India Reassesses Ties with Bangladesh as BNP Takes Power, Signaling Shift from Awami League Reliance

A few years ago, an election without the Awami League and the ascent of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) to power was viewed as a major setback for India's foreign policy. However, now, India appears to have left no stone unturned in welcoming Tarique Rahman and his BNP to power. India did not express any 'objection' even to an election without the Awami League. Furthermore, India is currently not openly supporting the Awami League either.

Does this signal that India has reconsidered its stance regarding the political upheaval in Bangladesh in July 2024?

The issue is not just about the BNP. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri is also meeting with the Ameer of Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami, Shafiqur Rahman, and pictures of these meetings are being posted on social media. Publicly acknowledging a meeting with Jamaat is itself a significant turning point.

Following the BNP's victory in the general election held in Bangladesh on February 12 under Tarique Rahman's leadership, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wasted no time in extending congratulations on February 13.

After posting the congratulatory message on X, Prime Minister Modi also spoke with Tarique Rahman over the phone. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla attended Tarique Rahman's swearing-in ceremony, and Prime Minister Modi also wrote a letter inviting the new Prime Minister of Bangladesh to visit India.

• Tarique Rahman's Dilemma

It is clear from Prime Minister Modi's behavior that India is showing warmth towards Tarique Rahman and wishes to move past the strained relationship seen during the interim government period.

However, there has been no public display of similar warmth from Tarique Rahman's side so far. A day later, the BNP's official X handle reposted Prime Minister Modi's post and offered thanks, but Tarique Rahman himself said nothing on his personal social media.

This does not mean Tarique Rahman was inactive after the victory. Even after winning, he was involved in many political activities in Dhaka.

On February 15, a post was made from the official X account of Shafiqur Rahman, Ameer of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami. The post informed that BNP chief Tarique Rahman had visited his official residence to meet him.

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has been an ally of the BNP, but in this election, it was a competitor. Jamaat-e-Islami is considered anti-India on many fronts because it did not support the Bangladesh Liberation War.

According to experts on Bangladesh affairs, it is not easy for Tarique Rahman to send a message that the BNP government is working in India's interest while opposing Jamaat, which has been against India.

Nirupama Subramanian, who closely follows South Asian geopolitics, says, 'Tarique Rahman and India do not have a very good past. From 2001 to 2006, when Khaleda Zia was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, the then Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh told me that Tarique Rahman was the 'Sanjay Gandhi' there. But now India has no better alternative than Tarique. India had stated it would talk to the elected government, and now the people have given their mandate. In such a situation, India had no choice but to welcome it.'

• The Jamaat Challenge

In reality, with Sheikh Hasina's Awami League out of Bangladesh politics, the BNP is being viewed as a centrist party. The BNP cannot be like Jamaat because Tarique Rahman's father, Zia-ur Rahman, was also involved in the Bangladesh Liberation War. The BNP will not reject the Liberation War like Jamaat does.

Contrary to Sheikh Hasina, the BNP tries to move forward by maintaining a balance between the Liberation War and Islam. However, maintaining this balance while opposing Jamaat will not be easy. If Jamaat moves towards an extremist interpretation of Islam, the BNP will find it difficult to balance.

Nirupama Subramanian says, 'Zia-ur Rahman also considered himself a freedom fighter. A major conflict between Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Zia-ur Rahman was also about who first declared the independence of Bangladesh. The BNP and its supporters believe that Zia-ur Rahman declared it first. Curriculums are also being changed regarding this. There has also been a fight over who is the founder of Bangladesh. But on the other hand, Jamaat-e-Islami was supporting the Pakistani army.'

Tarique Rahman may not be able to deal with Jamaat the way Sheikh Hasina did. Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged very strongly in electoral politics this time.

The alliance led by Jamaat won 77 seats. India was a major issue in the Bangladesh election. The student-led National Citizen Party, which forced Sheikh Hasina to flee power, was openly speaking against India and had an alliance with Jamaat. On the other hand, Tarique Rahman did not appear anti-India at any level throughout the election.

Mahendra P. Lama, Professor at the Centre for South Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) in Delhi, says, 'If Jamaat becomes a problem for India, it will also become a problem for the BNP.'

• Tarique Rahman's Foreign Policy

Professor Lama says, 'To the extent that Jamaat becomes a threat to India, it will also become a threat to the BNP. I say this because there is no third party in Bangladesh now. Both BNP and Jamaat cannot go against each other at the same time. Both Jamaat and BNP together removed Sheikh Hasina. Jamaat and BNP will confront each other, but this will take time.'

Professor Lama adds, 'Wait a while, the Awami League will also support the BNP.'

Tarique Rahman held his first press conference after his victory on February 15. When asked about relations with India at that press conference, he said, 'We have clarified our position regarding foreign policy, which is in the interest of Bangladesh, and the interest of the Bangladeshi people comes first. We will formulate our foreign policy while protecting the interests of Bangladesh and the Bangladeshi people.'

Responding to a question about relations with China, Pakistan, and other regional countries, he stated that his priority would be to protect Bangladesh's interests.

Tarique Rahman had said, 'If something is not in the interest of Bangladesh, naturally we cannot proceed with it. I am fully confident that mutual interest will be our first priority.'

This means Tarique Rahman is avoiding speaking openly about India. The 30 years of the Ganges water treaty are being completed this year, and a new treaty will need to be made to extend it.

The BNP has consistently called this treaty tilted towards India and has opposed it. However, when in power, the BNP never canceled it. Now, the BNP itself will have to handle it anew. The BNP believes that many treaties signed with India during Sheikh Hasina's government were one-sided and need to be reviewed.

India's Delay

Professor Lama says, 'If Bangladesh feels that its relationship with India has been 'dependent' until now, then India must clearly state that we are now ready for an 'interdependent' relationship.'

Nirupama Subramanian says, 'In my opinion, Tarique Rahman will not do anything publicly that sends the message that he is giving something to India or making concessions on any issue. If any agreement is reached, Tarique Rahman cannot present himself in a way that suggests he has given too much to India. If he does so, he will face problems in Bangladesh. The mandate in Bangladesh does not seem to be in favor of supporting India. I think there will be more 'backroom dealing' (behind-the-scenes diplomacy). '

According to Professor Mahendra P. Lama, India should have started what it is doing now immediately after Sheikh Hasina left. Professor Lama says, 'The hand of cooperation is being extended to Tarique Rahman and the BNP at a time when India's image among the people of Bangladesh has become negative. No popular government in any country wants to build relations against the popular mandate of its own country. India is doing absolutely the right thing now, but it is difficult for Tarique Rahman to respond with the same warmth right now.'

It is being said that the BNP's victory may mark the beginning of a new era of more complex bilateral political relations between India and Bangladesh.

Rajiv Biswas, CEO of Asia-Pacific Economics at the US media outlet Bloomberg, says, 'Under BNP leadership, Bangladesh will deepen ties with China and Pakistan. In such a situation, India will have to manage the growing geopolitical competition in the region.'

(Translated essence of a report published by Collective Newsroom for BBC)