Madhes Politics at a Crossroads: Analyzing the Shift After Election Setbacks

With the representation of Madhes-centric parties dropping to zero in the 082 House of Representatives elections, Madhes politics is facing numerous questions. The debate over changing leaders and slogans has always been significant in Madhes politics. Changing leaders over time is natural; society determines new leadership while seeking answers to its questions.

However, changing slogans is only effective after reviewing ideologies, achievements, and failures. The current election result, where the representation of Madhesi parties has dropped to zero, has intensified this question. Has Madhes fulfilled its historical demands? Have the old slogans—self-respect, proportional representation, and empowered federalism—lost their relevance? Or is it time to set new slogans?

The current state, achievements, failures, and future direction of Madhes can be analyzed based on some critical questions. There are currently 6 unanswered questions in Madhes politics, which will be discussed in this article.

1. The Demand for Self-Respect: Is it Over After Finding a Balen?

The core essence of the Madhes movement was liberation from the Pahadi Khas arrogance and single-ethnic dominance, and the pursuit of self-respect. However, even after the 072 constitution, no leader with a Madhesi identity became Prime Minister. Some Madhesi leaders became Deputy Prime Ministers or Ministers, but the symbolic demand for a 'Madhesi Prime Minister' remained unfulfilled. Although Madhesi parties were wiped out in the current election, Madhesi lawmakers have been elected through national parties.

However, their role remains party-oriented rather than individual. For the first time in history, a citizen from the Madhesi community has become Prime Minister. Symbolically, this has fulfilled one aspiration of the Madhesi community, but it does not mean self-respect has increased.

Self-respect is not limited to the Prime Minister's chair; it is reflected in daily life, language, culture, and opportunities. Therefore, this demand must be made structural, not just symbolic.

2. Proportional Representation: Has it Been Fulfilled Based on Population?

The constitution provides for proportional representation. However, representation in the Federal Parliament, Provincial Assembly, civil service, army, police, and judiciary is still insufficient according to the Madhesi population ratio. According to the 078 census, the population living in Terai-Madhes is over 50 percent, and Madhesis (excluding Madhesi Dalits and indigenous groups) account for 31 percent, yet their presence in high positions is minimal.

According to Election Commission data, there is a delay in implementing proportional quotas in recent local and provincial elections. This demand has not been met, though reservation has made some progress. The need now is a balance between merit and inclusion, which emphasizes capacity building for Madhesi youth.

3. Empowered Federalism: Is it Guaranteed?

The 072 constitution brought federalism, but provinces were not given sufficient authority. Madhes Province is facing central interference in its budget, law-making, and administrative management. The clause mentioning 'granting autonomy to provinces' in the 22-point and 8-point agreements is still not implemented. Demarcation has not been corrected.

Revenue sharing, police, and administrative powers are centralized. The zero representation of Madhesi parties in the election has weakened the essence of federalism. This demand has not been met. Federalism must now be made practical and economic, not just on paper.

4. Has the State of Statelessness Ended?

The citizenship bill was amended after 072. However, the 080 Citizenship Act could not solve some problems. Issues regarding marital citizenship for Madhesi women, citizens in border areas, and citizenship by birth are still in court. Some Madhesi families are suffering the pain of being stateless. This issue is not just legal, but humanitarian. Zero representation has further weakened this issue.

5. What Happened to the Issues of Historical Movements?

Bedananda Jha raised the rights of the Terai since 007. Gajendra Narayan Singh demanded language, culture, and representation through the Sadbhawana Council. The first and second Madhes movements of 064 established federalism, and the third movement of 072 set the basis for constitutional amendment and inclusion, although the amendment could not happen.

There is a huge gap in the implementation of even the achieved results. Access to language policy, border security, education, and health for the Madhesi community is still insufficient. The movement established the issues but did not provide complete solutions.

6. Were the Agreements Fulfilled?

The 8-point agreement of 064 and the 22-point agreement of 065 mention federalism, proportional representation, citizenship, border security, and economic development. Among these, while federalism and some inclusion were implemented in a distorted manner, more than 80 percent of the rest could not be implemented. The current zero representation has further weakened these agreements.

The answer to these 6 questions is clear—the core demands of Madhes have been partially met but remain far from fully realized. Old slogans could not excite the people. As the election results show, people want changes in their daily lives rather than cliché slogans.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party captured Madhesi votes by putting forward simple and understandable agendas, such as promises of development, employment, and good governance, while maintaining federalism and not having to go to Kathmandu to demand rights. Madhesi parties became distant from the people due to internal strife, allegations of corruption centered on provincial governments, and Kathmandu-centric politics.

What Should be the Slogan of Madhes?

Old slogans like self-respect, federalism, and inclusion made historical contributions, but they can no longer generate sufficient debate. People have seen that there is a lack of roads, irrigation, electricity, education, and health in Madhes Province. Youth are migrating abroad due to unemployment. The performance of the provincial government is not good. Therefore, there should be a new slogan. A slogan like 'Prosperous Madhes, Capable Federalism: Development, Good Governance, and Self-Reliance' could be used.

Leadership of the new generation: Madhes needs a 'Balen' with its own identity, not a technical one. Someone who raises issues of roads, water, electricity, and employment, not just identity. Young, educated, and technically-backed leadership should be encouraged.

Province-centric politics: Even if there is zero representation in the Federal Parliament, the Madhes Provincial Assembly should be strengthened. Plans should be made to present a model by making the provincial government effective.

Direct dialogue with the people: A strategy is needed to adopt the organizational model of the world's largest political party, the BJP, which involves building plans to connect with people through social media, village-level gatherings, and development work, while giving a guardianship role with authority to the senior leadership of all Madhes-centric parties and bringing the new generation forward as executives.

Madhes politics is now at a turning point. No matter how much the old slogans and leadership contributed, people now want results. Zero representation is sad, but it is also an opportunity. If Madhesi society makes 'Prosperous Madhes, Capable Federalism' the new slogan, leadership will emerge automatically. Society determines the leader, but it is the society's responsibility to determine the slogan.

Madhes must now choose the path of building, not asking. Prosperity should start from Janakpur, Birgunj, and Rajbiraj without waiting for Kathmandu. Only this slogan can connect Madhes to the national mainstream and make it truly prosperous. Zero representation has given us an opportunity for review; it is our responsibility to utilize it.

(The author is the coordinator of the Gajendra Narayan Singh Study Center.)