Madhesi Parties Face Uncertain Future Amid Shifting Political Landscape in Nepal

Kathmandu. Madhesi parties are not prominently featured in this election cycle. Seeing this, many are starting to say, 'It seems the Madhes-centric parties might be completely wiped out this time.'

Amid the rising wave of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Madhesi parties appear to be fading into the background even in the Madhes region. It is natural to discuss the seats these Madhesi parties might win at this time. Is their position truly weak? Chandra Kishore, an expert on Madhes affairs, says, 'The situation is indeed bad. If any leader wins based on their personal capability, that's a different matter; otherwise, everyone else looks to be in a bad state.' He noted that no party is in a position to win based on organizational strength, and even the party chairpersons are not in a comfortable position. His understanding is that while Madhesi parties may not be 'wiped out,' there is certainly no 'wave' for them.

'This is the autumn season for Madhesi parties; spring will not come,' he stated. 'This situation has arisen because the performance of Madhesi parties in the federal, provincial, and local governments has not been good.' He believes that despite the youth-led movements, there has been no structural change in Madhesi parties, nor has there been any noticeable difference in ticket distribution.

What is the status of each leader?

Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (JSPN), Janamat Party, Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, Nagarik Unmukti Party Nepal, and other parties formed in the Terai-Madhes are currently engaged in the election. Upendra Yadav, Chairman of JSPN, is contesting from Saptari-3. Mahantha Thakur, patron of JSPN, has already been elected to the National Assembly.

Rajendra Mahato, Chairman of Rastriya Mukti Party, is a candidate from Sarlahi-2, and Dr. CK Raut, Chairman of Janamat Party, is a candidate from Saptari-2. However, their situation is not like before; it appears everyone will have to work hard to secure results in their favor. Although an alliance was formed among the Madhes-centric parties, it remained inactive in this election; meaning, the leaders failed to forge sufficient coordination.

Madhesi parties are contesting this election individually. However, Rastriya Mukti Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party Nepal, and JSP (Ashok Rai faction) are contesting under a single election symbol. Apart from this, no agreement exists between any other parties. The alliance formed by Rizwan Ansari-led Nepal Federal Socialist Party with five other small parties has shown little impact.

Leaders of Anil Jha-led Nepal Sadbhavana Party are contesting from various parties. The party's chairman, Anil Kumar Jha, is a candidate for the Nepali Congress and will face tough competition from CPN-UML's co-coordinator Madhav Kumar Nepal.

The situation for JSPN leader Sharat Singh Bhandari is also not like previous elections; Kiran Yadav of the Congress appears to pose a significant challenge to him. Mahantha Thakur, patron of JSPN, has fielded his daughter, Dr. Meenakshi Yadav, in Mahottari-3, where a tough contest is anticipated against JSPN's rebel candidate, Hari Narayan Yadav.

Rajkishor Yadav, who won from Siraha-2 on a JSPN ticket in the 2079 election, is contesting from Siraha-4 this time. He is being challenged by Tapeshwor Yadav of RSP. Due to this being the constituency of RSP's proportional representation candidate Purushottam Yadav, RSP's influence seems quite high in that area.

Dr. Birendra Mahato, who won on a JSPN ticket in the past, is a candidate for Janamat Party this time. Ajay Shankar Nayak is the candidate from the CPN formed by the merger of various parties. It is being analyzed that it will not be easy for Rajkishor this time either, as a tough competition is expected among these parties.

Hridyesh Tripathi, who lost to Congress's Binod Chaudhary in the last election, is contesting from Nawalparasi-1 on a Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal ticket this time. He is competing against the same Chaudhary this time.

JSPN's Sarbendra Nath Shukla is a candidate in Rupandehi-4, where he won last time. However, it looks difficult for him this time as well. Ashutosh Mishra from Nepali Congress, Bhupendra Yadav from Janamat Party, and Kanhaiya Baniya from Rastriya Swatantra Party have filed nominations. Shukla, who won the provincial assembly seat from Lospa last election, resigned and became an RSP candidate, which seems to affect JSPN's Shukla.

Dr. Rajiv Jha, Vice-Chairman of Rastriya Mukti Party, was a candidate in Dhanusha-3. However, he resigned from the party, joined RSP, and has already supported Manish Jha. After their own candidate supported RSP, RMP supported Congress in Dhanusha-3.

Similarly, Gajendra Mandal, RMP candidate for Saptari-3, has supported Congress candidate Dinesh Yadav, who had won from there previously as well. JSPN Chairman Upendra Yadav is also a candidate in this constituency. Although JSPN and RMP are in the same front, Gajendra Mandal supporting Congress's Dinesh Yadav instead of Upendra Yadav confirms the distance among Madhesi parties.

Party Strength in Madhes

Madhes Province, with 3,636,414 voters, elects about 55 members of parliament through direct and proportional representation. Electoral results so far show that the party winning the most candidates from there primarily becomes the largest party in the country. Therefore, electoral strategy, leadership presence, etc., for Madhes Province are centered around the Madhes region.

There are 32 constituencies across eight districts of Madhes Province. In the last election, JSPN received 298,744 votes, while Janamat Party received 296,484 votes. In 2079, Congress was the largest party, securing 434,971 votes, while UML received 371,971 votes. CPN (then Maoist) received 179,780, Rastriya Swatantra Party received 72,935, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party received 68,653 votes.

The then Loktantrik Samajbadi Party Nepal led by Mahantha Thakur, CPN (S) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal, the then Nagarik Unmukti Party led by Ranjita Shrestha, Nepal Federal Socialist Party led by Md. Rizwan Ansari, and Bahujan Ekta Party did not cross the threshold.

The then Lospa Nepal, which merged with JSPN, received 109,390 votes; CPN (S) received 107,084; the then Nagarik Unmukti Party, which merged with CPN-UML, received 41,001; Nepal Federal Socialist Party received 38,312; and Bahujan Ekta Party received 156,774 votes.

No Change in Thinking

Social researcher Sohan Sah states that the condition of Madhesi parties will not even be as good as the previous election. 'Currently, Madhesi youth are not even ready to hear the name of Madhesi parties; there is little enthusiasm for Madhesi parties.' In his view, the single reason for this is that Madhesi parties have not refined themselves. He argues that there is little attraction towards Madhesi parties because they have gone into the election with the same old style and thinking.

Researcher Sah, who toured various districts of Madhes and returned to Janakpur, says, 'They won't be completely wiped out; some might win based on organizational votes. Votes can still come even if they don't win the election.' He cited the example of Mayawati's party in India, which, despite not winning the election, secured good votes, and mentioned that the Indian Congress also got good votes. 'It will be the same for Madhesi parties; even if they don't win the election, they will get respectable votes everywhere,' he said.