Left-Wing Parties Suffer Major Setback in Federal Parliament Elections; Alliance Could Have Secured More Seats

Kathmandu. The leftist bloc faced its biggest shock in Nepali political history in the House of Representatives election held on Falgun 21. Out of 275 seats in the House of Representatives, in the first-past-the-post system across 165 constituencies, leftist parties won a total of only 17 seats, with CPN-UML winning 9 and CPN winning 8.

CPN-UML won in Taplejung, Ilam-2, Dhankuta, Sankhuwasabha, Banke-2, Darchula, Bajhang, Achham-2, and Dailekh-2. CPN-UML came second in 41 constituencies. CPN won in Rolpa, Rukum East, Rukum West, Dolpa, Kalikot, Salyan, Dhanusha-1, and Sindhupalchok-2, coming second in 17 locations.

In the proportional representation category, CPN-UML won 16 seats and CPN won 9, totaling 25 seats. The total number of seats won by the leftist parties, combining direct and proportional representation, is 42.

In the previous election, CPN (comprising the then CPN (Maoist Centre) and Unified Socialist) alone had 42 seats. Leftist parties had won a total of 122 seats, including 78 for CPN-UML, and one each for Nepal Workers' and Peasants' Party (NWPP) and Rastriya Janamorcha (RJ).

The Nepal Workers' and Peasants' Party and Rastriya Janamorcha, which had won in every election since 2048 BS, failed to secure representation in the House of Representatives this time.

In the 2079 BS election, CPN-UML, which was the top party by securing the highest popular votes in proportional representation, dropped to third place this time with 1,455,885 votes. CPN, which received nearly 1.5 million votes in the previous election, shrank to fourth place this time with 811,577 votes.

NWPP could not even cross 50,000 votes, RJ 30,000 votes, and the newly formed Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) in its first election failed to cross 25,000 votes. CPN-UML had been the top party in terms of popular votes consecutively in the 2070, 2074, and 2079 BS elections.

Maoist, which became the top party in 2064 BS, had remained in third place in the three subsequent elections. This time, CPN, formed by the merger of various components, was limited to fourth place.

Political circles are discussing that the leftist movement in Nepal has been pushed towards a crisis due to the wrong policies of CPN-UML, which led the government during the J-J movement held on Bhadra 23 and 24. The leftist parties are in the biggest crisis as the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), formed three years ago, captured nearly two-thirds of the seats, winning 125 in direct and 57 in proportional representation, totaling 182 seats.

Nepali Congress, the top party in the previous election, was relegated to second place, securing a total of 38 seats—18 in direct and 20 in proportional representation.

In the 2074 BS election, they succeeded in winning close to a two-thirds majority due to the electoral alliance with the two major leftist parties, CPN-UML and the then CPN (Maoist Centre). This time, the major damage seems to be due to the nationwide wave seen for RSP, the role played by the communist-led government in suppressing the J-J movement, internal contradictions within CPN-UML, and the division of CPN component parties.

Overall, the leftist vote share, which was 42.06 percent in the previous parliament, has shrunk to 21.50 percent this time. This vote share is the weakest in 34 years.

However, the election results clearly show that CPN-UML and CPN could have secured 27 seats if they had contested together. The vote results indicate a possibility of winning four seats if these two parties had united. But in Madhesh Province, even if all leftist parties united, they do not appear in a position to win a single seat.

Leftist parties have also suffered a major blow in Gandaki Province. The direct benefit of leftist parties competing against each other seems to have gone to RSP and Congress. A brief analysis of how many seats could have been secured in which province if a leftist alliance had been formed is presented here.   

• Koshi Province

In Koshi Province, which has 28 constituencies, the leftist bloc could have secured victories in Panchthar, Ilam-1, Tehrathum, Bhojpur, Solukhumbu, Khotang, and Okhaldhunga, with a possibility of winning Udayapur-2.

In Panchthar, Congress candidate Narendra Kumar Kerung won with 17,233 votes. The candidate from Shram Sanskriti Party, Hast Raj Sherma, came second with 14,734 votes. CPN-UML's Aindra Sundar Nemwang came third with 14,534 votes. CPN's Harka Bahadur Nemwang came fourth with 11,443 votes. The total votes secured by Aindra and Harka are 25,977. Based on this, a victory would have been possible in this constituency if there had been an alliance between leftist parties.

