Who will win the Ballon d'Or? Pundits' picks

Lionel Messi has won record eighth Ballon d'Or. (Getty Images)

BBC Sport, October 28 — The 2024 Ballon d'Or takes place on Monday, when players gather in Paris to find out who has been crowned the world's best male and female footballers.

It is the first time since 2003 that neither eight-time winner Lionel Messi nor five-time winner Cristiano Ronaldo feature on the shortlist.

With Karim Benzema and Luka Modric - the only other previous recipients still playing - also omitted, a first-time winner is guaranteed in the men's category.

In the women's category, Spain World Cup winner and Barcelona midfielder Aitana Bonmati is looking to win the award for a second successive year.

The men's award is voted for by a jury of journalists from each of the top 100 countries in the Fifa men's rankings.

The winner of the women's award will be chosen by a jury of women’s journalists representing the top 50 countries in the Fifa women’s rankings.

BBC Sport asks pundits to predict who will come out on top.

Who will win the Men's Ballon d'Or?

Rodri is a strong favourite after helping Manchester City to a record fourth successive Premier League title and Spain win the European Championship.

His City team-mate Erling Haaland is also in contention, and Real Madrid duo Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham are expected to be prominent after their La Liga-Champions League double.

European football journalist and broadcaster Mina Rzouki: "Why would you give it to Rodri?

"I understand he has had a great season and been the difference-maker for Manchester City. But he wasn't the standout player for Spain.

"Vinicius Jr made a difference in every important match in the Champions League, so surely you should go for him. He was the difference between them winning and losing.

"Rodri was just a part of a great team. Rodri deserved it last year because he was the difference between them winning and losing and I was upset he didn’t get it or come close to it.

"This year I would take a difference-maker and that is Vinicius or his Real Madrid team-mate Jude Bellingham. My pick is Vinicius."

French football journalist Julien Laurens: "Kylian Mbappe is the best player in the world but I would give the Ballon d'Or to Rodri.

"Rodri has been as important for his team as Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham have been for their team. That is what great players do.

"Rodri has been the best player in the world for two seasons now. I know he isn't in an offensive position - he doesn’t score goals, do dribbles or tricks.

"But he is the most intelligent player in his position in the world. He is super decisive and the last few years he has been outstanding for club and country. He deserves the Ballon d'Or more than anyone else."

Belgium football expert Kristof Terreur: "It is the end of the star era and you now have the new stars who haven't really performed at the highest level. I lean towards Vinicius Jr."

Spanish football expert Guillem Balague: "Rodri has done everything he has needed at club and international level.

"He plays the role that doesn't usually get accolades but everyone recognises the value of it.

"When Rodri got injured at half-time of the Euros final, the feeling in the stands, among the pundits, even the players, was 'what a gap to fill'. That tells you everyone realises he is the player who dictates the play. Everyone looks up to his leadership as well.

"It is a great opportunity to give an award to an unsung hero. He will be top three but probably won't win it as people tend to favour the players who look good on the ball and are constantly in the highlights for the spectacular."

Who will win the Women's Ballon d'Or?

Three of the four winners since the Ballon d'Or expanded to recognise female footballers in 2018 are again in contention - Bonmati (2023), Spain team-mate Alexia Putellas (2021, 2022) and Norway's Ada Hegerberg (2018).

Five of the United States' Olympic gold medal-winning squad are also nominated - Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, Lindsey Horan, Sophia Smith and Alyssa Naeher.

Balague: "Aitana Bonmati controls the game, has goals, assists, personality. She is growing fantastically well with a team who have taken women's football to a new dimension.

"She has the high standards any midfielder should aspire to, but, because the Ballon d'Or is not just about the football, she also represents the club and national side very well.

"She is a reference for kids on the stands and kids in the game. She is a great representative for football."

Former England midfielder Fara Williams: "I would like to see Lindsey Horan in the top five, but my favourite would be Bonmati. It's her IQ - her game understanding is right up there with the very best.

"She controls the midfield for Barcelona - really gets them going. She doesn't just control it, but she adds goals and assist to her game. When you’re a midfielder and you have those attributes, you’re really key."

Bay FC defender Jen Beattie: "I'm going for Trinity Rodman. She has had an unbelievable season. What she did at the Olympics was incredible.

"She is the perfect combination between pace and technical ability. The speed she gets up to on the field is incredible.

"She really deserves it. What she has done for club and country - that is what puts you in the mix for Ballon d'Or. She has done it on all levels."

Former England forward Ellen White: "Trinity Rodman could win it, or Sophia Smith or Aitana Bonmati.

"But I want to give a shout out to Barbra Banda. She had an amazing Olympics, with successive hat-tricks. She is the second top goalscorer in the NWSL with 13 goals in 20 games."