Uncertainty Lingers Over Nepal's Upcoming House of Representatives Election Despite Official Preparations

Kathmandu. If the election is to be held on Falgun 21, exactly one month remains from today, yet many still wonder - will the election actually happen? Or perhaps some are thinking - will the election really be held on Falgun 21?

While questions and doubts persist, the Election Commission, political parties, and the government continue their work, moving the electoral process forward. Voters also appear ready to cast their ballots.

All political parties, new and old, have updated themselves according to the Commission's schedule to participate in the electoral process, and have already started from candidate registration to election campaigning. However, no one can yet give a concrete answer to the doubt of whether the election will happen or not. Arguments and analyses are being made according to their own convenience.

Some political parties and their leaders are expressing apprehension about whether the election will be held independently, fairly, and without fear, citing the government's style of functioning and the inability to boost the morale of security personnel. Many are also raising questions about the election by pointing to the writ petition filed in the Supreme Court against the dissolution of the House of Representatives. Despite all this, the country is immersed in election fervor.

It is not that government officials, the Election Commission, or party leaders do not have suspicions that some challenges remain for the election. While some express those suspicions, others cannot voice them due to their limitations and compulsions.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sushila Karki, who had announced that the election would be completed in a single phase on Falgun 21, stated on Tuesday that if the weather becomes a hindrance, there might be a situation where elections in some mountainous districts would have to be held in a second phase.

It should be recalled that previously, during discussions with top leaders of major parties at the President's Office and the Prime Minister's Office, when proposals were made to slightly adjust the election date and candidate nomination date because the weather would not permit elections in the mountainous districts on Falgun 21 and because of the Holi festival in the Terai districts, Prime Minister Karki had insisted that the date would not be changed under any circumstances.

Former Prime Minister and CPN Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' himself publicly revealed in a recent interview that the Prime Minister and the Election Commission did not heed the parties' request when they made such appeals.

It was at this time that Prime Minister Karki herself, after participating in a student training completion ceremony organized by the National Cadet Corps (NCC) at Hattikhor in East Nawalparasi on Tuesday, hinted that the election date might be postponed by a few days if extreme cold hits the mountainous districts, stating that elections in those areas could be held in a second phase. "If the extreme cold makes it completely impossible, it will be in the second phase," was Prime Minister Karki's statement. Furthermore, Prime Minister Karki claimed that no one had discussed postponing the election with her.

"The Falgun 21 election will not be postponed. It will happen on the scheduled date," Karki emphasized.

Although the Prime Minister expressed the possibility of holding the election in a second phase in the mountainous districts if the weather does not cooperate, Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari insists that the date of Falgun 21 will not shift one way or the other.

"The Commission has no intention of postponing the date, nor is there any possibility of it being postponed under any circumstances," says Acting Chief Commissioner Bhandari. "The election will be completed on the scheduled date. The Commission is not even aware of what someone else said." However, when asked by Ratopati what they would do if, practically, snow in the mountainous districts prevents voters from casting their ballots and the government makes a decision, Bhandari replied, "We will think about that when the time comes."

While the Prime Minister and Acting Chief Election Commissioner Bhandari are saying this, some challenges for a fair, independent, and fearless election still remain. Issues such as weapons looted during the Janatavictory movement, escaped prisoners from that period, the weather conditions in the mountainous districts, and the Holi festival, considered the biggest and most important in the Madhes, have been analyzed as challenges. However, the sentiment that these issues should not be used as excuses to postpone or delay the election has overshadowed this analysis.

At an interaction organized by the Law Society on Tuesday regarding the Falgun 21 election and its challenges, stakeholders also stated that despite the doubts, there should be no turning back from the Falgun 21 election now. Former election commissioners, former security personnel, legal experts, and former administrators emphasized that the election is the way forward and the date should not be changed.

At the program, former Chief Secretary Shankar Das Bairagi stated that there seems to be a psychology among political parties that the election must be held on the scheduled date.

"I heard a video conversation of a major political party leader just this morning," Bairagi said. "In it, I saw him asking, 'We won't run away from the election, but isn't the situation not yet ready for us to participate in the election with confidence?'" He mentioned that while he sensed some deficiencies felt by party leaders, it would be significant to see whether the government has provided an equal playing field. He also stated that much would depend on the Commission's role in balancing the implementation of the election code of conduct and the algorithm of social media.

"Another thing is the access to 'money and muscle power'. And we need to see whether the election can be conducted independently from the nexus of criminals and protests," Bairagi added.

Another former Chief Secretary, Eknarayan Aryal, stated that as the Falgun 21 election date approaches, security challenges are increasing. "This election should not be taken too lightly," Aryal said. "There is no high morale in the security agencies." He asserted the need for state organs to boost the morale of security personnel, who are not motivated and do not receive credit even when they work.

"First, this issue must be removed," he said. "There is also the issue of disinformation." Furthermore, he stated that although candidates from all 165 constituencies have filed their nominations, none of them went into the election carrying a definite agenda or a mandate according to the spirit of the Janatavictory movement. In that context, he mentioned that security threats are increasing due to geo-politics and the government needs to pay attention to this, adding that considering the weather in the mountainous districts, the date for those districts might shift.

However, he said that debating whether the election will happen or not is a useless topic, as 10 crore rupees are already being spent daily for the election, so there is no point in debating whether it won't happen.

Former DIG of Nepal Police and UML leader Navaraj Silwal suggested that the government should proceed with the plan to hold elections in the mountainous regions in a second phase. "The election is going to happen; perhaps a situation may arise where the government should proceed with the understanding that elections in the mountainous regions will be held in a second phase," Silwal said. "Other types of security challenges will not stop the election other than that."

Silwal mentioned the violence that occurred in Bangladesh in August 2024 and the interim government formed afterward failing to hold elections even after two years, saying, "We have moved far ahead for the election. Given the preparation of the political parties, the Election Commission, security agencies, and the government, we can conclude that the country is heading towards an election."