BJP's West Bengal Victory Signals Continued Expansion

For years, Western liberals and opposition political forces within India were optimistic based on one principle. In their view, Narendra Modi is authoritarian and India's extraordinary diversity would ultimately not be able to sustain such a strong ruler or authoritarian. Therefore, Modi's illiberal rule would naturally face difficulties.

However, last Monday, that principle likely suffered its biggest blow. The Bharatiya Janata Party, emerging as the largest political party in India's history, has achieved a remarkable victory.

Amidst election and victory news from other states, the victory in West Bengal is truly significant. West Bengal was generally considered a place where Modi and his party could not 'appeal'. The Bharatiya Janata Party has achieved victory in West Bengal, a region with a population larger than California, Texas, and New York combined, culturally distinct from other parts of India, and aggressively considered autonomous. Surely, India's opposition will soon learn from its latest and most significant loss.

The results that came last Monday do not just signal a normal change of power in one state. For decades, strong regional political parties in India have been posing a formidable obstacle to the national expansion of the Bharatiya Janata Party. Due to such parties, which are connected to the grassroots at the local level and are vocal about their state's language and identity, the BJP, considered influential in the Hindi-speaking regions of North India, could not establish a foothold in those states.

The Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, was considered equally influential in West Bengal. Its presence provided credible reliability to the notion that India's plurality could not be contained by any single party. It was even considered more difficult for a party like the BJP, with a strong vision of singular cultural nationalism. But by defeating Banerjee last Monday, the BJP has shown that it can now easily break regional and cultural bonds.

BJP's rivals may wait for the day of its decline, but there is no sign of such a day coming soon. Looking closely at the overall situation, one must prepare for the next decade.

Even before this victory, the number of states won by the BJP in India was already very large. The BJP was already ahead in many other statistics. Today, the BJP claims to have 140 million party members. This number is much larger than any party on earth. In terms of membership, its closest rival, the Communist Party of China, has only about 40 percent of that number.

The largest number of votes in history has been cast in Modi's name. He has received millions more votes compared to other world leaders. According to 'Morning Consult', an organization that studies the acceptability of global leaders, Narendra Modi has easily surpassed other democratically elected leaders in terms of votes.

Based on the transformation of all these statistics into power in a democracy, Hindu nationalism has become the most successful political movement in the contemporary world.

Critics, however, hold a different opinion. Their differing opinion is not irrational. According to them, electoral success alone does not demonstrate the strength of democracy. Furthermore, they argue that the BJP and India's expanded Hindu nationalist movement are negatively impacting its liberal institutions, press freedom, and plural social unity.

Minorities are reportedly victims of violence and discrimination under Modi's rule. According to them, the situation of ballots and voting is not as it appears. The BJP has manipulated electoral rules to its advantage, breaking the rules of the game. The Election Commission is not allowed to remain independent. The system of donations or contributions in elections is tailored to its advantage, ensuring significant financial benefits compared to other rivals. In West Bengal, it is alleged that about 9 million voters were removed from the voter list before the election, disenfranchising them.

That number accounts for about 12 percent of the total electorate. Although the Election Commission stated that it removed duplicate, ineligible, and deceased voters, critics point out that a large number of Muslim voters were among those removed. It is said that a large portion of those voters, who would have voted against the BJP, were removed from the voter list.

The Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, was considered influential in West Bengal, but the largest number of votes in history has been cast in Modi's name. Compared to other world leaders, he has received millions more votes.

However, we cannot attribute the BJP's success solely to clever electoral management. In West Bengal, the BJP has won nearly two-thirds of the seats. Within 50 years of its establishment, the BJP, once considered a negligible political force, is now successful in forming governments in 21 states of India. The Indian National Congress, which led India's independence, is now limited to just 4 states.

The difference between the BJP and Congress is also noteworthy. Today's Congress inherited its political influence. It led India's freedom struggle. It had a hold among the English-speaking elite within India. During its half-century rule, it established various institutions. It selected ideas from global trends on how to manage society and applied them in India.

The story of the BJP, on the other hand, is a bit different. It adopted a more arduous path to build its dominance. It ran a campaign of grassroots organization building for decades. It gradually formed alliances favorable to its ideology across various castes, languages, regions, and religions. It transformed all this effort into votes.

Today, the foundation of the BJP's success is the group of organizations under the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), i.e., the Sangh Parivar. The RSS is a controversial Hindu nationalist volunteer organization that is a hundred years old. Its focus is on nurturing millions of workers and dozens of organizations for the renaissance of Hindu society. The BJP is an organization under it. Besides the BJP, the RSS spreads its message through many other organizations.

Today, India's largest labor union, private school network, student unions, and influential organizations of Hindu religious leaders are all organizations under the RSS. This organic network, through the meticulous work of compromise and alliance building among them in Indian society, laid the foundation for the extraordinary rise of today's BJP.

As India increases its role among global superpowers, the BJP is also further consolidating its power. India is presenting itself in global politics as a country with the largest population, the second-largest military power in terms of troop numbers, the third-largest economy, and a nation with the potential to balance China in Asia.

Amidst all these circumstances, the BJP's victory in West Bengal shows that its expansion will not stop. BJP's rivals may still be waiting for the day of its decline as they hoped. There is no sign of such a day coming soon. Those closely observing the overall situation must prepare for India's next decade. We must be ready to witness and experience the balance of power in Asia being built on the broad foundation of Hindu nationalism in the coming decade.

(From The Washington Post)