High-Stakes US-Iran Talks Begin in Islamabad Amid Regional Tensions

As the US and Iran seek ways to end the war, Islamabad is hosting these talks. However, deep mistrust and regional tensions put the negotiations at risk.

Islamabad. Sidewalks are being painted, security has been tightened to the extreme, and a mix of excitement and anxiety hangs over Pakistan's capital. This is because a crucial meeting that will draw the world's attention is taking place here this weekend.

This dialogue comes exactly 6 weeks after the coordinated US and Israeli attack on Iran that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. That event triggered a multi-national war, in which thousands have been killed, the world's most important oil route has been closed, and energy prices have skyrocketed. Amidst this, talks between top US and Iranian officials are taking place in Islamabad on Saturday.

The meeting is being held just days after Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. However, this agreement is already under pressure due to both sides' differing interpretations of the ceasefire terms and Israel's intense bombardment in Lebanon.

Since the war began on February 28, due to Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbors other than Israel, the world's largest energy export hub and center for trade, tourism, and innovation has been in fear. Tehran's decision to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is supplied in peacetime) and allow entry only to ships from countries with which it has agreements has shaken global markets and pushed energy prices to record highs.

This weekend, senior representatives of the key parties to the war will gather in Pakistan's lush capital at the foot of the Margalla Hills.

Here is everything you need to know about the upcoming talks in Islamabad - who is expected to participate, where the talks will be held, what is on the agenda, what the potential obstacles are, and what the world can expect from this.

• When and where will the talks be held?

Talks are starting in Islamabad this weekend after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif formally invited both sides for a full resolution of the war.

The White House has confirmed that formal discussions will begin on Saturday morning (local time).

Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated on April 8 that the talks could last for 15 days. This suggests the possibility that some delegates may stay in Islamabad beyond Saturday or return for another round of talks.

The delegations will stay at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. Located in the capital's Red Zone, where key government buildings and embassies are situated, this hotel has been reserved from Wednesday evening until Sunday, and guests have been asked to vacate the premises. The talks are also expected to be held at this hotel.

Officials have declared April 9 and 10 as public holidays in the federal capital. However, police, hospitals, and essential services will remain operational.

Security has been tightened throughout the city. The Red Zone has been sealed, and the main entry points to Islamabad have also been closed.

• Who is participating in the talks?

The White House has confirmed that the US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by President Donald Trump's top envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

The Iranian delegation is expected to be led by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. It is unclear whether any representative from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is leading Tehran's military efforts in the war, will participate. Ghalibaf himself is a former IRGC commander.

However, Pakistani officials have cautioned that nothing is certain until the delegations actually arrive.

Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam provided a brief update on 'X', stating that the Iranian delegation would arrive on April 9. He wrote, 'Despite skepticism among the Iranian people as Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire to derail diplomatic initiatives, the team is coming for serious talks based on the 10 points proposed by Iran.' However, he deleted the post within a few hours.

• What will the format of the talks be?

Depending on when the teams arrive, Prime Minister Sharif is expected to hold separate preliminary meetings with both sides on Friday or Saturday morning.

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who has been involved in mediating throughout this conflict and meeting both sides, will facilitate the main talks on Saturday.

It remains unclear whether Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir will participate. Both the Foreign Ministry and the military's media wing did not respond to Al Jazeera's questions.

On Saturday, the US and Iranian teams will sit in separate rooms, and Pakistani officials will relay messages between them.

JD Vance's participation in the talks is being viewed as significant. Iranian officials are skeptical of further dialogue with Witkoff and Kushner. While talks were ongoing with them in Muscat and Geneva in February, the US began bombing Iran.

They consider Vance to be more open and flexible to ending the conflict. Seen as a presidential candidate for 2028, Vance is a leader who remains cautious about long-term US military involvement in West Asia.

Officials said that at least 20 journalists have been granted permission out of more than 3 dozen visa applications from international media. Additionally, it has been confirmed that a 30-member US security team has already arrived in Islamabad.

• Why Pakistan?

In recent weeks, Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran. Despite past tensions with both countries, Islamabad currently maintains a relationship that allows it to work with both.

Intensifying diplomatic efforts in recent days, Army Chief Asim Munir has held multiple phone conversations with US and Iranian leaders.

Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer-long border with Iran and has the second-largest Shia Muslim population in the world after Iran, which increases its importance for Tehran.

Unlike many countries in West Asia, Pakistan does not have US military bases, which has made Pakistan more credible in the eyes of the Iranians. At the same time, Pakistan has been a major non-NATO ally of the US since 2004.

