Koshi Province Political Maneuvering Amidst Shifting Alliances

Biratnagar. The ripples of the new political equation developing in Karnali, Sudurpashchim, and Bagmati provinces are also being felt in Koshi Province. Although the Nepali Congress is said to be leaving the Koshi government led by the UML, the party has not yet made an official decision. However, the major parties in the provincial assembly, the Nepali Congress, CPN UML, and the Communist Party of Nepal, have intensified internal discussions. The Congress has already assigned the leader of the Koshi Province Assembly parliamentary party and provincial president Uddhav Thapa and central committee member Amrit Aryal to hold discussions with the center. On the other hand, Chief Minister Hikmat Kumar Karki, who is also a secretary of the UML, has been focused in the capital Kathmandu for the past few days. Sources claim that Karki, along with Chief Whip Ramesh Kumar Basnet, is holding discussions with UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli in Kathmandu. CPN UML Koshi Province Parliamentary Party Chief Whip Ramesh Kumar Basnet stated that he has alerted the party's central leadership about the serious situation in Koshi Province. Basnet briefed about the situation in Koshi during a parliamentary department meeting on Sunday, which was also attended by party chairman KP Sharma Oli. 'Our department had discussions with colleagues from all seven provinces. I presented the unusual practices such as the change of chief minister 5 times in Koshi Province from the past to the present, and the speaker's involvement in government changes,' Basnet said, 'I also presented the current arithmetic in the Koshi Provincial Assembly.' He stated that he had warned about the possibility of going for mid-term elections if the work is not done intelligently. He said that he briefed about the situation of having to go for mid-term elections if there is any lapse, stating that it is not the time to engage in games of toppling and forming governments. 'If we falter even a little, we might have to go for mid-term elections. Therefore, we must proceed with caution,' he said. Congress Provincial Assembly President Uddhav Thapa, who is also the leader of the Congress parliamentary party, and Congress central committee member Amrit Aryal had been frequently traveling to Kathmandu. However, it is said that Congress leaders are not showing much interest now as the possibility of a leftist alliance appears to be emerging. However, Basnet stated that no directive came from party chairman Oli regarding the leftist unity or cooperation in that meeting. 'We haven't received anything like that, and there's no specific decision to go with a particular party right now,' he said. In a recent interview, Chief Minister Hikmat Kumar Karki had stated that although the Congress might leave the government due to central directives, he stood firm on proceeding only through principles and procedures. 'We have no misunderstanding or disagreement with the Congress here in the province. Let's try to work together as much as possible,' Karki had said. On the other hand, leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal are also focused in Kathmandu, viewing the friction between Congress and UML as an opportunity. Indra Bahadur Angbo, the leader of the CPN parliamentary party, went to Kathmandu on Monday. He said, 'Discussions will be held with the leaders regarding the recent political developments. Entry will also be discussed on that occasion.' Congress Provincial Assembly President Uddhav Thapa, who is also the leader of the Congress parliamentary party, and Congress central committee member Amrit Aryal had been frequently traveling to Kathmandu. However, it is said that Congress leaders are not showing much interest now as the possibility of a leftist alliance appears to be emerging. Congress Chief Whip Gopal Tamang said that nothing will happen for two to three days. 'Nothing has developed yet, I am in Jhapa. The party leader is also in the province. BP Jayanti is on the 6th. New developments might occur after that program,' Tamang said. Bhupendra Rai, the general secretary of the Congress Koshi Province, said that although he is in Kathmandu, there have been no discussions about the provincial government. 'There is a program on BP Jayanti. Something might happen after that,' he said. Some leaders say that the possibility of a leftist alliance government being formed in Koshi Province has increased in the new political situation. 'If the Congress-UML government fails, then it will be led by the CPN. For that, leftist cooperation is necessary,' said a CPN leader, 'However, our friends in the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal have some difficulties from the past. That needs to be resolved through discussion.' The CPN leader stated that his party has not received the chief minister position in Gandaki, Koshi, and Madhesh so far. 'We have not formed a government in Gandaki, Koshi, and Madhesh yet. Therefore, based on that, there is no possibility of a government led by the CPN in Gandaki and Madhesh. So, we have to push for Koshi.' Easier in Koshi with Leftist Unity Koshi Province has a total of 92 members in the provincial assembly, requiring at least 47 lawmakers for a majority. If the CPN UML and CPN form an alliance, there will be an easy majority in Koshi Province. Koshi currently has 92 members, with 40 from UML and 17 from CPN, totaling 57 lawmakers. Under this equation, a clear and strong majority government is likely to be formed. On the other hand, even if a majority is reached in an equation without the UML, the possibility of it being sustainable is weak. The provincial assembly has 29 members from Congress and 17 from CPN, totaling 46. This coalition needs an additional 1 seat to reach a majority. For this, support from JSP, which has 1 seat, or RPP, which has 5 seats including the speaker, is necessary. With RPP stating that it will not participate in the current power calculations, reaching a majority without the UML here has become like 'a frog's thirst'.