Netanyahu Rushes to Pass Budget to Avert Early Election Amid Unfavorable Polls in Iran Conflict

Amid the ongoing Iran-US conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is rushing to pass this year's budget to postpone an early election, as the conflict has not yielded the expected gains in public opinion polls.

 Sources told Reuters that in the initial days of the war, Netanyahu's right-wing coalition saw a potential advantage in holding elections before October. However, nearly four weeks into the conflict, the war has failed to achieve its objective of overthrowing Iran's religious leadership. Consequently, Netanyahu is now seeking to postpone immediate elections.

One way to trigger an election is by failing to pass the budget in the Knesset by March 31. According to Israeli law, this would necessitate elections within 90 days. While some of Netanyahu's confidants publicly suggested holding elections in June as the US and Israel continued to eliminate top Iranian officials one after another in the Iran war, the objective of bringing down Iran's religious rulers has not been met nearly four weeks after the war began.

Reuters reported that three members of the Netanyahu government stated that Netanyahu is seeking to postpone the election. To achieve this, he is working to secure funds for his political allies. Netanyahu is reportedly focused on getting the budget quickly passed by the finance committee within the deadline for the coming week. Netanyahu has publicly rejected proposals to move up elections during wartime since 2023. "I hope the government completes its term... meaning the election will be in September or October," he told reporters on March 12.

Although the war has shifted his focus from the Gaza dispute to a joint campaign against Iran, there has been no significant change in voter support. According to Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, about 40% of voters support Netanyahu's coalition, while another 40% support the opposition. The remaining swing votes have not shifted towards Netanyahu.

Current polling suggests the Likud party would win 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset, down from its current 34 seats. Although Likud would be the largest party, the coalition is projected to fall short of a majority, limited to 51 seats. Experts suggest Netanyahu's strategy is to buy time. Analysts say that as the war drags on, public fatigue is increasing, further reducing the likelihood of an immediate election.