Expert Analysis: US-Israel Attack on Iran Lacks Legal or Moral Basis, Says Political Scientist John Mearsheimer

Undeclared wars have become commonplace now. The unfortunate reality is that the US under Donald Trump has entered into what is termed a 'pre-emptive war,' or in other words, an 'aggressive war,' without the permission of its own people or Congress.

Such practices are leading ordinary people worldwide to normalize or become accustomed to the illegitimate use of power by governments. Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the US kidnapping of current Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, or the sudden US-Israel war on Iran amidst numerous rounds of peace talks. This fundamentally shakes the independent character of society, contemplation of peace, and the concept of power usage.

To understand the contradiction between the state's use of power and the common people's desire for peace, we must follow John Joseph Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago. He has published over half a dozen books, including 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,' 'The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy,' and 'Why States Still Fight and What We Can Do About It' (translated title of 'How States Think: The Rationality of Foreign Policy'). Professor Mearsheimer was interviewed by former US judge Andrew P. Napolitano regarding the US-Iran war.

Here is the edited excerpt of their conversation:

What is your broader takeaway regarding the attack on Iran by the US and Israel since Saturday morning?

When I think about this war, I immediately go to the broader framework. Once a war starts, the question you must ask yourself is: What is our objective? What must we do to achieve those objectives? In other words, what does 'victory' mean for us—for the US and Israel? And what does 'victory' mean for the Iranians? What is their ultimate goal, and what is their probability of achieving it? In my understanding, we only have unattainable goals. We have no path to winning this war in any meaningful sense. If the Iranians merely survive, they will be considered victorious. And I think they will ultimately survive. But that is not enough for the US, so we are in deep trouble.

Has the Trump administration clarified any militarily achievable objectives?

The Trump administration has not coherently stated what America's goal is. President Trump's stance is unstable. He cites different reasons for the war at different times. But frankly, your question is largely irrelevant because it assumes that we are driving this process. The fact is, Israel is in the 'driver's seat' in this war. That is clear.

Tucker Carlson met President Trump just two days ago, and the President told him he had no choice but to go to war. What Trump told Tucker was that Israel is pushing this entire process forward, and Trump is following Israel's orders. Therefore, asking what our goals are is irrelevant. What you should really be asking is what Israel's goals are. And Israel's goals are very clear.

Tucker Carlson recently mentioned that Netanyahu told the US President, 'Whether you support me or not, I am going to attack Iran.' Furthermore, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told congressional leaders that Israel had already decided to attack. In such a situation, the US had only two options: support Israel and try to control the war, or say 'no' to Israel. But saying 'no' was never possible. No US president in the last 63 years has dared to say 'no' to Israel. John F. Kennedy said 'no' regarding Israel's nuclear program in 1962, but he was assassinated, and Lyndon B. Johnson, who became president afterward, gave Israel permission. The last statement is probably correct, isn't it?

Yes, that is correct. But I also want to say that Israel tried twice in 2024 to drag Joe Biden into a war against Iran. Once by attacking the Iranian embassy in Damascus in April, and again by assassinating a Palestinian leader in Tehran in October. Both times, there was an exchange of missiles between Israel and Iran. Israel wanted to pull the Biden administration into the war, but the Biden administration did not fall into that trap. The US helped defend Israel but did not directly attack Iran. But now there is the Trump administration, which is already involved in a direct attack on Iran.

Does this war have any moral or legal basis?

No. It has neither a moral basis nor a legal one. Under domestic law or international law—by any measure, this is not right. Attacking a country to bring about 'regime change' just because someone dislikes the leader of that country is not justified by any law. But President Trump does not care about international law or US law. He does whatever he thinks is appropriate and disregards the law.

What do you say about militarily achievable goals? Our intelligence agencies say Iran has been building nuclear weapons since 2003. The Secretary of Defense says it is not for regime change. The President says, 'Iranian people, take to the streets, and we will bring about regime change.' The Secretary of State says Iran is building weapons that could harm us in the future.' Aren't all these contradictory?

There is no threat to the United States from Iran. Israel's main goal is regime change in Iran. People talk about destroying Iran's missile or nuclear capability, but those things cannot be stopped without regime change. If you destroy the missile centers now, they will build them again. Israel thinks that if the regime changes and a friendly government is established in Iran, the problem will be solved. But is regime change possible? And will the new ruler be a friend of the US? I see no such possibility. Whoever comes to power in Iran will still have a hostile attitude towards the US and Israel.

Did Israel force Trump to engage in war of this magnitude?

It is not just Israel; it is the result of pressure from the 'Israel Lobby.' Trump's main negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Bannon, are staunch Zionists. They are like advocates for Israel. This suggests that the US is operating under Israel's orders. If this powerful lobby did not exist, we would treat Israel as a normal country. But we have given it a special and extraordinary status.

Can you estimate the cost of such a large-scale military operation?

I cannot say exactly. But whatever the cost, it will be very high. Trump says this war will only last four or five weeks, but I think it will last much longer. The main issue is not just the cost, but our weapons stockpile. We have already spent many weapons in the Ukraine war. Now, if we consume weapons in Iran, what will we have left for a potential war against China? The Chinese must be happy that America is depleting its military strength by getting entangled in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

China is a major consumer of oil produced by Iran. Can China tolerate regime change in Iran?

The Chinese will try everything possible to save the Iranian regime. One reason Israel is attacking now is that if Iran is not stopped now, it is certain to become stronger in the future. That is why Israel wants to attack now using the US. But Iran will not back down. Even if the regime changes, the new rulers might be even more radical. In fact, by assassinating the Iranian leader, we have removed the main person preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons. Now the possibility of Iran building nuclear weapons has increased even more.

Trump says America has unlimited weapons. Is he being misinformed?

Yes, General Milley warned him about the shortage of weapons. What Trump is saying is far from reality. The Iranians will continue to attack Israeli and American bases and try to shut down the world's oil routes. Trump dreams of bringing the Shah's son to power in Iran, who has been living in the US for 45 years. Trump has no idea that the Iranian people will never accept him. He is merely a puppet of the US.

What is your view on Turkey's role in this context? Why do Israeli leaders consider Turkey a greater threat than Iran?

Turkey wants to see Iran survive. Because if Iran is finished, Turkey knows that Israel's next target will be Turkey. Israel wants to be the sole powerful country in the Middle East. That is why Turkey is also starting to talk about nuclear weapons for its own security.

How will this war end? Do you have any thoughts?

This is turning into a regional war. Sending ground troops into this war would be suicidal for the US. If Iran feels its existence is in danger, it will destroy the world's oil infrastructure, which will ruin the global economy. Trump has put America in a problem from which there is no easy way out.