Shifting Political Landscape in Koshi Province Ahead of Upcoming Elections

Biratnagar. In the 2079 elections, the CPN-UML secured victory in 14 out of the 28 constituencies in Koshi Province. The UML achieved a clean sweep in Taplejung, Panchthar, and both constituencies in Ilam. They won in Jhapa's constituencies 2, 4, and 5. In Morang, they won constituency 2, and in Sunsari, constituencies 2 and 3.

Similarly, UML candidates also won in Dhankuta, Solukhumbu, and Morang's constituency 2. Overall, the UML emerged victorious in 14 constituencies across the province.

The main rival party, the Nepali Congress, secured 8 constituencies by winning in Jhapa-1, Sankhuwasabha, Tehrathum, Morang's constituencies 1, 3, and 6, Sunsari-4, Morang-1, and Okhaldhunga.

The CPN (Maoist Centre), which finished in third place, secured only three seats in Koshi Province, winning in Morang-4, Bhojpur, and Khotang. Additionally, independent candidate Yogi Mandal won from Morang constituency 5, Ashok Rai from JSP won in Sunsari-1, and Rajendra Lingden from RPP won in Jhapa-3.

However, the situation has changed for the House of Representatives elections scheduled for February 21. Senior leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Balendra Shah of Kathmandu, has now launched an 'attack' in UML's traditional strongholds. Analysis suggests that this challenge will make it difficult for the UML to retain the seats they won in Koshi Province in the past.

The UML itself is entering the electoral arena with a strategy to secure at least 10 to 12 seats. "We are competing with the hope of winning up to 12 seats," says a UML leader. However, Sherdhan Rai, the Koshi Province In-charge and Central Secretary of the UML, refutes this, claiming that the UML will win a majority in Koshi.

On the other hand, the Nepali Congress, which had formed an alliance with the then Maoist party in the 2079 elections, failed to achieve the expected victory. This time, leaders express fear of mutual non-cooperation between the faction supporting the special general convention and the other faction.

"Our competition is with the UML, but if internal sabotage and betrayal are stopped until the end, we will be first," said a Congress leader. According to Congress sources, the only constituency currently showing a Congress victory is Morang-3. "Currently, only Morang-3 is confirmed. We are weak in Jhapa, Morang, and Sunsari. In the hills, the Bell (RSP) and Plough (CPN-UML) have worsened the situation," the leader added. Bhupendra Rai, the General Secretary of the Congress in Koshi Province, however, claims that the UML's base has weakened this time, and with others not in a position to win, Congress will be the leading party in Koshi.

The CPN (Maoist Centre) has claimed to increase its wins from the previous 3 seats to 6-7. CPN leader Indrabahadur Angbo states that the calculations will not be the same as in past elections. He says, "The organizational base of the Congress and UML, which were considered strong in the past, is fragmented. Our party is united, and the newcomers do not appear to be in a position to win. Our situation will improve significantly."

The UML and Congress are trying to secure their respective past legacies, while other parties are aiming to break that legacy and set new records. 

Tejlal Karna, a leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, claims that RSP will win a majority of seats. "The old parties have no chance of winning anywhere. Our party candidates are seen winning from unexpected places," he said. "We have a chance to win all 5 seats in Jhapa, and it's similar in Morang and Sunsari."

Furthermore, the Shram Sanskriti Party led by Harka Sampang has also been claiming a majority win. The party's spokesperson, Satya Ghale, states that they can win all the hilly districts and areas in the Terai except the southern belt.

In addition, the RPP has maintained that the victory of its chairman, Rajendra Lingden, is certain. He previously won from Jhapa-3 with support from the UML. With his own position becoming uncertain this time, there is ongoing discussion about an agreement between UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden until the last moment.

The UML and Congress are trying to secure their respective past legacies, while other parties are aiming to break that legacy and set new records.