West Asia Tensions Halt Foreign Employment for Thousands of Nepalis, Threatening Remittance-Based Economy

Kathmandu. The escalating war and tension in West Asia are beginning to directly impact Nepal's foreign employment sector. The tripartite conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran has affected international flights, and due to increased security risks, thousands of Nepali youths who had completed all procedures for foreign employment have been forced to remain in the country.

This has, on one hand, put the dreams of youths preparing to go abroad on 'hold,' and on the other hand, it is certain to deliver a major blow to Nepal's remittance-dependent economy. Clouds of crisis are currently hovering over Nepal's economy, which relies on the security situation of the millions of Nepalis in West Asia and the remittances they send home.

Under normal circumstances, more than 2,500 youths used to leave Nepal daily for foreign employment. However, due to the war in West Asia, foreign employment opportunities, especially in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman, have been affected. Manpower business owners state that more than 20,000 Nepalis who had completed all foreign employment procedures and were preparing to leave for various countries are currently stuck in Nepal.

According to them, the process for going for foreign employment to Gulf countries has almost come to a standstill. Explaining the current situation, business owners said, 'It is not appropriate to send workers immediately for security reasons. But many had completed all procedures and even received visas. Youths who took loans to go abroad are complaining that they are held back by the tension in West Asia, but sending them now is not feasible.'

Nepali workers preparing to go for foreign employment have been severely affected by the fear of war. Twenty thousand Nepali workers, who had completed all preparations and even held their visas, are currently unable to fly, causing their financial plans to be completely disrupted.

Former President of the Nepal Association of Foreign Employment Agencies (NAFEA), Rajendra Bhandari, stated that hundreds of Nepalis are losing employment opportunities daily due to the tension in West Asia. Statistics show that under normal conditions, about 350,000 Nepali workers go to Gulf countries annually, averaging about 25,000 per month and 800 to 900 Nepalis flying out of Tribhuvan International Airport daily.

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Analyzing the latest situation, Bhandari said, 'Even calculating at the rate of 800 people flying daily, between 18,000 to 20,000 people with visas have been unable to leave in the last 20 days. The war seems likely to prolong, and sending workers now is not possible due to security reasons. Viewed this way, 800 people are losing employment daily.'

According to him, although employing companies have not yet formally decided to terminate contracts and send workers back, Nepalis currently in destination countries are extremely frightened due to the war. Workers who had completed all preparations and even booked tickets are stuck in Nepal, adding a huge financial burden of interest and other expenses on them. Bhandari says, 'The situation is arising where those already there need to be rescued, while sending more people from here is out of the question. Many people are ready but are currently forced to remain on hold, deprived of going for foreign employment. This is not the time to think about sending people, but about rescue.'

Economist Keshav Acharya warns that the war and tension in West Asia will deliver a major shock to Nepal's foreign employment and economy. He analyzes that nearly 50 percent of Nepal's total incoming remittances come only from West Asian countries, and instability there could halt Nepal's daily income. According to Acharya, Nepal receives about 18 Kharba (1.8 trillion) rupees in remittances annually, which translates to 1 Kharba 50 Arab (150 billion) rupees per month and 5 billion rupees daily.

He states, '50 percent of remittances come only from the Gulf countries in West Asia, which means—if the war prolongs there, Nepal could lose 2.5 billion rupees daily.'

He added that if the war in West Asia escalates for a long time, the security and rescue of those workers will become a major headache for Nepal. Acharya further said, 'If the situation becomes dire and 1.7 to 1.8 million Nepalis have to be repatriated, the rescue cost alone could run into billions, which is beyond Nepal's current economic capacity.'

Acharya argues that a decrease in remittances will directly affect Nepal's domestic market. When the money received by the families of those employed abroad stops, the demand for food grains, clothing, and other luxury goods in the market will decrease. This is expected to slow down Nepal's domestic trade and circular economy, also impacting revenue collection. Similarly, labor migration expert Dr. Jeevan Baniya also stated that the tension in West Asia is shrinking employment opportunities for new entrants.

He noted that uncertainty has also arisen regarding the jobs of Nepalis working in Gulf countries, causing the entire foreign employment sector to falter. Baniya says, 'Due to the tension, workers face increased personal expenses if they cannot return on time, and there is uncertainty about whether the employer will arrange for the air ticket later. Air tickets might become more expensive later compared to now, placing an additional financial burden on the workers.'

The problem is not small for Nepalis wishing to return from conflict zones. The government has proposed an option for Nepalis in Kuwait and Qatar to return to Nepal via Saudi Arabia. With Saudi Arabian air routes remaining open, arrangements have been made for them to travel by road to Saudi Arabia from Kuwait and Qatar, and then return to Nepal by air. Nepali embassies in Kuwait and Qatar are arranging rescue by securing tourist visas for Nepalis through Saudi Arabia. For this, Nepalis have been called upon to obtain Saudi Arabian visas online.

The Nepali Embassy in Kuwait has stated that arrangements have been made for those with Kuwaiti residency or Civil ID who wish to return to Nepal to travel to Saudi Arabia by road. However, Nepalis wishing to return home accuse the government of charging exorbitant fees in the name of rescue, instead of rescuing them. They complain that while they have lost their jobs in a painful situation, the path opened by the government to return to Nepal comes at an extremely high cost.

The plight of Kapil Bhandari in Qatar is a vivid example of this. He went to Qatar for foreign employment nine months ago and is now compelled to return home due to the West Asia tension. He has registered online as per the government's instruction to return home, but he is facing problems due to the high fees. Bhandari expressed his anger, saying, 'When I don't even have money to eat, I cannot afford to pay such high fees to go to Nepal. Poor people earn 20-30 thousand rupees a month abroad, but now they have to pay a ticket cost of 110,000 rupees to return after paying 50,000 rupees to go? This is an attempt to loot in the name of rescue.'

Many complain about losing their jobs and being forced to bear expenses since the war began. Former President Bhandari also confirmed that it is difficult to find tickets to come to Nepal from countries like Qatar and Dubai, and tickets from Qatar Airways or Dubai are very expensive.

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1,729,288 Nepalis are currently employed in West Asian countries. Nepalis are spread across Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, and Egypt. Currently, there are only 6 Nepalis recorded in Iran. Since Iran continues its missile and drone attacks on US military camps in the Gulf countries, there are no signs of the conflict stopping soon.

Keeping this risk in mind, the government, through a ministerial decision on Falgun 17, suspended work permits for 11 countries including Gulf nations, Israel, and Turkey. However, later, considering the plight of workers who had come home on leave, work permits were reopened for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Oman, Yemen, Jordan, and Turkey. Nevertheless, work permits and renewals remain suspended for Iran, Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Lebanon.

Despite such great tension and uncertainty, the compulsion for Nepalis to seek foreign employment has not stopped. According to the Department of Foreign Employment data, 52,944 people received work permits and left for abroad in the month of Falgun alone. Viewed this way, the impact of West Asia has added a challenge for Nepal to manage thousands of youths stuck at home, while the state faces the serious responsibility of ensuring the security of more than 1.7 million Nepalis abroad and saving the country from a potential economic recession. This war in West Asia has emerged not just as a fight between two countries, but as a crisis linked to the future of Nepal's economy and millions of families.