However, the position of the US Ambassador in Islamabad has often remained vacant. Since 2018, Donald Blome was the only full ambassador who served from 2022 until early 2025. Currently, this position is vacant.

Previously, US President George W. Bush visited Pakistan in March 2006, and Vice President Joe Biden visited in January 2011.

JD Vance's expected visit after 15 years is focused on talks to end the war rather than bilateral relations. It is a very rare and significant event for a US Vice President to visit a country where there is no US ambassador.

• What is on the agenda?

Both sides are entering the talks with major differences.

Iran's 10-point peace proposal includes demands such as Iranian monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US combat troops from West Asia, and a halt to military operations against Iran-affiliated armed groups.

The US has not formally accepted these terms, although Trump has called the 10-point plan implementable. On the other hand, the White House has claimed that Iran is ready to hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium, which spokesperson Karoline Leavitt called a non-negotiable demand. However, Iran has not officially admitted that it is ready to give up uranium.

Another major issue of contention is Lebanon. On Wednesday, Israel carried out a massive bombardment in Lebanon, killing more than 200 people, which is the most intense attack since the current war began.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi has warned that Tehran could break the ceasefire if Israeli attacks continue. He stated that the US must choose between a ceasefire or a continued war through Israel. He cited the Pakistani Prime Minister's statement, asserting that the ceasefire must include stopping attacks in Lebanon and the entire region.

However, speaking in Budapest, Vance stated that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire terms, a stance also taken by Trump and the White House.

Masood Khalid, former Pakistani Ambassador to China, told Al Jazeera that the atmosphere had already soured before the talks began. 'Israel is playing the role of a spoiler to undermine this process,' he said. 'The purpose of its continuous bombardment in Lebanon is to harden the positions of the parties and disrupt the talks. At this stage, we can only be cautiously optimistic because the talks will certainly be complex and cumbersome, and may extend beyond the 15-day deadline.'

Sahar Khan, an analyst at the Washington DC-based Institute for Global Affairs, agrees.

'The lack of trust is the biggest obstacle,' she told Al Jazeera. 'Right now, both Washington and Tehran want to show they have won by setting maximum demands, but if this ceasefire holds and they actually meet, that will be the most important step.'

• What are the potential outcomes and obstacles?

According to analysts, because there is deep mistrust between both sides, the possibility of an immediate final agreement is very low. In his deleted post, Iranian Ambassador Amiri Moghadam hinted that Tehran views the Israeli attack as an attempt to disrupt the talks.

Lebanon is becoming the main point of contention. According to former Ambassador Khalid, the explicit mention of Lebanon in Sharif's invitation indicates that this issue had already been discussed with Washington.

'If Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected Pakistan's position, President Trump also later kept Lebanon outside the scope of the ceasefire,' the former ambassador said.

'On the other hand, Iran is determined to stop the Israeli attack in Lebanon, and this has the support of some key countries like France. The key is now in President Trump's hands.'

Analyst Khan described Lebanon as a potential 'breaking point' between the US and Israel.

'A sustainable solution is only possible if Israel stops attacking. At all stages of the talks, Israel itself has broken it by attacking Iran. Ultimately, it depends on the US: either abandon the ceasefire and attack Iran, or force Israel to comply with the ceasefire,' she said.

Dania Thafer, Executive Director of the Gulf International Forum, said that Israel's absence from the talks is a structural challenge.

'Israel is a party to the war, and it has the greatest interest in continuing this war. Therefore, it must also be part of the talks and the final agreement,' she said. 'Otherwise, they can always argue that they do not agree with the terms of any agreement.'

Khalid suggested that the hardline positions of both sides could soften over time. 'Some agreement between the US and Iran on the nuclear issue and a multilateral understanding to open the Strait of Hormuz could be possible, as both sides are war-weary and want a break,' he said.

But he is skeptical about becoming a guarantor of peace. 'No single country will be ready to become a guarantor on behalf of the US or Israel,' he said. 'China cannot take the risk of guaranteeing American and Israeli behavior.'

He added that any agreement would require the support of major Middle Eastern nations, permanent members of the UN Security Council, and a binding resolution.

According to analyst Khan, it would be premature to talk about a guarantor right now, because China's presence is not necessary in this round of talks.

She said, 'A ceasefire is a process that moves slowly, and the first goal is to build trust. If the US can keep Israel in check and prevent it from attacking Lebanon during these talks, that would be a major achievement, and Trump could take it as his victory.'

Al Jazeera