US-Russia New START Nuclear Treaty Expires, Raising Fears of Unchecked Arms Race

Kathmandu. The last remaining New START nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire on Thursday. This creates a situation where the two major nuclear powers will have no limits on their arsenals for the first time in half a century.

Experts have warned that the expiration of the treaty could increase the risk of a new, uncontrolled arms race. Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated readiness to extend the treaty for one year, but US President Donald Trump has shown hesitation regarding an extension.

Trump has repeatedly signaled his desire to cap nuclear weapons and include China in negotiations. Beijing has made it clear that it will not accept any restrictions on its growing nuclear arsenal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the treaty's expiration will make the world more 'dangerous'.

Arms control advocates have warned this will increase the risk of a Russia-US new arms race, global instability, and nuclear conflict. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, capped each side at 700 deployed missiles and bombers and 1,550 nuclear warheads. The treaty included extensive inspection and compliance mechanisms, but the COVID-19 pandemic halted inspection processes. Russia also halted US inspections following its invasion of Ukraine.

According to experts, after the treaty expires, the two sides may increase the number of deployed weapons for the first time in nearly 35 years. This could open the door to a potential trilateral nuclear race involving China.

Kingston Reif, a former US defense official at the RAND Corporation, stated that in the absence of predictability, each side might be encouraged to plan for the worst and increase its deployed arsenal.

Putin repeatedly warned that Russia is 'ready to use all means' after sending troops into Ukraine in February 2022, frequently showcasing Russia's nuclear capability. In 2024, he signed a revised doctrine reducing the threshold for nuclear use.

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, initiated the process of reducing the arsenals of the two sides. Previously, treaties like SALT I, the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and the Intermediate-Range Treaty, starting in 1972, had attempted to limit weapons.

Experts have warned that the treaty's expiration could lead to an uncontrolled increase in US and Russian nuclear capabilities and global instability, which would encourage China and other nations to increase their arsenals. The Trump administration is exploring options to secure its strategic advantage through plans like the Golden Dome missile defense system.

The world is currently in a period of intense strategic competition. The nuclear capabilities of the US, Russia, and China are active. Experts warn that such a situation has never been seen in our lifetime, making the global nuclear competition much more dangerous.