The Shifting Landscape of Warfare: How Cheap Drones and Data are Redefining Conflict

Major news of attacks and counter-attacks emerges daily from the Middle East. Within these reports lies the evolving narrative of war. In the first week of Tehran's retaliation campaign, 71 percent of the operations conducted in Gulf nations were drone-based.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) alone faced 1,422 drones and 246 missiles in just eight days. We saw a similar trend in Ukraine. However, Iran has clearly laid out the future shape of warfare before us.

Michael Horowitz, affiliated with the 'Council on Foreign Relations,' states, 'We are now in the precise phase of widespread warfare.' This is a timely observation. For decades, precision warfare was understood to involve the use of 'Tomahawk' missiles, 'stealth bombers,' or fighter jets. Today, that meaning has changed.

It now refers to 'one-way' drones manufactured from commercial components and capable of mass (swarm) strikes. Capabilities once exclusive to large industrial nations can now be assembled and built by smaller states in increasing numbers.

This has completely inverted the economics of war. An 'A'-shaped drone costs around $35,000. Stopping it with a 'Patriot interceptor' costs $4 million. For the cost of one Patriot interceptor, more than a hundred drones can be purchased.

This is the arithmetic of conflict that is currently changing. While the attacker spends in the realm of thousands of dollars, the defender must spend tens of millions. Even with successful defense, the attacker achieves success in a form of 'attrition' strategy.

The revolution happening in warfare today is even bigger than drones. This revolution is taking place within a new kind of military 'architecture.' Cheap automated systems, AI-assisted targeting, commercial satellite imagery collection, robust communication systems, integrated sensors, and 'cyber tools' all work in concert.

The goal is not just to hit the target, but to drastically shorten the time required for an attack, allowing for detection, decision-making, and striking before the enemy can evade, hide, or prepare again. An exercise conducted by the US Air Force last year found that machines suggested 30 times more options in 10 seconds compared to humans.

The old model of military supremacy was based on exquisite systems—attractive but expensive, slow to produce, and resulting in massive losses upon destruction. But today, such a system alone is insufficient. In 2023, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks unveiled the Pentagon's 'Replicator' project, calling it a plan to maintain American superiority over its rivals.

She described the 'Replicator' system as 'small, smart, cheap, and numerous.'

Future wars will not be won solely by a force possessing a single type of superior system. Victory will go to those who can operate a cheap, agile, and intelligently interconnected network using capable platforms. A large number of ordinary systems can defeat a small number of exquisite systems.

The US is now using a low-cost drone system called 'Lucus,' similar to Iran's 'Shahed-136.' The world's most advanced military is learning from a 'rogue regime' that has long faced sanctions. This is happening because the 'logic' of war has changed.

'Software,' automated systems, and real-time network connectivity have given quantity a quality of its own. Horowitz argues that just as 'machine guns and tanks' were used in massive quantities in the past, precision strike systems will also be used in massive quantities going forward.

Ukraine currently serves as the great laboratory for the new era in warfare. Ukraine has developed a model for wartime adaptation. Ukraine's 'Sting Interceptor' drone costs only $2,000. It flies at speeds of 280 kilometers per hour.

Since mid-2023, it has shot down over 3,000 Shahed drones. According to Reuters, production is also occurring at a rate of over 10,000 per month. According to pilots involved in test flights, anyone familiar with operating older drones can learn to fly these in just '3 to 4 days.'

There is also a software aspect. Ukraine has given its allies open access to all data generated on the battlefield. This allows them to train their own drones. Such training will significantly enhance 'pattern recognition' and targeting capabilities. According to Ukrainian Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, his country currently possesses 'a unique repository of battlefield data, more than any other country in the world.'

This includes millions of images collected during tens of thousands of combat flights. In other words, the most valuable asset in war is no longer just 'hardware'; 'data' now holds equal importance.

The impact of these facts and figures is not limited to the Gulf region and Ukraine. According to a top Ukrainian commander, Moscow is currently producing 400 Shahed-style drones daily, with a goal to increase production to 1,000 per day. Meanwhile, the American arms company 'Lockheed Martin' produced only 600 interceptors throughout 2024.

The plan is to increase this to 2,000 by 2027. This is where the story diverges. The main issue is no longer just the production of advanced technology, but industrial-scale production incorporating lessons from the battlefield with high-speed software integration.

This military revolution has many profound implications. With the proliferation of drones, war can happen anywhere. Soldiers will never rest. When there is no physical presence of humans on the battlefield, it also becomes easier to push the war into a 'deadlock' (stalemate).

With lethal weapons being easily produced, terrorist groups, drug 'cartels,' and criminal organizations can also wage war—something previously thought possible only for organized armed forces.

The Gulf War of 1991 taught the world that advanced technology makes war precise. Now, in 2024, Iran is teaching the world an even bigger lesson: precision warfare capability is now being mass-produced. Countries with the best 'platforms' will no longer dominate war.

Those who can integrate small, agile weapons with expensive weapon systems and large numbers of drones will prevail. Human decision-making in war is gradually being replaced by 'computer algorithms.' This is the future of war. This day has arrived much sooner than any of us imagined.

(Adapted from Foreign Policy)