Spain and Portugal Face Off in World Cup Knockout

On Monday night, the attention of world football will be focused on Dallas, where two European football powerhouses, Spain and Portugal, will face each other in the World Cup Round of 16.

These two neighboring nations from the Iberian Peninsula have had a rivalry for over a century. They have met 43 times so far, with many matches taking place in major international tournaments. But this encounter is considered the biggest, as the winner will secure a place in the World Cup quarterfinals.

Will Ronaldo be in the starting lineup against Spain? Does he deserve it?

If any topic has garnered more attention in the World Cup so far than hydration breaks, VAR technology, or the Golden Boot race, it is the role of 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo in the Portuguese team. In the first match against DR Congo in Group K, he played the full 90 minutes but missed some excellent chances. He then came under criticism.

However, he responded to his critics by scoring two goals against Uzbekistan. With that, he became the first player to score in six World Cups. He also had opportunities to score more goals in Portugal's 5-0 victory.

After the match, Ronaldo, who wrote 'I am back' on social media, was not particularly impressive against Colombia in the final group stage match. Portugal advanced to the knockout stage as group runners-up with a goalless draw.

In the thrilling victory against Croatia, a glimpse of the old Ronaldo was seen. His beautiful goal after excellent control was disallowed for offside, and in the second half, he scored the equalizer from a penalty. However, in the 81st minute, while the game was balanced, coach Roberto Martinez substituted him off. Ronaldo initially appeared disappointed. He shook his head, showing his displeasure. But he eventually left the field.

Gonçalo Ramos, who came on in his place, scored the decisive header in injury time, taking Portugal to the Round of 16.

Now the question arises. Will Martinez trust Ramos against Spain as well, or will he keep Ronaldo in the starting lineup? In the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, then-coach Fernando Santos also benched Ronaldo in the Round of 16 match against Switzerland. Before that, he was substituted in the final group stage match against South Korea when the score was 1-1. South Korea won that match in the final moments.

After that, Ramos scored a hat-trick against Switzerland, leading Portugal to a 6-1 victory. Ronaldo only entered the field for the last 17 minutes.

However, even this time, Ronaldo has a strong chance of making it into the starting lineup. He is a player for big games. But his challenge will be very difficult against Spain's strong defense, which has kept a clean sheet in five consecutive World Cup matches.

Martinez has already indicated that he might substitute Ronaldo again in the middle if necessary for victory.

History favors Spain

Spain and Portugal have met five times in major international tournaments. Both have won one match each, while three matches have ended in draws. In the 2018 World Cup, these two teams played a thrilling 3-3 draw, where Ronaldo scored a spectacular hat-trick.

Similarly, the Euro 2012 semi-final ended goalless, and Spain won on penalties. However, Portugal has won only one of their last 12 competitive matches against Spain. That was a 1-0 victory in the Euro 2004 group stage with a goal from Nuno Gomes. But the memory of beating Spain on penalties in the 2025 UEFA Nations League final gives Portugal confidence.

Spain's prediction against Portugal

Spain is clearly considered the favorite before the match. Coach Luis de la Fuente's team is unbeaten in their last 34 matches, with 25 wins and 9 draws. If this continues, Spain will equal their longest unbeaten run in history of 35 matches. De la Fuente himself is unbeaten in his first 11 matches as a coach in the World Cup and Euros. Spain has conceded only four goals in those matches.

If Spain defeats Portugal, De la Fuente will become the third coach to remain unbeaten in the first 12 matches of a major international tournament, after Aime Jacquet and Louis van Gaal.

Spain's performance has been excellent not only in results but also in game statistics. In this World Cup, their average expected goals (xG) difference is +1.80, which is the best among European teams to have passed the group stage since France in 1998.

Opta's supercomputer predicts that in 49.2% of 25,000 simulations, Spain will win in the regulation 90 minutes. Portugal's chances of winning are 25.6%, while the probability of a draw (leading to extra time or penalties) is 25.2%.

Lamine Yamal's role

18-year-old Lamine Yamal is one of the most talented young players in world football. However, he has not yet shown his true potential in this World Cup.

His participation in the World Cup was in doubt after a hamstring injury sustained while playing for Barcelona in April. He played only 141 minutes in the group stage. He played against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, and also scored a goal in the second match. According to coach De la Fuente, he is now fully fit. In the Round of 32 match against Austria, he started on the left wing and put in a very impressive performance. Every time he got the ball, a wave of excitement spread among the spectators.

A 'nightmare' game for FIFA?

This match between Spain and Portugal is considered the biggest clash of the Round of 16. Portugal not finishing as group winners might have caused some disappointment for the organizers as well, as it made the knockout journey difficult and ended the possibility of a Messi vs. Ronaldo quarterfinal.

After Germany and the Netherlands were eliminated in the Round of 32, the hosts might not have wanted to lose another strong team, but after this match, one of Spain or Portugal will inevitably be eliminated from the competition. The winner of this match will play against the winner of USA or Belgium in the quarterfinals. Then, a potential semi-final would be against France or Morocco. Now, a potential meeting between Ronaldo and Messi can only happen in the final on July 19.

Will the midfield decide the game?

Against Austria, Spain delivered their most balanced performance of this World Cup. Rodri and Pedri are the heart of Spain's midfield. They have played from the start in all four matches. De la Fuente has also given opportunities to Dani Olmo, Mikel Merino, and Fabián Ruiz. Olmo appears to be the first choice now.

On the other hand, Portugal's midfield is equally strong. João Neves and Vitinha played crucial roles in leading Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) to the UEFA Champions League title for the second consecutive time, while Bruno Fernandes had an excellent season with Manchester United.

Although Rúben Neves got an opportunity in the final group stage match, Martinez is expected to field his trusted trio against Spain.

Spain has dominated possession in all four of their matches, and Portugal has also shown the same performance in all matches except against Colombia. After the victory against Croatia, Martinez said, 'We know Spain very well, and they know us very well. It will be a great game. Both teams want to control the ball, attack, win the ball back quickly, and create chances.'

The team that wins the midfield battle in this match will likely secure a place in the World Cup quarterfinals in Los Angeles.