Electoral Review: Major Parties Stunned by Results in Gandaki Province, Underestimating New Forces

Pokhara. The Nepali Congress was defeated in Nawalpur-1, a constituency where it had never lost a parliamentary election. In this area, where Congress leader Dr. Shashank Koirala had won the last four elections, Rajan Gautam of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured a resounding victory this time.

Rajan secured 50,945 votes, while Congress's Balkrishna Ghimire was limited to just 16,293 votes. In the previous election, Congress's Koirala was elected from this constituency with 27,000 votes.

Internal meetings of the Congress had reported that this time there would be a triangular contest, with Congress ultimately winning. “Congress had given the ticket to a new face. UML also had strong candidates. With the RSP being a competitor nearly equal to the two old parties, the assessment was that Congress would win the election,” said a Congress leader from the district. “We were under the illusion that Congress would retain all its votes. We could not even imagine that the impact of the RSP would be so significant.”

CPN-UML leader Prithvi Subba Gurung, who won the party's vice-chairmanship by securing the highest votes in the UML General Convention, had been overwhelming other candidates in Lamjung in previous elections. In the 2079 election, he won with popular votes after defeating the ruling alliance, and this time, even though he was not nominated by the center, he was promoted as the ‘future Prime Minister’ at the district level.

The development model implemented by Gurung when he was the founding Chief Minister of Gandaki was also made an issue in this election campaign. However, he was badly defeated this time. Gurung received 16,876 votes, while RSP's Dharma KC was elected with 33,898 votes.

“This result is beyond imagination. We had reported to the party that the competition would be with Congress,” district-level leaders said. “We never thought our competition would be with the RSP. We estimated the RSP would come third. They surprised us by securing the highest votes.”

The Rastriya Swatantra Party claimed it would win 8 seats in Gandaki but ended up winning 15 seats. In one more seat, an independent candidate, Mahabir Pun, was victorious with the support of the RSP.

CPN leader Lekhnath Neupane, known for his intellectual image and having never received an opportunity, was widely discussed on social media. When he contested from Gorkha-2, many assessed that the people of Gorkha would get justice and he would win the election. Although the competition was with the RSP, the party ranks were focused on reporting that the CPN would win.

Looking at social media, Neupane seemed to be in a winning position, but Lekhnath failed to grasp how dissatisfied citizens were with his own party's chairman, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, after he went into power following the previous election. He used to cite the precedent that the CPN Maoist had not won the subsequent election in the constituency where Prachanda had won. He used to say, “The sad thing is that the subsequent candidate has not won the election in the place where Prachanda won.”

The same model applied in Siraha, Chitwan, Kathmandu, and then in Gorkha-2. The party's internal reporting that the competition would be with the RSP also proved false.

Here, Nepali Congress's Prakash Chandra Dawadi came second. While RSP's Kabindra Burlakoti won the election with 26,660 votes, Prakash received 11,700 and Neupane received 11,073 votes. Not just the old parties, but the reporting for the new party also turned out to be incorrect this time.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party claimed it would win 8 seats in Gandaki but ended up winning 15 seats. In one more seat, an independent candidate, Mahabir Pun, was victorious with the support of the RSP.

The Nepali Congress was confined to the districts beyond the Himalayas. Other parties could not even raise their heads. UML, which claimed to win at least 6 seats, and CPN, which claimed 3 seats, were eliminated with zero. Congress, which estimated around 10 seats, settled for 2 seats. The conclusion of the parties is that the grassroots-level reporting for this election was fundamentally flawed.

“The people were secretly consulting on changing their votes; we, the old party (Congress), remained unaware there. Our reporting could not see that atmosphere,” said Bishnu Prasad Lamichhane, General Secretary of Congress Gandaki. “The mandate and manifesto of our special General Convention were delayed in reaching the public. New and other parties used slogans that attracted the public, but we did not have the liberty to speak outside of official statements.”

He argued that this defeat was also incurred because they failed to present the details of the work done by their party while it was in government to the public. “We did not discuss the changes and good work done under Congress leadership in the country at all. Instead of taking those things to the public, we were busy abusing a few individuals, which ultimately set us back,” he said.

The CPN Maoist considers Gandaki its base area. The then Maoist had won a significant number of local elections in Gorkha and Baglung in Gandaki. Based on that, the CPN had projected to win two constituencies in Gorkha and Baglung-2 this time as well. However, the CPN came third in all three constituencies. The RSP won all three seats, with Congress coming in second.

UML's latest review is the same. “The grassroots workers could not estimate the atmosphere and movement seen across the country. They only reported on their own villages and areas but failed to assess the impact of the external wave,” said Dhananjay Dawadi, Secretary of UML Gandaki. “What this showed is that our party failed to reach the new generation. It was found that the party leadership was completely disconnected from new voters and the new generation. This was the main problem.”

Dawadi admitted that UML is losing its closeness with the current generation. “Especially the new generation after 2060 BS had no attachment to the party whatsoever. Our failure to understand this led to the distortion of electoral reporting and results,” he said.

The CPN Maoist considers Gandaki its base area. The then Maoist had won a significant number of local elections in Gorkha and Baglung in Gandaki. Based on that, the CPN had projected to win two constituencies in Gorkha and Baglung-2 this time as well. However, the CPN came third in all three constituencies. The RSP won all three seats, with Congress coming in second.

“We reported that we would win the election based on our organizational base, party membership, and worker presence, but the situation turned out differently,” said Gunakar Bashyal, Vice-Chairman of CPN Gandaki. “The main thing is that our reporting failed to grasp the fact that the people have changed. We must accept this in politics.”

He explained that party membership and the worker base were his basis for winning the election. It is clearly evident that the results were embarrassing for the old parties because they projected victory based only on analyzing past results and failed to properly analyze and accept the presence of the new forces.