitive.' Following the election, Saied emerged as an even more powerful ruler.

However, the current situation has become complex and worrying. International media and analysts describe Saied's rule as 'one-man rule.' On January 30, 2026, an additional 11-month state of emergency (until December 31, 2026) was extended in the country, granting police powers to arrest, impose curfews, ban gatherings, and censor the media. Major opposition leaders (from Ennahda and other parties) are in jail. Dozens have been sentenced to 40-45 years in prison. Press freedom is curtailed, and civil society has weakened. On January 10, 2026, protests occurred, and the voices of dissent are growing louder.

The economy is currently in crisis. According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund), in 2026, the unemployment rate is 16.45% (even higher among youth), and inflation is 6.15%. GDP growth is only estimated at 2.15%. Foreign exchange reserves are under pressure because IMF assistance was rejected. The UGTT (Tunisia's main trade union) had announced a nationwide strike on January 21, 2026, but it was postponed due to internal disputes (resignation and withdrawal of leaders) and government pressure. However, many strikes are expected this year. But since the security forces are fully loyal to Saied, the possibility of a new major revolution appears weak.

The Tunisian experience shows that while a revolution can remove an old dictatorship, mobilization alone is insufficient to establish and sustain democracy. It requires institutional strength, responsible leadership, economic justice, and continuous citizen participation. In Tunisia, despite gaining freedom and a new constitution after the revolution, economic problems, high unemployment, and disputes among political parties fueled frustration, which benefited populist leaders. Nepal can learn from this that changing the government is not the only achievement. The people must experience tangible improvements in daily life, such as employment, corruption control, and economic justice. Furthermore, institutions like parliament, the judiciary, the election commission, and the media must be made independent and balanced, not merely used as instruments to retain power.

Political parties must adhere to internal democracy, policy-focused competition, and public accountability, because if parties become divided, it benefits populists or single leaders. Democracy cannot be stable without economic development and employment. Rising youth unemployment increases discontent and provides an opportunity for power-centralizing governance. Moreover, democracy weakens without the active monitoring, protest, and pressure from civil society, the media, and the public. Viewed this way, the Tunisian experience clearly shows that while democracy is born from movements, institutional reform, responsible leadership, economic justice, and continuous citizen participation are indispensable to preserving it and fulfilling the people's dreams.

Only if Nepal internalizes these lessons can our democracy truly become pro-people, inclusive, and stable. Otherwise, there is a fear that public discontent will rise again after some time, leading to renewed political instability.