Argentina vs. Spain: Statistical Preview of FIFA World Cup Final

• Chris Collinson

The FIFA World Cup final, to be held on Monday night, will see the reigning World Cup champion and Copa America champion Argentina face off against European champion Spain. What do the statistics say about the performance of both teams in this clash between the South American champion and the European champion? Let's look at their game in the language of numbers.

Since two of Argentina's matches went into extra time, they have played 60 minutes more football than Spain. Therefore, most statistics are presented on a per-90-minute basis for a fair comparison of both teams.

• Argentina Ahead in Lethal Finishing

Argentina has scored a tournament-high 19 goals. The main reason for this is the team's excellent finishing ability. Since losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia in their opening match of the World Cup four years ago, Argentina has scored at least two goals in 13 consecutive World Cup matches.

Although Spain has taken more shots than Argentina, they have scored 6 fewer goals. Spain has almost met its expected goals (xG) based on the number and quality of chances. They have scored 13 goals while their 'xG' is also 13.3.

Both teams have scored roughly the same number of goals from inside the penalty area. However, Argentina has been much more dangerous from outside the penalty area. They have scored 5 goals from outside the penalty area, while Spain has not scored a single goal from outside the penalty area so far.

• Spain Dominates in Defense

Although Spain has scored 6 fewer goals than Argentina, they have conceded 6 fewer goals. They have conceded only one goal in this tournament, which was in their 2-1 quarter-final victory against Belgium. Argentina, on the other hand, has conceded 7 goals. However, the statistics show that their defense is not that weak. Only three teams have faced fewer shots than Argentina, while Spain ranks among those with the lowest expected goals against per 90 minutes. This means Spain is expected to concede the fewest goals. Spain's defensive performance is on another level.

Spain's total defensive 'xG' in the World Cup is only 2.1, which is the lowest in the tournament. Uruguay, who were eliminated in the group stage, had a defensive 'xG' of 2.4.

France's attack was in excellent form throughout the World Cup, but in the semi-final, Spain made it difficult for the opposition attack to even breathe. The shot map against Spain also shows this. The opposition has only been able to take shots from mostly weak angles and low-probability positions.

• Spain Runs More, Argentina is Effective

Spain, known for its technical ability, is also a hardworking team. Although Argentina has run 13.5 kilometers more in total distance due to extra time, Spain has covered more distance per 90 minutes. Spain has made more sprints and ranks second in winning the ball in high areas, after Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay.

In contrast, Argentina has run less than all its opponents throughout the tournament. In total, their opponents have covered 17 kilometers more distance. But despite that, Argentina has won all its matches.

Due to a low-intensity playing style, Argentina is unlikely to have significant physical fatigue in the final, even after playing 60 minutes more than Spain. Resting many key players against Jordan in the final group stage match could benefit Argentina.

• Ball Possession, Crosses, and Duels

Both teams have dominated possession in most of their matches. However, Spain had only 51% possession against France in the semi-final, and Argentina had only 48% possession in their 3-0 victory against Algeria. This shows that it is not always necessary to keep the ball to win.

Spain has made more crosses overall. However, as the tournament has progressed, Argentina has also started using this tactic more. After making only 13 crosses from open play in the first four matches, Argentina has made 51 crosses in the last three matches. Lautaro Martinez's decisive goal against England also came from such a cross.

Spain is the best team in the World Cup in aerial duels. However, in terms of overall duel success, both teams are almost equal. Therefore, Argentina appears slightly stronger in ground duels.

• Messi and Yamal's Dribbling Magic

In this World Cup, neither Spain nor Argentina is among the teams that dribble the most. 25 teams have attempted more dribbles per 90 minutes than Spain. Argentina has dribbled even less. However, when they attempt it, their success rate is extremely high. Only Croatia's 63% success rate is better than Argentina's.

However, there is one exception – Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi. The two finalists have made a combined 209 dribbling attempts in this World Cup. Of these, 90 attempts (43%) belong to these two star players. Spain's teenage winger Yamal has made the most dribbling attempts in the tournament.

Similarly, after Brazil's Vinicius Jr., Argentina's captain Messi is second among players who challenge opponents with the ball. For this reason, Monday's final is not just a clash between two teams, but also a competition between two different styles of world football and two extraordinary talents.

(BBC)