Conflicting Narratives Emerge as US and Iran Offer Divergent Views on Potential War-Ending Talks

US President Donald Trump is emphasizing that fruitful negotiations are underway to end the conflict initiated nearly a month ago with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a claim that Iranian top officials have repeatedly denied. Amidst the clouds of war and propaganda spread by all sides, it is difficult to know whom to believe. However, an analysis of what each side can gain from any negotiation and the potential end of the conflict might bring more clarity.

Trump's assertion of reaching key points of agreement following a 'very good' talk with an unnamed senior Iranian official came as the stock market opened at the start of the business week in the US. The five-day deadline he gave for a positive response from Iran also coincidentally ends with the close of the business week.

Many view this timing with suspicion, especially as this statement comes amid fluctuations in oil prices over the last two weeks, reaching a high point of $120 per barrel last week, alongside developments in the Middle East.

If Washington decides on any form of ground invasion into Iranian territory, Trump's talk of negotiations might also serve to buy time for more US troops to arrive in the Middle East. 

Among those questioning Trump's intentions was an individual many considered the senior Iranian official Trump was signaling—the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Ghalibaf wrote on social media, 'There have been no talks between the US and Iran, and false news has been used to manipulate the economic and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are stuck.'

The impact on the stock market and oil prices is relevant not only for the US and Trump but also for Iran. However, for Tehran, the war offers an advantage in the damage it inflicts on the US and the global economy.

As a means of resisting any potential Israeli or American attack on Iranian soil in the future, Iran wants the US to feel the economic pain of the war.

Therefore, while it is in the US's interest to exaggerate talk of negotiations to calm the markets, it is in Iran's interest to downplay any talk of negotiations and give the Trump administration no room to breathe.

• US Benefit?

Consequently, both sides have their own narratives regarding negotiations, and public comments will give us little insight into whether talks are truly happening or in what form. Rather, it directs us toward what each side can gain from the negotiations and what a real end to the conflict achieves at the current stage.

Trump appears to have underestimated the outcome of the conflict he started with Netanyahu on February 28 and Iran's capacity to endure an attack without the collapse of the Iranian state. He said last week, 'They shouldn't have attacked other countries in the Middle East... Nobody expected that.' He added, 'Even the biggest experts didn't believe that.'

Even if we disregard the fact that US intelligence officials, among others, repeatedly issued those warnings, reality has alerted Trump to the consequences he previously ignored.

However, some allies and supporters might continue to pressure him to escalate the conflict. Trump has previously shown a willingness to compromise to get himself out of difficult situations, and it would not be unnatural for him to see the benefits of doing so in this situation.

In an effort to calm oil prices, the US President has already directed his administration to grant temporary exemptions for some Iranian oil sanctions. This is the first time sanctions on Iranian oil have been eased since 2010, and Iran understands that this concession comes as a result of its policy of expanding the conflict into the wider Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz—a vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes.

This war was already unpopular in the US and has become even more so as consumers see the impact on gasoline prices and potentially other sectors of the economy. All of this is happening on the eve of the Congressional elections later this year, where Trump's Republican Party is expected to perform poorly.

Therefore, Trump has the options of continuing this war and paying the economic and political price, or ending it and facing criticism for failing to complete what he termed a 'short-term mission.'

• Iranian Perspective

But whatever Trump wishes to do, the decision is not entirely in his hands. Iran, having been attacked for the second time in less than a year, sees no reason to end the war without establishing an effective resistance against any future attack.

The days of announcing attacks on US assets and gradually escalating tensions are over. It has been clear since the beginning of the current conflict that Iran has changed its strategy and is not very willing to exercise restraint.

It can be argued that if the Iranian state wants to ensure its survival, it is in its interest to prolong the conflict and inflict more pain on the region.

There might also be a belief that Israel's stock of interceptors (missile defense systems) is running low, making it easier for Iran to strike targeted locations more effectively. Especially, the thinking among the hardliners currently dominant in Iran is that this is not the time to stop and allow those interceptor stocks to be replenished.

Nevertheless, Iran is suffering. According to government figures, more than 1,500 people have died nationwide. Infrastructure has sustained heavy damage, and the power grid could be the next target. Relations with Gulf neighbors have deteriorated, and after Iran's repeated attacks, it is unlikely that relations will return to their previous level even after the conflict ends.

Moderate voices in Iran will look at this situation and think that things could get worse. They might argue that some level of resistance has been achieved, and now is an appropriate time for dialogue. And if they can secure some concessions, such as a promise of no future attacks or more authority over the Strait of Hormuz, they might decide that this is the right time to make a deal.

Al Jazeera