China Accelerates Lunar Strategy, Signaling Global Power Shift in Space Exploration

Kathmandu. Centering on the Moon, China has intensified its long-term strategy in the space sector, signaling an impact on the global balance of power. Moving forward with the goal of landing humans on the Moon by 2030, China has subsequently publicized its ambitions to build a lunar base and eventually reach Mars, creating a situation that challenges the traditional dominance of the United States.

While the US space agency NASA is preparing for its Artemis-2 crewed lunar mission, China is steadily advancing its program according to its long-term plan. China's crewed space program, 'Project 921,' which began on September 21, 1992, is now considered to have reached a mature stage. Since astronaut Yang Liwei made the first flight in 2003, China has successfully conducted approximately 15 crewed missions.

After separating from the International Space Station in 2011, China constructed its own 'Tiangong' space station, which has been hosting astronauts since 2021. Currently, three Chinese astronauts are aboard the station. Through this platform, China is accumulating extensive experience in spacewalks, docking, maintenance, and the effects of space on the human body. Notably, none of China's crewed launches have resulted in a crash to date.

According to experts, the main strength of China's space program lies in its stable policy and long-term planning. Professor Richard de Grijs of Macquarie University in Australia stated that high political commitment, continuous investment, and integrated development of the industrial structure have helped China progress consistently. He noted that because priorities do not change with political cycles as they do in Western countries, China's model is more predictable and effective in terms of risk management.

China has put forward a plan to land humans on the Moon by 2030. The necessary technologies for this are being rapidly developed. In 2026, a new spacecraft named 'Mengzhou' is being prepared for a test flight, which will replace the older 'Shenzhou.' Similarly, a powerful rocket named 'Long March-10' is in the final stages of development, which will carry the spacecraft to lunar orbit. The 'Lanyu' lander for descent onto the lunar surface is expected to be tested between 2028-2029.

China's goal is not limited to just landing. It plans to establish an 'International Lunar Research Station' near the Moon's south pole by 2035. This area is considered scientifically and strategically important due to the potential presence of water. Russia is collaborating on this project. The technology to construct a base using 3D printers with lunar soil to create bricks is in the testing phase, and preparations are underway to use it on the Moon through the 'Chang-8' mission.

China is also developing a network of relay satellites to facilitate communication between Earth and the far side of the Moon. This is expected to ease future long-term missions.

However, China does not formally consider this a competition with the United States. According to astronomer Jonathan McDowell, for China, the Moon is not a symbol of competition but the next natural stage of progress. However, he noted that if a lunar base is established, it will pose a challenge for the US due to the limited suitable locations.

Analysts currently suggest that China is still somewhat behind the US in human spaceflight technology. According to space expert Chen Lan, NASA's 'Dragon' and 'Orion' spacecraft are more advanced than China's 'Shenzhou.' However, it is expected that China will close this gap if the crewed lunar landing with new technology is successful by 2030.

In the long term, China's focus is centered on Mars. The plan is to use the lunar base as a testing ground for Mars missions after 2040. Scientists view Mars as the future destination for humanity, but it is analyzed that concrete steps towards it are unlikely until the initial lunar projects are successful.