Similarly, in Ilam-1, Congress's Nishkal Rai won with 14,543 votes. Shram Sanskriti Party's Binod Nemwang Limbu came second with 13,632 votes. CPN-UML's Kajiman Kagate was third with 11,966 votes. CPN's Ran Bahadur Rai was fourth with 7,665 votes. The total votes secured by CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 19,631, which is higher than the votes secured by the elected candidate Nishkal Rai, indicating a potential victory for a leftist alliance in this area.

In Tehrathum, Congress's Santosh Subba won with 11,561 votes. His closest competitor, CPN-UML's Bhanubhakta Dhakal, received 10,682 votes. Adding the 919 votes secured by CPN's Randhaj Limbu, who was in fifth place, the total leftist vote count is 11,601. Based on the combined votes of these two leftist candidates, a narrow victory for the leftist alliance appears likely.

In Bhojpur, which was won by the then Maoist Centre in the previous election, the candidate from the new party Shram Sanskriti Party, Dhurbaraj Rai, won with 16,663 votes. His competitor, CPN-UML's Sherdhan Rai, received 14,750 votes. CPN's Ajambar Rai Kangmang, in fifth place, received 5,728 votes. The combined votes of these two candidates are 20,478. The benefit of the leftist competition was reaped by Shram Sanskriti.

In Solukhumbu, Congress's Prakash Singh Karki won with 13,166 votes. His competitor, CPN's Asim Rai, received 9,414 votes. CPN-UML's Kalpana Rai, in third place, received 8,228 votes. The total votes secured by CPN and CPN-UML candidates are 17,642.

In Khotang, Shram Sanskriti's Aren Rai won with 16,612 votes. His competitor, CPN-UML's Dev Bikram Rai, received 12,714 votes. CPN's Hari Roka, in fourth place, received 9,443 votes. The total votes secured by CPN-UML and CPN candidates in this constituency are 22,157, which is more than the votes of the elected candidate Aren Rai.

In Okhaldhunga, RSP's Bishwa Raj Pokharel won by a margin of just five votes. He won with 13,953 votes, while the closest competitor, Congress's Kumar Luintel, received 13,948 votes. CPN's Amir Babu Gurung received 11,296 votes. CPN-UML's Asmita Thapa received 10,720 votes. The combined votes of CPN and CPN-UML candidates are 22,016, which is sufficient for a win.

In Udayapur-2, a victory would have been possible if the leftist parties had resolved their internal conflicts. Here, RSP's Surya Bahadur Tamang won with 14,802 votes, while CPN-UML's Ambar Bahadur Rayamajhi received 7,648 votes. CPN's Suresh Kumar Rai received 5,197 votes. It appears that the votes were influenced because CPN took action against Major Rai for filing a rebel candidacy against the party's official candidate.

• Madhesh Province

Leftist parties were swept away in Madhesh Province, which has 32 constituencies, in this election. However, the Election Commission declared CPN candidate Matrika Yadav victorious in the controversial Dhanusha-1. Yadav succeeded because the candidacy of RSP's Kishori Sah was canceled by the Election Commission just before the voting. The dispute regarding this is currently under consideration by the Supreme Court.

The election results show that the wave in favor of RSP would not have been affected even if the Madhesh leftist alliance had contested together, as RSP candidates won by huge margins in all constituencies except Rautahat-2.

It appears that the fact that Balendra Shah, the prospective Prime Ministerial candidate for RSP, is from Mahottari had a significant impact on the voters. Madhesi parties, which had influence in Madhesh since 2048 BS, failed to win a single seat this time.  

• Bagmati Province

Leftist parties did not win a single seat in Kathmandu Valley, the federal capital, this time. In Bagmati Province, which has a total of 33 seats, CPN won in Sindhupalchok-2. Congress candidates won in Rasuwa, but CPN-UML did not win a single seat in this province.

RSP achieved victory in Bhaktapur-1, which had been ruled by the Nepal Workers' and Peasants' Party for 34 years. However, if a leftist alliance had been formed, there is a clear basis for winning in Ramachhap, Sindhuli-1 and 2, Bhaktapur-1, Kavre-1, Sindhupalchok-1, Makwanpur-2, and a strong possibility of winning in Dolakha and Nuwakot-1.

