Nepali Parliament Set to Shrink as Election Results Point to Consolidation Among Major Parties

Kathmandu. As the final results of the recently concluded elections are being finalized, the representation of various parties in the new House of Representatives appears to be drastically reduced. Trends from the counting of votes in both the first-past-the-post and proportional representation categories suggest that the number of parties in the upcoming parliament is almost certain to be halved.

The House of Representatives emerging from this election is expected to feature only six parties. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is set to emerge as the leading party with nearly a two-thirds majority, while the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Centre), Shram Sanskriti Party, and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) are the only others expected to maintain a presence.

The House of Representatives formed after the 2079 elections had representation from 12 parties, including the Congress, UML, Maoist Centre, RSP, RPP, Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, Unified Socialist, Janamat Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party (NUP), Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), Nepal Workers and Peasants Party (NWPP), and Rastriya Janamorcha. However, this time, voters seem to have sidelined smaller and regional parties, endorsing only the main power blocs.

How Were Parties Defeated?

The number of parties that were in parliament previously but have now lost their standing has reached eight. These departing parties include the Maoist Centre, JSP Nepal, Janamat, Unified Socialist, Nagarik Unmukti Party, Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, and Rastriya Janamorcha. Although the CPN, formed by the merger of the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialist, has secured representation, all other listed parties have been swept away.

The situation for Madhes-centric political parties appears dire. Despite the merger between Upendra Yadav-led JSP Nepal and Mahantha Thakur-led Lospa, the unified party failed to win even a single seat in the parliament.  

Similarly, the Janamat Party, led by Dr. CK Raut, which emerged as an alternative regional force in the previous election, has been swept away by the RSP wave this time. Janamat, which contested alone, failed to maintain its lead in any constituency.

The NWPP and Janamorcha, which have maintained their strongholds for years, have also seen their demise this time. The NWPP candidate, continuously elected from Bhaktapur-1, and the Janamorcha candidate from Baglung-2, appeared vulnerable against the new influence of the RSP. It seems voters in those respective areas sought an alternative to these parties that often appeared as perennial opposition.

Those Who Had Potential But Failed to Emerge

In this election, some new faces and parties generated significant hope. However, these parties failed to reach parliament due to various technical and strategic reasons. Ujyalo Nepal Party (UNEP), Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party (PrLOPA), Gatisheel Loktantrik Party (GLOPA), CPN United, and CPN Maoist failed to secure representation in the parliament this time.

The Ujyalo Nepal Party, led by Kulman Ghising, who received much credit for ending load-shedding, was expected to garner significant public support. However, due to a strained unity effort with the RSP and confusion over its election symbol, this party could not secure a presence in parliament.

This party, which postponed its proportional representation list at the last moment for unity efforts, later offered the 'flute' symbol for the PR category. However, the party failed to secure any significant victory.

Likewise, PrLOPA, formed under the leadership of Dr. Baburam Bhattarai and Janardan Sharma, did not perform well in either the first-past-the-post or proportional representation categories. The party's journey to parliament was halted when it failed to win a seat in Rukum West, considered Sharma's stronghold.

On the other hand, CPN Maoist, led by Netra Bikram Chand 'Biplav', which entered the parliamentary contest for the first time after abandoning underground politics, failed to gain the trust of the people. The dream of this party's rise remained unfulfilled after Khadga Bahadur Bishwakarma, who was considered to have a strong chance in Kalikot, was defeated. CPN United, led by Ghanashyam Bhusal after splitting from the Unified Socialist, also failed to create any magic.

The Forceful Rise of Shram Sanskriti Party 

The most significant and forceful emergence in this election belongs to the Shram Sanskriti Party led by Hark Sampang. Despite the nationwide wave of the RSP and the influence of the Congress-UML, Sampang's party succeeded in establishing itself. 

The Shram Sanskriti Party won three seats in the first-past-the-post category, including Sunsari-1, Bhojpur, and Khotang. Analyzing the votes received by the party in various constituencies across the country, it has a strong possibility of crossing the 3 percent 'threshold' in the proportional representation category to become a national party.

The presence of this party, which emerged with the agenda of labor without large resources, is being viewed with great importance, especially as established parties like Congress and UML are shrinking to 30-35 seats.

The RPP, which won one seat from Jumla, secured its presence in parliament, but it is uncertain whether it will cross the threshold in the proportional representation category. If it crosses the three percent threshold, all parties remaining in the upcoming parliament will become national parties. 

Mahabir Pun was elected as the only independent candidate from Myagdi in this election. This result signals a crisis for regionalist parties and politics centered around strongholds that have persisted for a long time.