Jhapa-5: The Electoral Ground Zero Where Oli Faces Unprecedented Challenge from Balen Shah

Damak. Damak, the commercial hub of Eastern Nepal. With the gentle morning sun, a distinct aroma wafts here, that of 'Bhakka'. 'Neupane Khajaghar' is located right at the main junction of Damak Municipality. The Bhakka here is not just an identity of the East; lately, it has also become the main gathering spot for political discussions.

The eatery is very crowded from early morning. There is a queue of people enjoying hot Bhakka, Samosa, and Jalebi-Puri. But according to the proprietor Sanjeev Neupane, this crowd is a bit different now. "Previously, only known locals used to come," says Neupane, "but now there is a rush of new faces every day."

The reason for this is the House of Representatives election scheduled for February 21. Jhapa Constituency No. 5 is where the heavyweight leader of the country, CPN-UML Chairman and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, is facing a direct contest with the senior leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Prime Ministerial candidate Balendra Shah (Balen).

This electoral heat has warmed up not only the dusty East-West Highway of Damak but also the small, smooth inner lanes and tea stalls. According to Neupane, cadres from UML and RSP have flocked to this constituency from various places.

Journalists and YouTubers are also frequently visiting. The Mayuri and Tuk-Tuk drivers here are extremely busy. "People are coming from everywhere; there's no telling where from," Neupane described the situation in Damak.

Jhapa-5 is Oli's legacy, his fortress. But this time, he feels a tough challenge within this fortress. In past elections, when Oli came to Jhapa, he would hold a large public rally, descend from a helicopter, wave his hands, and leave. But this time, the scene has changed. Oli is now reaching every house, neighborhood, lane, and alley of Damak.

Sushil Dahal, met near the Krishna Mandir in Damak Municipality, says, "He is giving all his priority to Jhapa-5 now. He is going door-to-door listening to old grievances. The votes that seemed spoiled earlier, which he used to just wave at, now seem to be improving as he reaches the voters' doorsteps."

Locals in Jhapa-5 say that Oli is gradually improving the previously spoiled votes. "In the last election, he used to hold one rally in Damak and wave before leaving, but this time he is going door-to-door. He is trying to win back those who were upset with KP Oli," Dahal says.

Dhruv Ghimire, who has been in UML for a long time, says he hasn't felt such a challenge since 2064 BS (2007 AD). "We will vote for UML, we are UML by birth, but there were many complaints about the people surrounding KP Oli. This time, since he came home to ask for votes, we have told him," he says. According to Ghimire, until 15 days ago, Balen had a strong momentum of over 70 percent here, but now that support seems to be only 50-55 percent. "If he can win back the votes and hearts, Oli might win, otherwise, it looks very difficult," he said.

• Grievances against Balen

When Balen, established as the Mayor of Kathmandu, arrived in Jhapa-5 as a Prime Ministerial candidate, a storm erupted among the youth here. But as the election nears, a new complaint has started to be heard—Balen's physical absence.

This very reason has left some locals, who were disappointed with Oli, undecided about whom to vote for, which seems to benefit Oli. "We had decided to vote for Balen, but we haven't even seen his face yet. How can we vote? We hear he toured other neighborhoods, but he hasn't come here. How can we vote for someone who hasn't even come to ask for votes?" says Devika Niraula from Kamal Rural Municipality.

According to Niraula, most voters complain that Balen has not paid any attention to them. "Many here said they would vote if they just saw his face, but there is concern about how he will look after winning and going to Kathmandu if we don't see him now," she said.

Local Kamal Anghango had voted for RPP in the previous election. "This time I was waiting to vote for either the bell or the soil (UML). But I must meet the person I am going to vote for. Balen has failed in that regard. That's why I haven't finalized my vote. If I meet him, I will tell him this," Anghango told us.

Many people in Jhapa-5 who intended to vote for Balen were found complaining about not being able to see him.

The attraction towards Balen here is strong in digital media but weaker in physical door-to-door campaigning, which can directly benefit other parties or Oli.

• UML Cadres from Across the Country in Oli's Constituency

Jhapa-5 is no longer just Jhapa's concern; it has become a matter of prestige for UML cadres nationwide. Damak's hotels are currently 'packed'. Kumar Neupane, proprietor of Purweli Guest House, says, "There is a flood of UML cadres; for the last week, it has been difficult to find a room."

Office bearers from UML's sister organizations like the National Youth Association, ANASU, ANMSANG, etc., are found in this area. "This area is linked to UML's self-respect; since our Chairman himself is contesting here, leaders and cadres have come spontaneously from all over the country. We don't care about other constituencies; we are working for KP Oli to win," says a student leader met in Damak. He mentioned that UML has mobilized youth and women particularly in this area. "We are reaching from tea stalls to fields, looking at the geography. We are trying to stop the propaganda spread against UML and Oli," he shared.