In Ramachhap, RSP's Krishna Hari Budhathoki won with 24,808 votes. His closest competitor, CPN-UML's Madhav Prasad Dhungel, received 17,609 votes. CPN's Shyam Kumar Shrestha, in fourth place, received 13,354 votes. The total votes secured by CPN-UML and CPN here are 30,963, which is about 8,000 more than the elected RSP candidate.

In Sindhuli-1, RSP's Dhanendra Karki won with 16,659 votes. His closest competitor, CPN-UML's Pradip Kumar Katuwal Chhetri, received 15,875 votes. CPN's Dekendra Prasad Subedi, in fourth place, received 4,708 votes. The total votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates amount to 20,583, based on which it is clearly the situation that a leftist candidate would have been elected if a leftist alliance had been formed here.  

In Sindhuli-2, RSP's Ashish Gajurel won with 17,940 votes, while CPN's Lekhnath Dahal received 14,780 votes. CPN-UML's Manojjung Thapa received 11,606 votes. The total votes secured by CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 26,386, which is more than the votes of the elected candidate Gajurel.

Bhaktapur-1 was considered the stronghold of the Nepal Workers' and Peasants' Party. Here, RSP's Rukesh Ranjit won with 33,436 votes, while his closest competitor, CPN's Prem Suwal, received 28,147 votes. CPN-UML's Som Prasad Mishra was in fourth place with 3,721 votes. CPN's Hariram Labaju, in sixth place, received 1,177 votes. The combined votes of NWPP, CPN-UML, and CPN here total 33,045.   

In Sindhupalchok-1, RSP's Bharat Prasad Parajuli won with 24,412 votes. His competitor, CPN's Madhav Sapkot, received 17,327 votes. CPN-UML's Suresh Nepal received 11,961 votes. The total votes secured by leftist party candidates in this constituency are 29,288. The Maoist Centre had been winning this seat since 2064 BS.

In Makwanpur-2, RSP's Prashant Upreti won with 30,050 votes. CPN-UML's Mahesh Bartaula received 18,846 votes. CPN's Labshere Bista, in fourth place, received 12,492 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates are 31,338, which is more than the votes of the elected candidate Upreti.

In Dolakha, RSP's Jagdish Kharel won with 32,376 votes. CPN-UML's Parbat Gurung received 17,449 votes, and CPN's Bishal Khadka received 13,065 votes. The combined votes of Gurung and Khadka are 30,514. Based on this, there appears to be a possibility of winning here if a leftist alliance had been formed.

In Kavre-1, RSP's Madhu Kumar Chaulagain won with 29,618 votes. Congress's Gunaraj Muktan received 19,166 votes in second place. CPN's Dinanath Gautam received 14,184 votes, and CPN-UML's Ami Tamang received 13,814 votes. The total votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 27,998, based on which the leftist vote count is higher than that of the elected RSP candidate here.

In Nuwakot-1, RSP's Vikram Timilsina won with 22,609 votes. Congress's Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat received 18,597 votes. CPN's Hitbahadur Tamang received 13,377 votes. CPN-UML's Badri Mainali received 8,932 votes, and Nepal Communist Party (Maoist)'s Mahendra Tamang received 156 votes. The total votes of leftist candidates here are 22,465.

• Gandaki Province

Leftist forces appear very weak in Gandaki Province, which has 18 constituencies. Only a leftist candidate is seen winning in Baglung-2 if they had contested with an alliance in Gandaki Province.

In Baglung-2, RSP candidate Shom Sharma won with 12,647 votes. His closest competitor, Congress's Tekraj Poudel, received 11,868 votes. CPN's Gyananath Gaire received 10,709 votes, and CPN-UML's Manju Sharma received 7,864 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates are 18,573, which the election results show is sufficient for a victory if there had been an alliance.

• Lumbini Province

In Lumbini Province, which has a total of 26 constituencies, victories would have been certain for the leftist alliance in Gulmi-2, Kapilvastu-2, Pyuthan, and Bardiya-2 if they had contested as an alliance.

In Gulmi-2, RSP candidate Govinda Panthi won by a narrow margin. Panthi won with 16,967 votes, while the closest competitor Gokul Bista received 16,406 votes. CPN's Shriram Mahat, in fourth place, received 3,081 votes. The combined votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 19,487.

In Kapilvastu-2, RSP's Bikram Thapa won with 27,635 votes. Congress's Surendra Raj Acharya received 21,527 votes. CPN's Brijesh Kumar Gupta received 20,482 votes, while CPN-UML's Driganarayan Pandey received 7,357 votes. Here too, the total votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates are more than those of the elected RSP candidate Thapa. The total votes of leftist party candidates here are 27,839.

