Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Centre) Suffers Biggest Electoral Setback in 18 Years

Kathmandu. The main component of the Nepal Communist Party (formerly CPN-Maoist Centre) has suffered its biggest electoral setback in 18 years in the recent elections.

The party participated in the elections held on Falgun 21 after unifying with 25 components, including the CPN (Unified Socialist). However, looking at the final election results published by the Election Commission, the CPN (Maoist Centre) managed to win a total of 17 seats (8 directly elected and 9 through proportional representation).

Prachanda's party failed to retain its legacy seats in Rukum East, Rolpa, Kalikot, and Rukum West, which it won in the 2079 elections. In the previous election, it had won 18 seats through direct voting. This time, it won in the new constituencies of Dolpa, Salyan, Dhanusha-1, and Sindhupalchok-2. It faced defeat in Sindhupalchok-1, Gorkha-2, Sindhuli-2, and Jajarkot, which are considered Maoist strongholds. Including direct and proportional representation, the Maoists had 32 seats back then. In the 2079 elections, the Maoists secured 1,175,684 votes, or 11.13 percent, in proportional representation, but this time they received 811,577 votes, or 7.25 percent. In the previous election, they secured 11.63 percent of the vote in direct elections, which has now shrunk to 6.18 percent. In contrast, in the general election held in 2048 BS, the Maoists' then-open front, the United People's Front, secured 351,904 votes, or 15.21 percent. The Maoists won 9 direct seats, giving them a 4.39 percent seat share in parliament.

The Maoists launched an armed insurgency against the then-royal regime in 2052 BS against corruption, mismanagement, and all forms of discrimination in society. During the ten-year war, the Maoists had significant support from communities including farmers, workers, laborers, women, indigenous nationalities, Dalits, Muslims, Tharus, Madhesis, and minorities.

They raised the issues of nationalism, democracy, and people's livelihood. The Maoists, established in the heat of the People's War, signed the 12-point agreement with the then seven political parties in 2062 BS. Based on this, the People's Movement of 2062/63 ended the autocratic monarchy in Nepal. In the Constituent Assembly election held in 2064 BS, the rebel Maoists established themselves as the largest party.

The Federal Democratic Republic was established in 2065 BS. Prachanda became the first Prime Minister of the Republic of Nepal. During this 18-year period, Prachanda served as Prime Minister three times and Baburam Bhattarai once from the Maoist party. The Maoists, who once declared the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML as their primary enemies during the war, gained unpopularity among the general public and various communities by forming governments in alliance with them. The Maoists participated in the government in some capacity for 10 years and five months, while being in opposition in 2066, 2070, and 2081 BS.

Data shows that the Maoists, who received 38.10 percent of the vote in 2064 BS, have been losing public support in every subsequent election. After unifying with the CPN Unity Centre-Masal in 2065 BS, the Maoists' vote percentage in parliament reached 39.60 percent. At that time, the Maoists secured 3,144,204 votes, or 29.28 percent, in proportional representation.

In the second Constituent Assembly election of 2070 BS, their seat share dropped to 13.81 percent. Winning 83 seats out of the 601-member Constituent Assembly, the Maoists were relegated to third place, securing 1,609,145 votes, or 15.21 percent, in proportional representation.

Even after participating in the 2074 elections in an alliance with the CPN-UML, the largest leftist party, they could not achieve a significant increase in votes. In the 275-member House of Representatives, the Maoists won only 53 seats, representing 19.27 percent. Their proportional vote share shrank to 1,303,721 votes, or 13.66 percent.

In the 2079 elections, they contested in an alliance with the Nepali Congress. While the Congress benefited from the alliance, the Maoists could not increase their vote share significantly. They won 32 seats, representing 11.63 percent, remaining in third place with 1,175,684 votes, or 11.13 percent, in proportional representation.

Despite being the third party, Prachanda led the government for nearly 18 months, sometimes aligning with the Congress and sometimes with the UML, calling the '32' figure a magic number. After the Congress and UML formed a coalition government on Ashar 31, 2081 BS, the Maoists moved to the opposition after 12 years.

The Maoists were also targeted during the Jyanji rebellion in Bhadra. Angry protestors destroyed the homes and party offices of Prachanda and other senior leaders. Riding the momentum of the Jyanji rebellion, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki became the interim Prime Minister on Bhadra 27. When the Karki government dissolved parliament and announced elections for Falgun 21, the current CPN (Maoist Centre) was the most supportive.

The internal assessment, which predicted that the Congress and UML would be swept away and the CPN (Maoist Centre) would establish itself as a decisive force due to the killing of 23 Jyanji members and the failure to protect important state assets, failed. This failure closed the path to power for the next five years. This time, not only the public mandate but also the magic number did not support Prachanda. The CPN (Maoist Centre), which has been in third place since 2070 BS, has now dropped to fourth place.