US Diplomat's Nepal Visit Signals Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics in South Asia

Kathmandu. Alice Wells, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs in the Trump administration, is currently on a visit to Nepal. This marks the first high-level visit to Nepal since the formation of the government led by Rastriya Swatantra Party senior leader Balendra (Balen) Shah. Historically, India has maintained significant influence over Nepal's diplomacy.

Typically, India would conduct a high-level visit to congratulate a newly formed government, and while India had planned such a visit this time, the United States has taken the lead.

Foreign Minister Khanal met with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar while visiting Mauritius on Chaitra 27. During that meeting, Minister Jaishankar indicated he would soon send the Foreign Secretary to Nepal. India had prepared for a secretary-level visit followed by a state visit for Prime Minister Balen. A Foreign Ministry official stated, 'Preparations for a high-level visit from India were underway and internal discussions were ongoing, but the US high-level visit occurred first.'

Relations between the US and India have been strained recently. Amidst these differences, India is observing Wells' visit with keen interest. An expert on Indian affairs noted, 'India is analyzing Wells' visit closely. It will only send its own representative to Nepal after assessing the outcomes of this visit.'

Indian Professor S.D. Muni, an expert on foreign affairs, has suggested that New Delhi should carefully listen to the statements Wells makes in Kathmandu. On the day of her arrival, Professor Muni shared his advice via 'X', citing her testimony before the US Congressional Committee on Foreign Affairs: 'The United States does not seek to dominate Nepal, nor does China or any other country.'

Muni interprets 'any other country' as a reference to India. He noted that during the early Cold War, the US also attempted to control India's influence in Nepal.

Dr. Nihar Nayak, a researcher at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and an expert on Nepal-India relations, stated that Wells' visit will not make much difference to India. He said, 'Nepal-India relations are unique. Wells' visit will not change much, but it is a signal that the US intends to increase its engagement in Nepal.'

He added that while the US is expanding its influence in Nepal, there is no reason for India to be concerned.

During a meeting of the US Congressional Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs on February 11, Wells further stated, 'India has over a billion people and occupies the subcontinent. Any hostile power dominating South Asia could pressure the global economy. The United States must prevent this and keep the region free and open.'

At that time, Wells added, 'Just last week, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed on a historic trade framework, and two days ago, the Trump administration signed a trade agreement with Bangladesh, providing US exporters access to a market of 175 million people. Beyond trade, the three strategic capabilities the Trump administration is utilizing are defense cooperation, targeted investment, and diplomacy.'

She mentioned that following the trade understanding between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, focus must now shift to other shared priorities, including reducing trade barriers with India, one of the world's largest economies, and paving the way for fuller cooperation.

She also identified Pakistan as another important partner in the region, expressing a desire to work with Pakistan to help realize the potential of its significant mineral resources. She expressed confidence that the counter-terrorism assistance provided by the US would help Pakistan address its internal security challenges.

Former Ambassador Vijay Kant Karna describes this as a routine visit, noting that had it not been for the elections, she would have visited around February-March. 'It was delayed slightly due to the elections in Nepal,' he said.

He also believes that the visit by the official overseeing South and Central Asian affairs will not affect India. 'It might affect China due to Tibet, but it will not affect India,' he added. 'Wells visited India a month ago before coming to Nepal. India and the US have good relations, and their interests in Nepal are aligned.'

However, Pramod Jaiswal, Research Director at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement, argues that if the US succeeds in establishing its influence in Nepal, India will be the most affected, followed by China.

'This visit is a signal that the US is trying to establish its influence in Nepal,' he said. 'Previously, such high-level visits immediately after a government formation did not come from the US; they came from India or China. But this time, a distant neighbor has visited, which is a significant signal.'

Wells also visited India from Falgun 17 to 19. She then visited Bangladesh before arriving in Nepal. This is reportedly being viewed strategically by India.

The US appears determined to end the dominance of any single country in South Asia. Experts believe the US is showing increased activity, particularly to curb China's growing influence in the region.

According to the Indian news agency ANI, before visiting India, Wells stated at a US event that India is a key partner in US efforts against China, helping not only to keep China out of the Indo-Pacific region but also to prevent its unilateral dominance.