In Pyuthan, RSP's Sushant Baidya won with 27,469 votes. His closest competitor, Congress's Dr. Govinda Pokharel, received 18,338 votes. CPN-UML's Surya Thapa Chhetri received 16,710 votes. CPN's Krishnadwaj Khadka received 9,074 votes, and RJ's Tilak Bahadur GC received 7,654 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates here are 33,438.

In Bardiya-2, RSP's Shridhar Pokharel won with 29,678 votes. Congress's Kishor Singh Rathore received 20,420 votes. CPN's Suresh Pantha received 19,180 votes, and CPN-UML's Bimala Bik received 10,772 votes. The total votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates here are 29,952, which is more than the votes of the elected candidate.

• Karnali Province

Statistics show that if the leftist forces had united in Karnali Province, which is a Maoist stronghold, the results would have been better this time. Out of 12 constituencies in Karnali, CPN won 4 seats and CPN-UML won one. Due to competition among the leftists, Mugu, Jumla, Humla, Jajarkot, and Dailekh-1 were lost. Statistics indicate that victory would have been in favor of the leftists if there had been an alliance in those areas.

In Mugu, Congress's Khadga Shahi won with 7,914 votes. CPN-UML's Purnabahadur Rokaya received 6,718 votes, and CPN's Chandra Bahadur Shahi received 5,558 votes. The total votes secured by these two candidates are 12,276.

In Jumla, RPP's Gyan Bahadur Shahi won with 14,816 votes. CPN's Naresh Bhandari received 11,635 votes, and CPN-UML's Shantilal Mahat, in fourth place, received 4,518 votes. The combined votes of these two candidates are 16,153.

In Humla, Congress's Jayapati Rokaya won with 8,797 votes. CPN's Dr. Dipendra Rokaya received 7,243 votes, and CPN-UML's Dal Phadera received 4,331 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates in this constituency are 11,574.

In Jajarkot, which the Maoist Centre had been winning since 2064 BS, Congress reclaimed the legacy this time. Congress's Khadak Bahadur Buda won with 20,142 votes. His closest competitor, CPN's Shakti Bahadur Basnet, received 17,407 votes. CPN-UML's Dambar Bahadur Singh received 16,883 votes. The total votes secured by CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 34,290, which is more than that of the elected candidate.

In Dailekh-1, Congress's Basana Thapa won with 12,372 votes. Her closest competitor, CPN-UML's Rabindra Raj Sharma, received 11,796 votes. CPN's Ambar Bahadur Thapa, in fourth place, received 4,256 votes. The combined votes of CPN-UML and CPN candidates are 16,052. Statistics show that a leftist candidate would have been elected in this constituency if there had been a leftist alliance.

• Sudurpaschim Province

If a leftist alliance had been formed, the dominance of the leftist bloc would have been evident in Bajura, Achham-1, Doti, and Baitadi in Sudurpaschim Province. Out of a total of 16 constituencies here, CPN-UML won 3 seats, while CPN failed to win even one seat.

In Bajura, Congress's Janakraj Giri won with 17,173 votes. CPN-UML's Lalbahadur Thapa received 16,633 votes. CPN's Prakash Bahadur Shah, in fourth place, received 3,301 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates here are 19,934.

In Achham-1, Congress's Bharat Kumar Swar won with 10,759 votes. CPN's influential leader Dr. Bhim Bahadur Rawal received 10,233 votes. CPN-UML fielding Deepak Bahadur Saud, who has a Maoist background, seems to have dealt a blow to CPN. CPN's Saud received 7,359 votes. The total votes secured by leftist candidates are 17,592.

In Doti, Congress's Bharat Bahadur Khadka won with 14,897 votes. His competitor, CPN-UML's Deepak Bahadur Dhami, received 14,110 votes. CPN's Trilochan Bhatt, in fourth place, received 5,413 votes. The total votes of leftist candidates here are 19,523.

In Baitadi, RSP's Harimohan Bhandari won with 22,134 votes. His competitor, Congress's Chatur Bahadur Chand, received 18,194 votes. CPN-UML's Damodar Bhandari received 17,091 votes, while CPN's Pramananda Bhatt received 6,965 votes. The total votes secured by leftist party candidates here are 24,056.