Trump's Pragmatic China Policy Could Help Avoid New Cold War

Readers who have read my old articles know well that I am not a supporter of Donald Trump's foreign policy for his second term. From occupying Greenland to threatening to annex Canada into the United States, from unilaterally increasing tariffs to an excessively large extent to the failed Iran war, Trump's activities and decisions have appeared not only careless and chaotic but also deeply destabilizing.

I have always expressed my clear views on this. Amidst all these decisions, I have found common ground with him in one important area. I feel that such a decision is not only at the level of correct understanding but is also possibly correct from a policy perspective. That is – US-China relations.

In his recent interactions with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, we had the opportunity to see a different and rare side of Trump. Trump presented himself with great respect. His style was completely different. He seemed to be trying hard to build a good personal relationship with Xi.

But on the other hand, Xi Jinping appeared formal, disciplined, and normal. He did not try to appear special at any time. Such a wonderful inequality in behavior is telling us something.

Trump is only interested in power. He is more concerned about his dominance and its basis than any values or ideology. He behaves with those weaker than him accordingly. He even insults European partner countries disrespectfully. Because he knows that Europeans depend on American security assistance and access to the American market. Trump immediately recognizes weakness. And he uses it immediately.

But in the context of China, he has understood some different things. Things that are emotionally difficult for many people in Washington, including policymakers, to accept. What Trump has understood is that Beijing has its own immense power in economic, technological, industrial, and military fields. Moreover, Beijing can also use such power effectively.

Therefore, despite being aggressive, Trump has moved towards a complex mix of rivalry and cooperation. In fact, this may be what is needed for now.

You can also compare Trump's recent visit to China with the first meeting between their Chinese counterparts and Biden administration officials in Anchorage, Alaska, in 2021. When the Americans began to publicly criticize China on television, raising issues of human rights, cyber attacks, and international order, the situation was not normal.

Chinese diplomats began to react angrily. This was not just a public quarrel seen in the news. It was actually a serious diplomatic message.

Many moderate Democratic leaders are afraid of being portrayed as 'soft on China'. Because of this fear, they often try to protect themselves by making reckless statements. They escalate a symbolic confrontation by speaking harshly. Former President Joe Biden expressed doubts about the tariffs Trump imposed against China during his first term.

He also promised to remove such tariffs after being elected. But after becoming president, he kept almost all those tariffs in place. Not only that, but Biden never visited China as president. He also did not invite Xi Jinping to visit the United States.

The Biden team also supported some of the claims made by the Trump administration. They strongly raised the claim that China's activities in the Xinjiang region have created a kind of genocide. The word used in the accusation referred to industrial-scale destructive campaigns like Hitler's 'Holocaust' in Germany or the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.

Dozens of scholars have called the alleged actions against Uyghurs in Xinjiang's Chinese prisons and re-education camps cruel and horrific, calling it genocide. But according to the famous newspaper 'The Economist', the situation there was not of the type and scale that this word expresses.

Trump has a kind of superpower. That is, he cannot be attacked from the right. He appeared as an opponent of China before the 2016 election. He came to power by blaming China for the loss of production and employment in America, trade imbalance, and America's industrial decline. But after coming to power, his behavior began to change.

Compared to past presidents, we can compare this event to Ronald Reagan rather than Richard Nixon, who improved relations with China. Reagan was a strong opponent of the Soviet Union, but later he himself took the initiative to improve relations.

Today, Trump can also make a similar turnaround. Because he has a political base and a rank of activists who are ready to follow Trump wherever he turns. It is necessary to remember the scenario where many personalities associated with 'Make America Great Again' or 'MAGA' immediately stood by Trump after he signaled support for military action in Iran.

Now let's discuss why a more coordinated approach towards China will be meaningful. Today, the truth we must accept is that there is a big difference between China and the Soviet Union. According to one study's measurement, by the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union's economy was smaller than Italy's. But on the contrary, today's China is the world's second-largest economy.

It is the main trading partner for more than 120 countries. It is also a 'powerhouse' in areas such as electric vehicles and batteries, drones, advanced technology products, and artificial intelligence.

Today's China produces more industrial goods than the United States, Japan, and Germany combined. Starting a full-scale cold war with such a country is not at all like the struggle against the Soviet Union. At that time, the world was divided into two parts. But such a cold war today will surely cause great damage to the global economy.

American consumers will face not only high prices but also major shocks in the supply chain. American companies will lose access to the world's largest market. American universities will lose top students. Such a struggle will not only cause economic pain. The world will be divided into two aggressive technological and geopolitical blocs, which will gradually lead us all to confrontation.

Certainly, China and the United States are competitors. This is impossible to stop in a bipolar world. For the next few decades, these two countries will be competing in economic, military, and strategic fields. Henry Kissinger, just weeks before his death, told me a story and emphasized the need for cooperation today.

He said that both China and the United States should pay attention to the context of the blind nationalist competition in 1914 that overturned the global order.

We are now in the age of 'AI', 'Cyber Warfare', and nuclear weapons. In such a time, building reliable structures for mutual coordination is becoming even more important than before. The United States and China must compete fiercely in various fields. But while doing so, the door for trade, negotiation, and cooperation should not be closed.

Cooperation must also continue to combat problems such as nuclear stability, AI security, pandemics, and financial crises. Even during the Cold War, there were arms control talks between Moscow and Washington. Even amidst intense tension or aggressive activities, their discussions reflected an understanding that the risk of chaotic competition would lead to mutual destruction.

That context is equally true today. If Trump has reached a place of understanding this basic necessity due to his inner feelings rather than his philosophy, then at least his pragmatism on this issue should be considered meaningful.

(From The Washington Post)