Upcoming House of Representatives Election Becomes Litmus Test for Parties Amid Shifting Political Landscape and Youth Discontent

The House of Representatives election scheduled for Falgun 21 is not merely a routine periodic election for Nepali politics; it has become a trial by fire for the agendas, leadership, and very existence of the political parties. While the contest for power remains, the political landscape appears significantly different at the psychological level compared to past elections. In previous polls, parties centered on core political issues like federalism, institutionalization of the republic, constitution implementation, and inclusivity. This time, however, most parties seem focused on agendas related to development, infrastructure, employment, and service delivery, mirroring the style of local level elections.

This shift is meaningful in itself. On one hand, it signals a weakening of the political agenda, and on the other, it reflects the reality that public priorities have changed. Specifically, youth dissatisfaction, interpreted as a 'Gen Z rebellion,' has forced parties to alter their narratives. This time, all parties feel the pressure to present results-oriented programs rather than traditional slogans.

The biggest psychological aspect of this election is the dissatisfaction of the Gen Z generation. The anger expressed through social media, distrust in established leadership, and the demand for an alternative political culture have shaken the confidence of the older parties.

Examining the manifestos clearly shows a reflection of much fear and little hope. Promises such as taking strict action against corruption, bringing youth into leadership, transparency, and digital governance are all attempts to address Gen Z. However, they do not show a complete break from the old political culture.

Even the so-called new parties are not immune to this sentiment. Although they use the spirit of the Gen Z rebellion in their slogans, their failure to directly include rebellious youth in leadership positions makes them appear like 'show teeth' for the elephant. The old style is repeating itself in terms of structure and leadership.

Among the older parties, the Nepali Congress, which was a partner in the government during the Gen Z movement and the largest party in the then House of Representatives, appears focused on new leadership following its General Convention. The Congress, which formally signaled generational transition and organizational restructuring, is attempting to revitalize itself.

In particular, the activism of President Gagan Thapa seems to have added energy within the Congress. Thapa is striving to bring Congress back to its old democratic legacy by building a youth-friendly image. Efforts are underway to re-establish Congress ideologically through the narrative of policy, good governance, and institutional reform. Factional competition, some dissatisfaction over ticket distribution, and incompleteness in leadership transition have become challenges for the Congress. Although it has shown sympathy towards the Gen Z rebellion, the Congress has yet to show the courage to fully embrace it.

The CPN-UML, which led the government before the Gen Z movement, appears defensive this time. Analyses suggest that Chairman KP Sharma Oli's arrogance, pride, and centralized decision-making process have challenged the party internally and externally in the election. The trend of people leaving the party across the country is increasing due to the refusal to give tickets to his critics and the protection of only his faction.

Oli's constituency-centric campaigning seems to have affected the national campaign. As he focuses on Jhapa-5, the nationwide campaign has not been effective. The UML has failed to present a strong alternative vision beyond dualistic slogans like "Who to vote for, those who build the nation or those who burn it?" Nevertheless, its past stance on nationalism has provided some relief.

Furthermore, completely rejecting the Gen Z rebellion and labeling it as 'anarchic' or a tendency to 'burn the country' increases the risk of losing the support of young voters. The failure to address youth anger could become a long-term challenge for the UML.

The Communist Party of Nepal, formed by the continuation of the Maoist stream—a major stakeholder in the campaign for the establishment of the republic—and comprising over two dozen communist factions and groups, appears to be entering the field this time comparatively stronger, united, and with a political agenda. Under the leadership of Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda,' the party has made national independence, protection and implementation of the constitution, good governance, and increasing production and productivity leading to prosperity its main issues.

Although criticized on the agenda of leadership transition, the party has attempted to send a positive message by fielding established leaders from youth and social sectors as candidates. Having previously contested in limited areas due to alliances, the party is moving forward with confidence of increasing votes and achieving good results by fielding single candidates in 164 locations this time; however, challenging the narrative that all old parties and leaders are the same remains a challenge for them. Nevertheless, its respectful stance towards the Gen Z rebellion from the beginning suggests a possibility of attracting youth votes. Its strategy of expanding influence in the capital and across the country seems to have provided relief in the competition.

Overall, the House of Representatives election on Falgun 21 is a decisive moment of life and death for the parties. It is a test for the Congress to stabilize its new leadership, a challenge for the UML for self-criticism and restructuring, an opportunity for the Prachanda-led CPN to prove itself as an alternative political force, and a crucible for the RSP to prove its 'newness.'

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has presented itself as a new political alternative. However, the fact that it has already participated in Parliament and government raises questions about its claim of being 'completely new.' Allegations against the leadership, including cooperative fraud, legal entanglements, discussions of money laundering in candidate selection, and criminal charges against some candidates, have drawn criticism at the public level.

The RSP is attempting to attract voters through celebrity candidates and an alternative image. Looking at the manifesto of the RSP, which is campaigning calling for a two-thirds majority, it presents varied development plans specific to provinces and districts rather than a clear political ideological framework.

Although it shows influence among Gen Z voters, questions remain about its long-term stability due to the lack of a concrete ideological foundation. The dissolution of the unity with Kulman Ghising and the recent departure of central and provincial level cadres raise challenges in maintaining trust.

Other smaller parties and Madhesi parties are also facing the challenge of losing their legacy due to their failure to present clear political agendas and distinct visions for leadership, and the lack of attraction for the new youth. The RPP, which has come forward with an agenda including the restoration of the monarchy, is in a race to maintain its existence.

Overall, the House of Representatives election on Falgun 21 is a decisive moment of life and death for the parties. It is a test for the Congress to stabilize its new leadership, a challenge for the UML for self-criticism and restructuring, an opportunity for the Prachanda-led CPN to prove itself as an alternative political force, and a crucible for the RSP to prove its 'newness.'

In the periodic elections held after the promulgation of the new constitution in B.S. 2072, major political parties formed alliances and coalitions to come to power. This time, the act of forming alliances with those whose principles and ideologies do not align, just to gain power or influence the election, will not happen. This will clearly show the real standing of the parties in this election. The general voters will be able to vote for the candidate of the party they prefer. In the past, there was a state of dissatisfaction because voters could not vote for the party and candidate they chose and sought. With voters now able to cast their vote for the candidate of their desired party based on their conscience, a new enthusiasm has been added. Since this election will test the organizational strength and public trust of all parties, there is a need to work very hard to win the trust of the general voters.

This election will not only determine the arithmetic of the parliament; it will also determine the future of generational transition, ideological clarity, and democratic culture in Nepali politics. Amid fear, hope, anger, and expectation, Nepali voters are finally at the moment of decision on whom to trust. Voters must not lose their conscience at this time. To prevent the recurrence of murder and destruction and to institutionalize the democratic republic, a single vote can be decisive at this time. Therefore, it is imperative that voters pause and think carefully before casting their vote for the right party and candidate.

Falgun 21, in that sense, is a trial by fire not only for the parties but also for the voters and the entire democratic journey. (RSS)