Speculation Rises Over Coalition Shift in Karnali as Congress and CPN Leaders Meet

Surkhet. Discussions have begun regarding a potential shift in the ruling coalition in Karnali Province. For the past year and a half, the government has been operating under an alliance between the Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML. Now, talk has emerged of a new coalition forming between the Congress and the CPN (Maoist Centre).

Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, an influential leader of the CPN (Maoist Centre), arrived in Birendranagar while returning to Kathmandu after winning the House of Representatives election from Kalikot. It was during this occasion, through his interaction with Congress leaders, that this intense debate surfaced.

Mahendra Bahadur is the top leader of the CPN (Maoist Centre) in Karnali, and he is also a key player in the province's parliamentary politics. With Janardan Sharma having formed a separate party and Shakti Basnet having lost the election and being weak within the party, Mahendra Bahadur Shahi has emerged as the strong leader of the CPN (Maoist Centre) in Karnali.

Shahi not only has a strong presence in every political decision made in Karnali, but he has also played a role in resolving major political disputes. On Wednesday morning, under the pretext of congratulating him on his election victory, an important meeting took place between Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, the leader of the Nepali Congress Karnali Province Parliamentary Party, and CPN (Maoist Centre) leader Shahi.

Although photos of Jeevan Bahadur offering congratulations have surfaced, sources indicate that the meeting discussed the leadership of the Karnali government and the potential change in the ruling coalition. Mangal Bahadur Shahi, the leader of the CPN (Maoist Centre) Karnali Province Parliamentary Party, was also present at the meeting.

• New Coalition Discussed as Congress-UML 'Chemistry' Fails to Align

Since the formation of the Congress-UML coalition government, the 'chemistry' between the two parties has been poor.

On Chaitra 27, 080, Yamlal Kandel became the Chief Minister with the support of the former Maoist party. Around the same time, as the case in the Wide Body scandal progressed, Congress Parliamentary Party leader Jeevan Bahadur Shahi was suspended.

Three months later, in Shrawan 081, a power-sharing agreement was formed between the Congress and the UML at the federal level. Without the physical presence of Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, the Congress received responsibility for four ministries, including Finance, while Kandel of the UML continued as Chief Minister.

Nearly ten months later, Jeevan Bahadur Shahi returned to the province after being acquitted in the case. In the Provincial Assembly meeting held on Magh 7, 081, Shahi suddenly threatened to leave the government.

Shahi angrily stated in parliament: Jeevan not only speaks but also takes action.

He warned Chief Minister Kandel in a threatening tone: “Not picking up the phone of the leader of the largest party? If you don't sack the physical minister, we will not remain in the government. You all form a pure coalition, we will leave.”

Shahi even gave an ultimatum to leave the government within a week if his demands were not met. This series of threats did not stop.

On Falgun 13, 081, the Congress concluded that the Chief Minister's work and actions were 'unsatisfactory'. The Congress even discussed recalling its ministers.

On Falgun 28 of the same year, voices demanding withdrawal from the government echoed in the Provincial Assembly. The Congress did not hesitate to label the government it was part of as 'helpless'.

In Shrawan 082, during the budget discussion, Congress leader Shahi threatened the Chief Minister, saying, “This budget cannot pass,” even though the budget was presented by Rajeev Vikram Shah, who was the Finance Minister from his own party.

The situation became more interesting on Ashar 24, 082, when Congress lawmaker Bedraj Singh obstructed the assembly session. Even the opposition CPN (Maoist Centre) was surprised by such aggressive behavior from the ruling partner Congress. Although technically the opposition, the Congress appeared as the opposition in practice.

Chief Minister Kandel formed a study committee under the leadership of Congress Finance Minister Rajeev Vikram Shah to streamline the expensive structure. However, because Congress leader Shahi insisted on needing an 'expert team,' even the committee led by his own minister could not convene.

Later, Chief Minister Kandel formed a committee under the chairmanship of retired secretary Laxman Aryal, as per the Congress's demand. The committee submitted its report, which was also endorsed by the Council of Ministers.

Congress leader Shahi not only called the report a 'ultra-revolutionary document disguised as expert opinion' but also criticized it as a weapon to intimidate employees and stakeholders.

Ghanshyam Bhandari, the Social Development Minister from his own party, directly countered the Chief Minister, publicly warning that the report would under no circumstances be implemented.

Chief Minister Kandel became exasperated by the double standards of the Congress. While this continued, the 'Janji' agitation occurred on Bhadra 23 and 24 last year. The government has slowed down following the Janji revolt. Meanwhile, elections began. During this period, the Congress did not find it appropriate to seize power or raise significant questions against Kandel's government. However, widespread questions have arisen within the Congress parliamentary party regarding Chief Minister Kandel's public negative remarks about the Congress during the House of Representatives election campaign.

