Ground Zero Report: Chitwan-2 By-Election Dynamics Favor Ravi Lamichhane Despite Strong Challenge from Nepali Congress

Kathmandu. Chitwan begins after crossing the bridge from Devghat Dham in Tanahun. During a field report, Ratopati met an elderly man, nearly 60 years old (name withheld), who was busy preparing vegetables grown on his farm to take to the market. When asked about the election atmosphere, he said, 'Many here say 'Ghanti' (Bell symbol), but I am going to vote for Meena.'

This area, which falls under Bharatpur Metropolitan City, is part of Chitwan Constituency No. 2. He was the first person Ratopati surveyed in this constituency. He stated he would vote for Meena due to her personality and contributions.

Chitwan-2 is the birthplace of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which is seeing a nationwide wave. Currently, RSP candidates are listed among those likely to win in the majority of constituencies across the country. Even candidates who do not know the main candidate often mention the 'Ghanti' (Bell) symbol. The key person who contributed to bringing about this wave is Rabi Lamichhane.

However, Meena Kharel is emerging as a challenger to Rabi Lamichhane in his own constituency. Kharel, 53, the candidate from the Nepali Congress (NC), is currently seen as the main competitor. Nevertheless, the survey indicates that Meena's victory in the current scenario is difficult.

Surveys were conducted with local voters in market areas under this constituency, including Ramnagar, Kshetrapur, Pulchowk, Hakimchowk in Bharatpur, as well as Mugling, Fisling, Kurintar in Ichhakamana, and Amptari, Jutpani, Padampur, Shaktikhor in Kalika.

During this process, we asked about individual opinions and the electoral atmosphere in the respective areas from about 200 people. The survey shows the dominance of the RSP in this constituency. Despite this, the Congress appears capable of positioning itself as a competitor.

Rabi Lamichhane, the RSP chairman, is the candidate in this constituency. There are 23 candidates, including Meena Kumari Kharel from the Congress, Asmin Ghimire from the UML, and Pratap Gurung from the CPN. About 60 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Rabi.

Thirty percent of the participants said they would vote for Meena, while about 10 percent named other parties and candidates. Even among those who said they would not vote for Rabi, many predicted that he would ultimately win.

Rabi's Craze Weaker in Metropolitan Area

Chitwan-2 includes 10 wards of Bharatpur Metropolitan City. Comparatively, Rabi's popularity appears slightly weaker in the metropolitan area than in other areas. While many here also said they would vote for Rabi, the psychology observed is that voters are supporting him because others are unlikely to win.

However, Rabi's craze remains equally strong in the Ichhakamana and Kalika areas. Many who contacted us cited arguments such as Rabi being 'prevented from working' or 'trapped.' About 70 percent of voters here stated they would vote for Rabi.

Meena's Three Strategies to Woo Voters

Congress candidate Meena has adopted three main strategies to expand her influence in Chitwan-2. First, promoting her personality and past work. Second, marketing the improvements seen within the Congress party. Third, leveraging the controversy surrounding Rabi Lamichhane and the possibility of a nullified election.

Meena herself is a local social worker. The 53-year-old has long been active against issues like violence against women and social anomalies. She has been involved in party politics since the Panchayat era and participated in the movement to reduce school fees back then. She is using this identity and personal connection to woo voters. Even voters who said they would vote for Meena recalled her personality and contributions.

Meena is effectively publicizing the reforms taking place within the Congress. She is trying to convince the public that the new policies and leadership adopted during the special general convention held from Poush 27 to Magh 1 can bring change to the country. She also appears to be trying to win back those who left the Congress in the past.

However, the impact of leadership change within the Congress appears weak in the voter survey. Very few among those who said they would vote for Congress mentioned this issue.

The Congress has made the allegations against RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane—that he might not be able to participate in parliament even if elected, and that his parliamentary seat could be revoked if proven guilty—a major weapon. This issue appears to have a significant impact. In our survey, many voters who said they would 'vote for Congress' cited this weakness of Rabi.

Rabi's Dual Strength: Past Margin and National Wave

Rabi appears to be taking this constituency lightly. There are two reasons behind this: first, the past vote margin. And second, the national wave.

In the 2079 election, Rabi won by securing 49,300 votes, creating a margin of 34,312 votes over the Congress candidate, Umesh Shrestha.

This margin increased further in the by-election held after the citizenship controversy. Rabi increased this vote to 54,176. In contrast, the second-place Congress candidate, Jitanarayan Shrestha, received only 11,214 votes. That is, in the by-election, Rabi increased his margin to 42,962.

Due to this previous margin, Rabi seems very comfortable in this constituency. While top leaders of other parties are heavily focused on their constituencies, Rabi visits his area only occasionally, adopting a strategy of addressing corner meetings when he does visit, rather than going door-to-door. In his place, Chitwan District Chairman Krishna Prasad Bhusal has been leading the door-to-door campaign.

Another reason why Rabi does not feel a 'threat' in his constituency this time is the nationwide wave for the RSP. The RSP has not only set a target of winning 151 seats nationwide, but various surveys also show the RSP becoming the largest party. In this situation, Rabi does not seem overly concerned about having to lose in his own constituency.

Although the main competitor, Congress, has not listed this constituency among its potentially winnable areas, local Congress leaders say that this time they are trying to give a jolt to the nationwide RSP wave by reducing the vote margin to below 10,000 from Rabi's constituency.

Other candidates are not visible on the ground. While the UML, CPN, and others are trying to retain their traditional votes, Chitwan-2 does not appear to be in a situation where these votes will secure a victory or be decisive in the win or loss of any candidate.