Nawalpur-1: A 'Green Zone' for RSP Faces Tough Challenge from Established Parties

Pokhara. Based on the results of the House of Representatives election held in 2079 and organizational expansion, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has designated Nawalpur-1 as the constituency in Gandaki where it anticipates the easiest victory, labeling it a 'Green Zone'. In the 2079 election, RSP finished third in direct voting in this constituency but came in first under the proportional representation system.

Dr. Shashanka Koirala of the Nepali Congress, who won the election for the third consecutive time, secured 27,067 votes, while Rajan Gautam of RSP came in third with 24,305 votes. Krishna Prasad Paudel of UML finished second with 25,047 votes. Apart from the RPP's 3,400 votes, other parties were limited to three-digit vote counts, meaning none of them managed to cross 1,000 votes.

Under the proportional representation system, RSP garnered 25,774 votes, while the Congress received 23,041 votes. UML secured 22,150 votes. The RPP received 5,100 votes, and the then CPN (Maoist Centre) received 3,600 votes. Meanwhile, for the Provincial Assembly proportional representation, the Congress obtained 29,541 votes. For the Provincial Assembly proportional representation, UML had 28,601 votes and RPP had 10,322 votes. Similarly, the Maoist Centre received 3,964 votes.

The victory of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah using the 'Lauro' (stick) election symbol had an impact on the Provincial and House of Representatives elections. Incidentally, the 'Lauro' symbol was claimed by the Hamro Nepali Party in the last election. In Nawalpur-1, 2,295 votes were cast for the 'Lauro' election symbol.

• What is the Ground Reality?

The battleground in Nawalpur-1 is not as easy as the candidates and cadres might think. RSP appears set to pose a tough challenge to the traditionally powerful Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. Congress still claims that its own candidate will emerge victorious in this area, which it has historically dominated. Congress has nominated Balkrishna Ghimire, who has been active in the district's development and public outreach, as its candidate. A former long-time educator, he is the Vice-Chairman of the Congress in Nawalpur. Ghimire, who possesses strong oratory skills, relies heavily on votes from the hilly region. Although a permanent resident of Bulingtar, Ghimire moved to the city later and maintains strong rapport with urban voters; however, looking at past results, his path is certainly not easy. Congress leaders claim that votes that crossed over in the previous election due to an unsuitable candidate will return this time.

'There are 3,000 votes that crossed over due to dissatisfaction with the Doctor (Shashanka Koirala) in the past. If those votes return smoothly, there is nothing else to wait for,' said a Congress leader. 'Ghimire's hilly geography and teaching background will help him win, but it won't be easy.'

The assessment of those leaders is that bringing leaders like Party President Gagan Thapa and Vice-President Bishwa Prakash Sharma to the district for campaigning could secure decisive votes. Local residents, however, offer a different argument.

'Voters are increasingly inclined to see someone new this time due to dissatisfaction with the old parties. This suggests the election results might be unexpected,' said a local. 'It is not easy for the parties to protect their legacy due to candidate selection and the burden of the past. If this atmosphere persists, strongholds will crumble.'

The frequent change of candidates by the Congress may also affect the election. Gajendra Ale was initially given the ticket from Constituency No. 1. Later, after Balkrishna Ghimire was given the ticket, both registered their candidacies. However, Gajendra's candidacy was canceled based on the party's recommendation, and Balkrishna became the official candidate. RSP's candidate is Rajan Gautam, who contested last time. He was active in Maoist politics before that. RSP claims victory because the party's organization has expanded since the 2079 election and the general public's hope and trust lie with the new party.

UML is also strong in this area. Bhageerath Sapkota is the candidate from UML.

The old parties are burdened by the accusation of failing to deliver when given opportunities, while the new parties are not yet fully trusted. Currently, there is a wave of party switching. Regardless, the election campaign, public outreach, and internal strategies during the election period are set to make the Nawalpur-1 election interesting.