Salyan Parliamentary Election Heats Up as Major Parties Face Off

Surkhet. The electoral battle for the House of Representatives election scheduled for Falgun 21 is set to be interesting in Salyan.

A tough competition is anticipated among the major parties: CPN (Maoist Centre), Nepali Congress, and CPN-UML. They also fear that candidates from other new and smaller parties might split their votes.

The candidates are Ramesh Kumar Malla from CPN (Maoist Centre), Gulabjung Shah from UML, and Keshab Bahadur Bista from Congress. Additionally, 16 others have registered their candidacies, including Lalit Kumar Chand from Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Chandrabahadur Khadka from Biplav-led CPN (Maoist), and Anisha Nepali from RPP. However, the electoral contest is expected to be primarily among the three major parties.

Malla, the candidate from CPN (Maoist Centre), was a long-time personal secretary to Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'. Malla, a former chairman of the All Nepal Revolutionary Students' Union (ANRSU) of the then CPN (Maoist), is entering the electoral arena for the first time.

Shah, the UML candidate, was defeated in the Provincial Assembly (2) in 2079 BS, but he won from (1) in 2074 BS. He is currently the UML Karnali Province Chairman and is considered an influential leader within UML. Among the 16 candidates in Salyan, he is likely the most senior and experienced leader.

Bista, the Congress candidate, is a former chief of the District Coordination Committee. He was defeated in the election for Chhatreshwori Rural Municipality Chairman in the 2079 BS local elections and currently serves as the Congress District President. He is the only District President from Karnali whose position will be confirmed in the special general convention of Congress among the ten districts. Accordingly, he received the ticket for the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, RSP candidate Chand is an intellectual figure. A civil engineer, he has worked extensively on rural development.

He has a background in Biplav Maoism. Furthermore, RPP candidate Nepali was a proportional representation Member of Parliament in the 2079 elections, while Khadka of CPN (Maoist Centre) is a martyr's family member and a former combatant.

Fear of Maoists for Prachanda's Former Secretary, 'Bell' Threat to Congress

Many had anticipated that Prakash Jwala would secure the ticket from CPN (Maoist Centre) this time. Considered an influential leader in the district, he was the Central General Secretary of the Unified Socialist Party and a confidant of Madhav Kumar Nepal.

Jwala, who previously served as the Finance Minister of the Karnali government, was a candidate for the House of Representatives in 2051 BS and won the 2056 general election from UML. As UML weakened in Salyan after the 2060s, he won the 2070 Second Constituent Assembly election from Salyan-2. Later, during the split of UML, he sided with Madhav Nepal. However, amidst the tug-of-war, Jwala did not get the ticket; instead, Ramesh Malla, a former Maoist, secured the ticket with Prachanda's strong backing.

To secure victory, Malla appears to need the full support of Jwala, and there is also concern that Khadka of Biplav Maoist might significantly cut into the CPN (Maoist Centre)'s votes.

Khadka is known everywhere as a martyr's family member and a veteran of the People's War. Leaders estimate that if the votes of Maoist and 'Bell' (RSP) increase, CPN (Maoist Centre)'s Malla will suffer the most damage in Salyan, followed by Congress and UML.

Khadka currently hails from Darma Rural Municipality, an area where CPN (Maoist Centre) traditionally gets many votes, while RSP's Chand is from Bagchaur. Darma is a local level won by CPN (Maoist Centre) in 2079 BS. CPN (Maoist Centre) has 4,464 votes here, while Congress has 3,000 and UML has about a thousand votes. Since Darma is an area with organizational strength and voter base for Maoists, the candidacy of a former combatant from Maoist will cause significant damage to CPN (Maoist Centre)'s Malla.

Malla's home municipality was won by Congress.

Bagchaur is a place won by Congress, where RSP candidate Chand is contesting. He is well-known among the public. Here, Congress has the highest votes at 6,027, CPN (Maoist Centre) has 5,594, and UML has 3,420 votes. However, if Chand secures many votes from his home turf, it could hurt both Congress and CPN (Maoist Centre), and RPP is also set to cut votes from the three major parties.

UML candidate Gulabjung Shah, an experienced leader who was defeated in the 2070 Constituent Assembly election, might benefit from the division between Congress and CPN (Maoist Centre). However, internal problems are reported to be significant within both UML and Congress. On the other hand, it is also speculated that Malla could win easily if he receives full support from Jwala.

Salyan Election Analysis in Data

UML was strong here in the 2050s. Prakash Jwala won the election contesting for UML in 2051 and 2056 BS. However, after the 2060s, the Maoist (now CPN (Maoist Centre)), emerging from the heat of the insurgency, established dominance.

In the first Constituent Assembly election of 2064 BS, Maoists won both constituencies. Tek Bahadur Basnet won from Constituency 1 and Umakanta Sharma from Constituency 2, both representing Maoists. In the 2070 Second Constituent Assembly election, Basnet of Maoists won again in Constituency 1, while Prakash Jwala won from UML in Constituency 2.

The seat won by UML in Salyan is this single seat in the House of Representatives elections after the 2060s.

After that, Salyan became a single constituency for the House of Representatives. In the 2074 BS election, when there was a left-wing alliance, Tek Bahadur Basnet of Maoists was elected from the House of Representatives with 40,897 votes. Rajendra Bahadur Shah of Congress received 29,767 votes.

In 2079 BS, when the alliance was between Congress, Maoist Centre, and Unified Socialist, UML was severely defeated. Prakash Jwala of Unified Socialist received 35,707 votes from the alliance, while his competitor Rajendra Bahadur Shah (Congress, rebel) got 19,792 votes. UML came third; in that election, UML fielded Rajendra Bir Ray of RPP, who received 13,000 votes. RSP received 3,696 votes in that election.

However, analyzing the votes received at the ward level in the 2079 local elections, Congress has the most votes: Congress 33,616, Maoist Centre 25,713, and UML 26,628 votes. Unified Socialist has 9,408 votes.

UML has the highest number of proportional votes. In the 2079 House of Representatives proportional representation, UML received 22,256 votes, while Maoist Centre received 21,325 votes. Congress received 19,966 votes.

Unified Socialist received 5,970 votes, and RSP received 4,522 votes. RPP received 2,308 votes, while other smaller parties received less than a thousand votes. At that time, combining the votes received by Maoist Centre and Unified Socialist gives the current CPN (Maoist Centre)'s proportional vote count as 28,226.

CPN (Maoist Centre) considers this as the basis for winning the election.