Similarly, UML has also deployed youths in Jhapa, saying 'anything can happen' in Jhapa. UML cadres from Jhapa say that the Chakre Milan Gang is in large numbers in Damak. Besides sister organizations, artists close to UML are also abundant in Jhapa. They are trying to create a positive atmosphere for Oli. Hotel operators in Damak also report that rooms are mostly full. "There is a flood of UML cadres; business is good because of the election. They have been arriving continuously for the last week," says Kumar Neupane, proprietor of Purweli Guest House.

Other Candidates Overshadowed as Ranjit Boosts His Profile

Amidst the high-profile clash between Oli and Balen, other candidates have been overshadowed here. Despite being overshadowed by the personalities of Oli and Balen, the candidate from the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN), Tamang, is aggressively campaigning.

"When both Balen and Oli are extremes, I am the alternative. I am local and young too," he said while campaigning for votes in Damak. Although locals have given Tamang a good response, his contest appears pale in front of Oli and Balen.

During a door-to-door campaign in Damak Municipality, while Tamang was giving feedback to journalists, local women were chanting 'Victory to the Bell'. However, he is campaigning by strengthening his personal image rather than his organizational strength.

Mandhara Chimariya, the candidate from the Nepali Congress, has also been sidelined here. Despite being socially active, some active Congress cadres are reportedly shifting towards RSP, believing she won't win this time, making it difficult for her to even retain votes here.

"Personally, there is no issue with her, but this time she has become a piece of meat between two stones [caught in the middle]," says Ramsharan Kafle, a local Congress leader from Maharanijhoda.

Sameer Tamang is also a candidate from the Labour Culture Party in this constituency. He is most likely to secure the ethnic votes of Rai and Limbu communities here. However, we found that he is not in the main competition. "Rai votes from this constituency will largely go to Sameer, not because of him, but because Harka Sampang has shown more interest in this area," says Fernandez Rai, a local from Bhutlung in Kamal Rural Municipality.

• A Dark Side to the Door-to-Door Campaign

There is also a dark side to this electoral fervor. A kind of fear is visible among local voters. Some UML leaders themselves are dissatisfied with Oli's style. "The Chairman Comrade could not break free from the circle of a few limited individuals. It doesn't matter just remembering during elections. They didn't pay attention when we reported that the ground situation was deteriorating. It's no use trying to gather votes now," says a UML leader from Gauriganj.

Another reason for the erosion of Oli's support here is the style of the election campaign. Youth Union cadres and members of the National Volunteer Force are seen campaigning more than local leaders. "They have brought thugs who don't even recognize us, who verbally abuse and even physically assault those who say they won't vote. He will go to Kathmandu after the election. We are the local people. Can you rule by bullying in a local area? We are unable to ask for votes anymore," said that leader.

What that leader said was also evident in Oli's door-to-door campaign.

Subodh Rimal (name changed), a local teacher, says that threatening or attacking those who speak against UML and Oli by the Volunteer Force has become commonplace in Jhapa-5. "There is no situation here to vote elsewhere; if you speak up in front of them, your life is in danger," he said. Local journalists and social leaders in Jhapa also state that thugs are part of Oli's door-to-door team.

Voters Feel Unsafe Even from the Volunteer Force Accompanying UML Chairman Oli

• Voters' Voice: Irrigation Needed More Than View Tower

Damak voters are currently seeking a definition of development. An 83-year-old female voter says, "I have been voting since 2018-19 BS (1961-62 AD). Leaders come during elections like a storm, show no face after winning. I don't like that Balen demolished someone else's house."

Independent citizen Bimal Ganesh's anger is slightly different. "The view tower was built, but for what? There is no doctor or medicine in a village. A bridge has been stranded for 15 years. What did the people get even when the Prime Minister and Speaker were from their own district?" he asks.

Elderly farmers in Mujurbhitta of Kamal Rural Municipality also need irrigation more than a view tower. "The road was built, but there is no water in the fields. We have to use motors for farming, and even those are at risk of being stolen. We need people who work, not just speeches," they say.

According to a female voter from Damak-4, the younger generation is leaning towards the 'Bell' (RSP), but the older generation still holds affection for 'K.P. Ba' (Oli). "K.P. Ba is getting old, it would be better to give a chance to the youth now," she says.

The Ratopati team spent two days in Jhapa-5 constituency. Based on this, it can be said that this area is not just an electoral field; it has become a Kurukshetra of ideological and power struggle between the old and the new. On one side is Oli, carrying the organization, experience of power, and an army of cadres who have set up 'camp' here, and on the other side is Balen, carrying the wave of social media, hunger for change, and the hope of the younger generation.

As the Bhakka was cooking at the Damak junction, the future of Jhapa-5 was also cooking. How much of his spoiled vote could Oli mend? How much could Balen convert his 'invisible' presence into votes? And how many votes could young leaders like Ranjit pull? The answer to all these questions will be given by the ballot boxes on February 21.

Video/Photos: Manoj Khadka