Monsoon Risks Rise: Experts Warn of Droughts, Floods, and Landslides in HKH Region

Kathmandu. Meteorologists have warned that this year's monsoon may experience prolonged dry spells, sudden heavy rainfall, and increased risks of flash floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

Forecasters have warned that communities in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region will face monsoon season weather patterns this year, as devastating floods and cloudbursts continue in various parts of Pakistan and India.

A recent cloudburst occurred in Pakistan's Gilgit-Baltistan. Meteorologists have issued warnings following a flood in India's Arunachal Pradesh due to excessive rainfall. Monsoon Forecast 2026 projects that most parts of the HKH region will experience below-normal seasonal rainfall.

Swastha Sanyal, a disaster risk reduction specialist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), said that below-normal rainfall means reduced flood risk.

"Seasonal forecasts show average conditions over a few months, not what happens in a specific valley. Prolonged dry spells interspersed with intense local rainfall under the influence of 'El Niño' can cause devastating flash floods and landslides," she said.

The monsoon is becoming erratic and difficult to predict. Prolonged dry spells are increasing pressure on agriculture and water supply. Sporadic heavy rainfall events continue to pose risks to lives and infrastructure.

Temperatures above normal are expected to further increase risks in glacial-fed river basins of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river systems. Rising temperatures accelerate glacial melt, adding more water to rivers. This destabilizes steep slopes and glacial lakes.

Hydrologist Manish Shrestha noted that the recent flood in Pakistan's 'Thore' valley highlighted the risks in the HKH region. He said, "Excessive rainfall, glacial melt, unstable slopes, and rapidly rising rivers can combine to create a cascade of disasters. Preparedness must also consider these combined risks, not just individual ones."

Climate experts suggest that governments should prepare to tackle risks of drought, extreme heat, flash floods, landslides, and GLOFs in an integrated manner, rather than separately.

Special attention is needed along riverbanks, steep slopes, and rapidly expanding urban areas in Nepal, northern and northeastern India, Pakistan, and other vulnerable hilly regions.

There are still many weeks left in the monsoon. According to meteorologists, the biggest risk is to consider days with less rainfall as an indication of fewer disasters. This year's monsoon has shown the need to prepare for both drought and floods simultaneously.

According to Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Head of Water and Disaster Risk Reduction at ICIMOD, it is necessary to combine scientific forecasts and local knowledge that mountain communities have been using for a long time. "Settlements on steep slopes and riverbanks are among the most vulnerable locations this monsoon," she said.

Forecasters suggest that cross-border early warning systems and information exchange need to be strengthened to manage risks that spread across river systems and national borders.