US-Iran War Likely to End in American Retreat

The war that America and Israel started against Iran on February 28, 2026, will likely end with America's retreat. America cannot continue this war without bringing devastating consequences. 

If tensions escalate again, the region's oil, gas, and water desalination infrastructure are likely to be destroyed. This will cause a global crisis for a long time. Iran may force America to pay a price it cannot afford and the world should not have to bear.

The America-Israel war plan was to eliminate the leadership. This plan was prepared by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea after convincing President Donald Trump. 

Their assumption was that the aggressive joint bombing campaign by America and Israel would weaken the command structure of the Iranian regime, its nuclear program, and the top leadership of the IRGC, leading to the downfall of the regime. After that, America and Israel planned to impose a government of their choice in Tehran.

Iran's action could not establish a government of its choice in Tehran. Historically, technically, culturally, geographically, militarily, demographically, or geopolitically, Iran is not Venezuela.

It appears Trump believed that what happened in Venezuela would also happen in Iran. The US action in Venezuela in January 2026 led to the removal of President Nicolas Maduro. This seemed like a coordinated action between the CIA and elements within Venezuela's state apparatus. 

While most of Venezuela's power structure remained intact, America achieved a government of its choice. Trump appears to have foolishly believed that similar results would come in Iran.

However, Iran's action could not establish a government of its choice in Tehran. Historically, technically, culturally, geographically, militarily, demographically, or geopolitically, Iran is not Venezuela. What happened in Caracas had very little to do with what would happen in Tehran.

The Iranian government did not fall. Instead of being destroyed, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) emerged with an expanded role in a rigid internal command and national security structure. The Supreme Leader's office remained, religious institutions united in its support, and the people rallied together against the external attack.

Even after two months, there is no successor government in Iran under the control of Trump and Netanyahu. Iran has not surrendered to end the war, and there is no military path to victory left. The only path remaining now is to retreat, and America appears to be taking that path. In this situation, control of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in Iran's hands, and no other issues between America and Iran will be resolved.

America's devastating miscalculation and Iran's success are confirmed by various reasons.

American leaders greatly underestimated Iran's technological development. Iran has world-class engineering and mathematics.

First, American leaders fundamentally misunderstood Iran. Iran is a great civilization with 5,000 years of history, a deep culture, national resilience, and pride. The Iranian government was not going to bow to American threats and bombings. 

In particular, Iranians still remember how America destroyed Iran's democracy in 1953 by overthrowing the democratically elected government and establishing a police state that lasted for 27 years.

Second, American leaders greatly underestimated Iran's technological development. Iran has world-class engineering and mathematics. It has developed its own defense industrial base, including advanced ballistic missiles, an indigenous drone industry, and the capability to launch into space. The technological development Iran has achieved despite 40 years of increasing sanctions is an astonishing national achievement.

Third, military technology has tilted in Iran's favor. The cost of Iran's ballistic missiles is significantly lower than the American interceptors deployed to stop them. An Iranian drone costs $20,000, while an American air defense interceptor missile costs $4 million. Iran's anti-ship missiles, costing millions of dollars, threaten American destroyers costing $2 to $3 billion.

Iran's anti-access and area-denial network around the Gulf, layered air defenses, drone and missile strike capabilities, and maritime interdiction capabilities in waterways have made the cost of imposing American will on Iran far more expensive than America can afford. This also needs to consider the retaliatory destruction Iran could inflict on neighboring countries.

Fourth, American policymaking has become irrational. The decision for the Iran war was made by a small circle of loyalists at Mar-a-Lago. No formal inter-agency process was followed, and the National Security Council had been hollowed out for the previous year. 

Joe Kent, Director of Trump's National Center for Counterterrorism, resigned on March 17 with a public letter detailing the use of an 'echo chamber' to deceive the president. This war was the product of such a decision-making process where the mechanism for discussion was shut down.

The upcoming retreat will undoubtedly be portrayed by Trump as a great military and strategic victory. But none of these claims will be true.

This was neither a war of necessity nor of choice. It was a war of impulse. Its underlying basis was to assert dominance. America was trying to preserve a global dominance it no longer possessed, and Israel was trying to establish regional dominance it could never achieve.

Considering all these factors, this war will likely end close to the previous state/status quo, except for three new realities. First, Iran will have operational control of the Strait of Hormuz. Second, Iran's deterrent capability will significantly increase. Third, America's long-term military presence in the Gulf will be considerably reduced. Other issues that provoked America to attack Iran—Iran's nuclear program, regional proxy groups, and missile stockpiles—will likely be left out of the initial phase of the war.

Even if America retreats, Iran will not try to take advantage of its neighbors. There are three reasons for this. First, Iran has a long-term strategic interest in cooperating with its Gulf neighbors rather than engaging in constant conflict. Second, Iran has no interest in restarting a war it has just successfully concluded. Third, if any restraint is needed, Iran's superpower allies, Russia and China, will restrain it. Both these countries want a stable and prosperous region. The Iranian leadership clearly understands this and will prevent a fight.

The upcoming retreat will undoubtedly be portrayed by Trump as a great military and strategic victory. But none of these claims will be true. The truth is, Iran is far more sophisticated than America understood, the decision to go to war was irrational, and the fundamental technology of warfare has shifted against America. The American empire cannot win the war against Iran by paying an acceptable economic, military, and political price. 

However, what America can regain is some degree of rationality. It is time for America to stop its regime-change campaigns and return to the path of international law and diplomacy.

From Al Jazeera