Rastriya Swatantra Party Bets on Balen Shah to Boost Influence in Madhesh Ahead of Elections

Kathmandu. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which failed to make a significant impact in the Terai-Madhesh region during the 079 parliamentary elections, is now strategizing to increase its influence in Madhesh by promoting Balendra (Balen) Shah as a future Prime Minister candidate for the upcoming House of Representatives election. This move has somewhat generated a favorable atmosphere for the RSP in Madhesh.

As the Madhesi community appears enthusiastic about making Balen, a son of the Terai-Madhesh region, the Prime Minister, the established parties including Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and the Communist Party face a growing challenge in retaining the Madhesi vote base.

In Siraha, which has four constituencies, the RSP is expected to have an advantage in three constituencies due to the personal influence of its candidates. However, locals suggest that the situation in Constituency No. 3 is somewhat unfavorable because the RSP has fielded a comparatively weaker candidate.

The RSP candidates in Siraha are former Minister Bablu Gupta in Constituency No. 1, Shiva Yadav in Constituency No. 2, and Tapeshwar Yadav in Constituency No. 4. Bablu Gupta and Shiva Yadav are locally known names. Although Tapeshwar, the candidate in Siraha-4, has less personal influence, Purushottam Yadav, an engineer on the RSP's proportional representation closed list and a resident of the same area, is expected to benefit Tapeshwar.

In Siraha-3, the RSP has nominated Shambhu Kumar Yadav. Since Shambhu has little local influence, this constituency has provided some relief to the older parties. Nevertheless, RSP's proportional representation candidate Purushottam Yadav claims that the RSP's position is strong across all four constituencies in the district.

He asserted that there is a wave of leaders joining the RSP from various parties, and the momentum in favor of the RSP is growing daily. He stated that the situation in Siraha-3 is becoming favorable as leaders from JSP Nepal, Congress, and Janmat Party are actively joining the RSP.

Badri Yadav, a journalist based in Siraha, also noted that the discussion surrounding the RSP and Balen has brought about a wave of change not only in Siraha but in almost all districts of Madhesh. He said, 'The RSP has fielded a weaker candidate in Siraha-3 compared to other areas, but the wave and discussion are the same everywhere. It depends on how much the RSP candidate in Siraha-3, Shambhu Kumar Yadav, can capitalize on that wave and discussion.'

RSP candidate Shambhu Yadav studied medical science in China. He is currently practicing medicine. His father was a 'Pradhanpanch' during the Panchayat era, and later they became close to the Congress party.

Although there was talk that Pappu Marwaita Yadav, who defected from JSP Nepal to the RSP in Siraha-3, would be nominated, Shambhu Yadav was eventually given the ticket.

In this constituency, Subhash Chandra Yadav is the candidate from the Nepali Congress. He is the son of Congress leader Sita Yadav. Ashweshwar Yadav is contesting from JSP Nepal. In the 2079 election, JSP Nepal supported the CPN-UML in this constituency. Ashweshwar Yadav had contested in the 2074 election and finished in second place.

In terms of organization, the Communist parties have a majority in Siraha-3, with CPN-UML appearing the strongest. Lila Nath Shrestha of CPN-UML was elected from this constituency in both the 2074 and 2079 elections. In 2074, the then CPN (Maoist Centre) supported the CPN-UML, while in 2079, JSP Nepal provided support. CPN-UML has won 15 out of a total of 41 wards across the two municipalities—Siraha Municipality and Golbazar Municipality—that fall under Siraha Constituency No. 3, along with other local units. By this metric, CPN-UML appears the strongest.

The CPN (Maoist Centre) is in second place. In the last election, the CPN (then Maoist Centre) was second. CPN-UML's Lila Nath Shrestha secured 28,064 votes, while CPN's Bishwanath Sah received 26,882 votes. Although the CPN did not win any municipalities under Siraha-3, it won nine wards. This time, Lila Nath Shrestha is the candidate from CPN-UML and Bishwanath Sah from CPN in that constituency.

Based on past local and parliamentary elections, the organizational strength of the Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal appears similar in this constituency. JSP Nepal and Congress have each won eight wards under Siraha-3.

In the last local election, JSP Nepal won Arnama Rural Municipality. However, only three wards of that municipality fall under this constituency.

Ram Prakash Mahato, who is involved in the education sector, says, 'It is difficult to assess the results right now, but there is a public wave for the RSP, while CPN-UML, CPN, Congress, and JSP Nepal have organizational strength.'

Professor Aniruddha Thakur from Siraha suggests that while the competition appears to be between CPN-UML and CPN based on organization, the Congress candidate Subhash Chandra cannot be considered weak.

Although CPN-UML won the election in Siraha Municipality, the influence of the Congress party is significant there. Congress leader Sita Devi Yadav was elected multiple times from here. Her husband, Chandranarayan Yadav, also held considerable influence. However, many locals believe that Congress candidate Subhash Chandra Yadav faces internal threats from his own party this time. He is part of Congress President Gagan Thapa's team. Locals say that the level of support he receives from leaders aligned with former President Sher Bahadur Deuba will impact the Congress vote share.

However, Congress leader Sanjay Yadav says, 'There is no factionalism in Congress now; everyone is united and working for Subhash Yadav's election.' He claimed that the party is experiencing a wave in Madhesh after Congress put forward President Gagan Thapa as a candidate for Prime Minister, asserting that Gagan contesting from Sarlahi has created a good impact for Congress in Madhesh.

JSP Nepal's Siraha Chairman Ashok Yadav claims that his party has a good influence. He argued that CPN-UML won the 2074 election with the support of the Maoists and the 2079 election with the support of JSP Nepal, claiming that CPN-UML has little organizational base in this constituency. He said, 'In the 2074 election, JSP Nepal secured the second-highest votes here. In the 2079 election, we supported CPN-UML. This time, we will win the election.'

In Siraha-3, Rohat Mahato from Janmat Party, Dev Dayal Singh from RPP, Gyanu Devi Danuwar from Aam Janata Party, Pujan Kumar Singh from Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party, Deep Kumar Lama from Shram Sanskriti Party, Kamal Ray from CPN (Maoist Centre), and Shrawan Paswan from Ujyalo Nepal Party are contesting.

Additionally, Dushyant Kumar Karna, Pradip Kumar Shrestha, Satish Chandra Singh Sumit Shrestha, Ramcharitra Prasad Sah, Dipendra Kumar Yadav, Anand Bishwakarma, Umesh Kumar Baral, Bijay Kumar Ram, Baijnath Kami, Ram Pukar Kamati, Arvind Kumar Yadav, Dilip Kumar Pasman, Manchan Mahato, Jivachh Kumar Yadav, Dinesh Yadav, Arjun Kumar Yadav, Rakesh Kumar Yadav, Ashish Kumar Mandal, Ankit Kumar Yadav Se. Jahur, Sobhit Kumar Yadav, Rameshchandra Sharma, Indila Kumari Yadav, Rajeshwar Yadav, Surya Dev Yadav, Krishna Kumar Yadav, Bablu Kumar Yadav, and Navin Kumar Yadav have filed independent candidacies.