Analysis: The Opportunistic Nature of Nepal's Urban Middle Class and Shifting Political Allegiances

The middle class in Nepal, particularly urban citizens, consistently appears to champion change. Past election results confirm this tendency. They strive to present themselves as the 'intellectual' and 'transformative force' through street protests, social media, and voting. Observing past trends, this class often shifts its political color as the balance of power and self-interest changes. What psychology drives this behavior?

Karl Marx, a century and a half ago, described the middle class as inherently 'opportunistic' in character. Marx argued that the political nature of the middle class is 'unstable,' leaning towards immediate gain and benefit rather than a fixed ideological foundation. To preserve its class existence, this group always prefers to present itself as a 'staunch supporter of change.'

Analyzing today's Nepali politics, especially voting patterns in urban areas, Marx's definition from a century and a half ago aligns significantly. Nepal's main cities are known centers for the middle class and elites. Understanding the political behavior of this class is crucial to comprehending the past Maoist wave and the current rise of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

• The Maoist Wave and Opportunistic Transformation

After the decade-long armed conflict ceased and the peace process began, the urban middle class's inclination towards the Maoist party not only increased but their fascination with the Maoists was astonishing. Former staunch Pancha members, royalists, retired high-ranking officials, and ex-army and police officers suddenly appeared more revolutionary than the Maoists who had fought the war. The election results clearly reflected this, as urban voters overwhelmingly elected the Maoists.

However, as Marx suggested, this class's support was not for ideology or long-term change, but rooted in self-interest and security. The entry of figures like Surya Sen Oli, a prominent personality from the Panchayat era, into the mainstream of the Maoists was a direct result of this. When the Maoists failed to fulfill their interests or when these figures fell out of favor with the Maoist establishment, the same urban class pushed the Maoists to the streets. The current fragile state of the Maoists in urban areas is hidden in the unstable and self-serving character of this middle class.

It should not be hesitated that the current attraction towards the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is a new version of the 2007 (2064 BS) Maoist wave. The RSP is a product of the political ineptitude and lack of seriousness of the so-called old parties. Beyond constructing a narrative of being 'new,' it lacks any novel or innovative thinking, let alone political ideology or agenda.

• Repetition of History

The German philosopher Hegel stated, 'All great events and personages in world history appear, so to speak, twice.' Karl Marx refined this, adding, 'Yes, history repeats itself. First as tragedy, then as farce.'

The then-Maoist party was forged through the People's War and the sacrifice of thousands. Its revolutionary ideology had the potential to change the future. But, entangled in parliamentary games and the scramble for power, it forgot the movement, the sacrifice of martyrs, and its class foundation. As the party became centered on individual self-interest, the Maoists' 'great objective' decayed like wood infested with termites.

Along with it, the common citizen's dream of a new Nepal turned to dust. This was the tragedy of Nepali history.

It should not be hesitated that the current attraction towards the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is a new version of the 2007 (2064 BS) Maoist wave. The RSP is a product of the political ineptitude and lack of seriousness of the so-called old parties. Beyond constructing a narrative of being 'new,' it lacks any novel or innovative thinking, let alone political ideology or agenda.

The RSP has currently become like the mythical King Midas, where everything it touches turns to gold. A strange paradox has begun where individuals who faced criticism in other parties until yesterday become pure, new, and novel the moment they hold the RSP's bell symbol.

Figures once reviled now stand as saviors of the RSP in the guise of leaders and candidates. However, the entry of anyone and their purification in a party without an ideological foundation does not make politics policy-driven; it only makes it personality-driven.

The trend of nominating candidates based on TikTok popularity, celebrity influence, and politically inexperienced activists clearly shows that the RSP is clinging to popularity-driven politics. This very trend is repeating itself in Nepali politics as a farce.

• Politics Without Ideology

Since the Rastriya Swatantra Party is not established on the foundation of its own mature ideology and principles, the lack of ideological and theoretical clarity within it is not surprising. They claim their ideology is constitutional socialism and a progressive center. Unfortunately, such terminology does not exist on the world political stage, nor in dictionaries. Using such deceptive terms in the name of ideology is intellectual fraud.

In politics, ideology or principle is not merely a cosmetic tool. It is the basis of a political party's existence and identity. Ideology is the weapon that differentiates one party from others. It unites and mobilizes the ranks of cadres towards a specific objective. It gives hope for the future to the general public.

Despite the great importance of principles and ideology, when it comes to clarity, RSP leaders and cadres argue: 'What good did having principles do for the old parties when the country's condition remains the same?'

Moreover, ideology and principles determine the roadmap for issues of state governance, such as education, health policy, tax systems, economic policy, and international diplomacy. On the other hand, politics without ideology develops the party and the government into a playground for a select few individuals.

Confusion arises regarding the question of what 'delivery' the party will provide upon entering government. This allows opportunistic behavior to dominate the ranks of leaders and cadres. Public disappointment increases, and popular support may shift direction again.

Despite the great importance of principles and ideology, when it comes to clarity, RSP leaders and cadres argue: 'What good did having principles do for the old parties when the country's condition remains the same?' There might be partial truth in this statement, but the absence of ideology is thousands of times more dangerous than having an ideology.

The irony is that the answer to every such policy question posed to them ends with the counter-question, 'What did the old parties do?'

Political science considers an ideal goal a mandatory condition for every party. In its absence, politics becomes aimless. When an individual replaces principle and ideology, intellectual debate is deemed unnecessary. Dissenters and critics are portrayed as enemies.

Policy questions are displaced by emotional responses. A narrative is built that the old parties and the old system are completely broken, increasing distrust in the democratic process. The silence of the leadership is taken as strength and intellect. The words of those in power become sacred scripture for the general cadres.

The direct implication of such a situation in politics is a journey towards fascism. Ideology-less popularity breeds fascism and endangers democracy.

• Talk of Good Governance and Corruption

For good governance, the current structures of the state appear to need restructuring from the roots, which requires a clear roadmap. Retrofitting the existing structures to bring about good governance and prosperity is almost impossible.

We must understand that good governance and ending corruption are not ideologies; they are minimum conditions for the state. Corruption is not merely linked to moral questions; it is fundamentally tied to the economic structure.

The paradox of the middle class becomes clear here too. If their desire was truly for good governance and an end to corruption, they would reject individuals brought in overnight as candidates from the old parties.

What plan does the RSP have to change this structure? There is no debate. What is more serious is that those who misused state systems and procedures yesterday are now flocking to the RSP. Observing this trend, their claims about good governance and ending corruption must be doubted.

On the other hand, the paradox of the middle class becomes clear here too. If their desire was truly for good governance and an end to corruption, they would reject individuals brought in overnight as candidates from the old parties. However, accepting them as saviors clearly shows that the middle class's desire is linked to self-interest, not good governance.

• What Now?

The cycle of Nepali politics shows that as long as a party does not operate on a clear ideological foundation, this fascination of the middle class will be fleeting. As Leon Trotsky said, 'Because the middle class is not economically independent, it can never be politically independent. It is always in search of some messiah who gives the illusion of saving it from immediate crisis.'

The current crowd and attraction of the middle class towards the RSP may only be momentary, as Trotsky suggested. When this class's ambitions and personal interests are hurt, this class will separate from the RSP just as it separated from the Maoists.

If the RSP cannot establish itself on the foundation of some political philosophy soon and remains in a state of confusion, it could vanish from the political firmament at any moment. World history teaches that while populism may bring momentary applause and power, principles and ideology are necessary to stand firm like a steadfast pillar politically.