Former Minister Kisan Shrestha Faces Uphill Battle in Bara-4 Election Amidst Shifting Alliances

Simara. Former Minister Kisan Shrestha, who won the previous election in Bara-4 by a margin of over 10,000 votes, faces a challenging election this time. Shrestha, elected in 2079 under the alliance of Nepali Congress, the then CPN (Maoist Centre), Unified Socialist, and LSP, is now competing alone against other parties. Locals suggest that although CPN-UML has a strong organizational base in Bara-4, its support base has slightly weakened following the Janji Andolan (Citizenship Movement). Meanwhile, Congress cadres are showing renewed enthusiasm as they get to vote for their candidate under the 'tree' symbol after nine years. Shrestha's electoral competitors include Shyam Babu Gupta of the Nepali Congress, Ajay Kushwaha of the CPN (Maoist Centre), Rahbar Ansari of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), and Sanju Sah of the LSP-JSP alliance. Besides Gupta, Sah, Kushwaha, and Ansari, former Inspector General of Nepal Police Sarbendra Khanal and former Chairman of the Muslim Commission Sameem Mia are also candidates in Bara-4. Commentators suggest that former IGP Khanal, who was once Shrestha's business partner, is actively campaigning door-to-door in an 'Oust Shrestha' campaign supported by UML sympathizers.

Jay Prakash Yadav, a former Constituent Assembly member from 2064, claims the main competition in Bara-4 will be between the candidates of CPN-UML and Nepali Congress. "Although everyone claims victory despite lacking a base, the main contest in Constituency No. 4 will be between Congress and UML," says Yadav. "In the northern region, the Rastriya Swatantra Party is being discussed, but winning the election will be difficult." Yadav is also a central member of the Nepal Communist Party. He comments that RSP lacks the organization and cadres in Bara-4 that its social media buzz after the Janji Andolan might suggest.

In the 2079 elections, CPN-UML received 14,788 proportional representation votes in Bara-4. Following UML, LSP received 10,911 votes, Congress 6,472, the then CPN (S) 4,691, Maoist Centre 6,561, and RSP 6,256 votes in this constituency. Considering the old base of the CPN (looking at the proportional votes of the then Maoist Centre and CPN (S)), Bara-4 has about 11,200 votes for the communist parties, but there is little enthusiasm among cadres for the candidate fielded by the party. This constituency includes 38 wards covering Jitpur Simara Sub-Metropolitan City, Parwanipur, Prasuni, Feta, and Bishrampur Rural Municipalities. Among the five local levels, UML leads in Prasuni and Parwanipur Rural Municipalities, the then Maoist Centre in Jitpur Simara, LSP in Bishrampur, and Bibeksheel Sajha Party in Feta Rural Municipality. In the 2079 election, UML candidate Iqbal Mia secured 20,336 votes here, while the alliance candidate Shrestha garnered 30,341 votes. Based on the elections of 2070, 074, and 079, Shrestha claims that CPN-UML has an independent vote base of 20,000 to 25,000 in Bara-4. He asserts his strength even when competing alone against other parties.

"I have raised the issues of Bara district and Madhesh loudly from the streets to the parliament for 3 years, and I have stood by the people in development and their joys and sorrows," said Shrestha. "This election is a bit different; we must save federalism, save the constitution, and defeat those who want to destroy it." He added, "I welcome those who have sworn to defeat me," referring to former IGP Sarbendra Khanal, with whom he previously collaborated in business, stating he holds no ill will and the election results after Falgun 21 will show the outcome.

Shyam Babu Gupta, the Nepali Congress candidate, is a new face here. Gupta, considered popular among the youth, had previously made several attempts to secure the candidacy for Jitpur Simara Deputy Mayor and Provincial Assembly member. Gupta, who was in the Gagan Thapa faction amidst recent internal party rebellion, secured the ticket by sidelining older faces. He stated that he is contesting to unite his party and incorporate the aspirations of the youth. "The country needs young leadership; my candidacy is to build the nation," said Congress candidate Gupta. "We will strive to raise a strong voice in the parliament."

The next main candidate after CPN-UML and Congress here is Rahbar Ansari of RSP. Ansari, who was a Madhesh Province Assembly member from the then CPN (Maoist Centre), joined RSP just a few days before filing his nomination. Ansari, contesting from RSP here, is a resident of Birgunj. He was elected as a member of the Madhesh Provincial Assembly from Parsa Constituency No. 1(1) in 2079. Although Ansari has support and a base in the northern parts of Jitpur Simara, including wards 1, 2, 3, and 4, the party appears weak in the southern areas. Ansari commented that he is contesting to strengthen the fight against corruption and malpractice. "Every voice of mine has created ripples in Madhesh Province and the country; this time I won't raise my voice alone; thousands like me will raise theirs," Ansari said. "Now, this voice will cause an earthquake." Ansari recently obstructed senior LSP leader Jitendra Sonal from becoming the Chief Minister of Madhesh Province.

Among the four constituencies in Bara, Constituency No. 4 has drawn everyone's attention.

This area is connected to the East-West Highway, the economic city, the Bara-Parsa Industrial Corridor, the only national park in Madhesh Province (Parsa), the Special Economic Zone Authority, the Motihari-Amlekhgunj Petroleum Pipeline, and Birgunj Metropolitan City. This area is renowned for labor employment, vegetable and food production, and fish farming. The Chure hills in the north and the fertile plains of the Madhesh region also fall within this constituency. Compared to other areas of Bara, this region offers more opportunities in education, health, and employment. Agricultural irrigation and industrial pollution are the main problems in this area.