Chief Minister Kandel, during his election rallies, often brought up the context of the 049 election, commenting that Congress used to go to elections with 'gallons of liquor' instead of agendas, and that now only UML is on the streets while the other side captures the party—comments that the Congress disliked.

According to the central equation at that time, KP Oli was supposed to be Prime Minister for a year and a half, after which power would be transferred to Congress's Sher Bahadur Deuba. Power sharing in the province was also arranged accordingly.

There is no separate agreement regarding power sharing in the province. Even if the central equation from that time is considered, Karnali's Chief Minister should become Congress leader Jeevan Bahadur Shahi within this month. However, the 'chemistry' between the Congress and the UML does not seem to align in Karnali.

In this situation, the meeting and discussion between CPN (Maoist Centre) leader Shahi and Congress leader Shahi naturally sparked discussions about a coalition change.

Not only on Wednesday morning, but sources also reported that a long discussion took place at night at the residence of Finance Minister Rajeev Vikram Shah with a Congress team, which included the two former Chief Ministers and all current ministers from the Congress, as well as the Congress Provincial General Secretary.

Sources told Ratopati that discussions continued there until 12 AM. “There was some talk in the morning as well. Naturally, the subject was discussed in the evening too,” said a source close to Mahendra Bahadur Shahi. “Perhaps something new will happen in a week or a week and a half.”

According to the source, it cannot be ruled out that Congress leader Shahi could become Chief Minister within two weeks with the support of the CPN (Maoist Centre).

Mahendra and Jeevan had a power-sharing collaboration during the first term of the provincial government. Yamlal Kandel had repeatedly brought no-confidence motions against Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, who was Chief Minister with UML support. When Mahendra Bahadur's government faced a crisis, Jeevan Bahadur Shahi, the leader of the then opposition Congress parliamentary party, provided support. Because of this, Mahendra Bahadur's government survived, and Jeevan, who won only one seat in the direct election, got the opportunity to run the government for a year and a half.

Whereas, Kandel, a leader of the UML which won 20 seats in the first term, had his ambition to become Chief Minister unfulfilled.

The Congress-Maoist coalition went into the 079 elections. Prachanda himself had said he would make Jeevan the Chief Minister of Karnali, leading to the Maoist candidate Chhiring Damdul Lama getting the ticket in Humla, while Jeevan stayed in the province. However, amidst shifting coalitions, he did not get the chance to become Chief Minister for the second time.

Sources say that during the discussion between the two former Chief Ministers, it was discussed that if Yamlal Kandel does not relinquish leadership of the government, an alternative approach could be considered.

“The discussion was about what to do regarding the government and the coalition,” the source told Ratopati. “Mahendra Ji said, ‘It’s Jeevan Ji’s turn to become Chief Minister, become the Chief Minister.’”

Sources indicate that under the current coalition, the time has come for Yamlal to transfer power to Jeevan Bahadur Shahi. “If Yamlal doesn't step down, Jeevan will not support him for the full term,” the source added, quoting the discussion.

According to the source, in the current situation, Mahendra had spoken in a manner suggesting, “If the UML doesn't support us, the CPN (Maoist Centre) is there.” However, sources say that in the evening discussion, Jeevan Shahi was positive about the ease of forming a coalition with the CPN (Maoist Centre).

• What Congress and CPN (Maoist Centre) Lawmakers Say

Congress leader and Provincial Social Development Minister Ghanshyam Bhandari, who participated in the evening gathering, downplayed the meeting, stating it was merely a courtesy congratulatory visit at the Finance Minister's residence.

“It’s unlikely that the coalition will change right now,” he said. “Nothing of that sort happened; it was just about eating, drinking, and socializing.”

However, the meeting between the two former Chief Ministers had already taken place in the morning. On Thursday, before the Provincial Assembly meeting, when reporters asked Party Leader Shahi about the meeting with the two former Chief Ministers during the Congress Parliamentary Party meeting, the Party Leader called it a casual meeting.

CPN (Maoist Centre) Parliamentary Party Leader Mangal Bahadur Shahi and Chief Whip Krishna Bahadur GC stated that their party is not currently thinking about joining the government. “We are not thinking of joining the government right now,” GC said.

Shahi, however, stated that the formation of a new coalition depends more on the Congress than the CPN (Maoist Centre). “In that case, there is no situation where we need to take the initiative,” Shahi said.

• UML Says: We Should Not Suspect Their Meeting

Meanwhile, UML Parliamentary Party Chief Whip Tekraj Pachai stated that the UML is not viewing the meeting between the two former Chief Ministers with suspicion.

“We don't have to take seriously everything that comes out in the market. We are not paying attention to it,” he said. “There might be pictures of congratulations or socializing. We shouldn't suspect that.”

When asked if Kandel would transfer power according to the previous agreement, he became hesitant. “The situation has changed now; discussions might be ongoing among the top leaders of the ruling coalition parties about what to do,” he added.