Analysis: Percentage of Votes Needed for a Single Party to Secure Majority in Nepal's Mixed Electoral System

Nepal's parliamentary system has 275 seats, comprising 110 under the Proportional Representation (PR) system and 165 under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system. To secure a 50 percent majority in parliament, the FPTP and PR seats are combined. Analyzing the eight general elections from B.S. 015 to 079, the leading party has never secured more than 39.5 percent of the total votes.

In B.S. 048, the Nepali Congress secured the highest FPTP vote share at 39.5 percent, managing to win 53.6 percent (110 seats) of the total 205 House of Representatives seats at that time.

However, in B.S. 015, Congress, despite securing a lower FPTP vote share of 37.2 percent, managed to win 67.9 percent (74 seats) of the then 109 House of Representatives seats. All these factors appear to be influenced by the impact of the second, third, and other smaller parties, as well as the number of independents.

Furthermore, alliances can significantly impact election results. Therefore, if FPTP and PR votes are assumed to come in equal proportions, it appears difficult for parties to secure 50 percent of the seats through the PR system alone.

However, some electoral rules suggest that securing a total of 50 percent of the seats is possible. Parties securing less than 3 percent of the PR votes are not counted. In the last eight general elections, parties collectively accounted for about 9 percent of the average votes cast, which is less than the 3 percent threshold in FPTP.

In the B.S. 070 general election, parties securing less than 3 percent of the votes accounted for the highest share at 20 percent. With 44 parties participating in that election, it was the fourth largest general election based on the number of participating parties.

In B.S. 064, when a record 135 parties participated, those securing less than 3 percent accounted for only 12 percent of the votes utilized. Similarly, independent candidates account for an average of 5 percent of the votes in general elections.

The upcoming general election on Falgun 21 mandates securing a majority (50 percent) to deliver a decisive result. It is almost impossible to achieve 50-50 percent of votes in FPTP and PR for this purpose. This is because, in the words of the current President Ram Chandra Paudel, there is little chance of a decline in the 'traditional' party loyalty among the Nepali people.

However, securing exactly 50 percent of the votes is not necessary to form a majority. For this, we analyzed the FPTP votes from the last eight general elections. And, we further analyzed assuming the initial PR votes would be in the same proportion as the FPTP votes.

To estimate the actual PR votes, we excluded the votes for parties securing less than 3 percent and the votes for independents from the total countable votes. We excluded the votes of independents because, due to the large number of independent candidates, the PR reach of voters supporting independents gets dispersed.

Using the linear regression method, considered the simplest for calculating only FPTP results, it appears that 32.9 percent of the vote is required to secure 50 percent of the seats. After removing the votes for parties with less than 3 percent (8.8 percent) and independents (4.8 percent), this percentage corresponds to a proportional contribution of about 38 percent of the 32.9 percent vote. This is seen to only contribute 42 seats (38 percent) out of the total 110 PR seats.

Combining both, this shows only up to 125 seats (45 percent) out of the total 275 seats by adding 42 to 82.5 percent. Therefore, by converting the FPTP votes from those eight general elections into proportional contributions for FPTP and PR (in the same ratio) and applying linear regression, our study estimates that 37.5 percent of the vote is required to secure 50 percent of the total 275 seats.

According to the regression equation, 37.5 percent of the vote in FPTP alone helps secure 57 percent, or 94 seats, out of 165 seats, while there is a possibility of getting the remaining 44 seats from PR (totaling 138 seats or 50.2 percent by adding 44 to 94).

The current situation suggests that despite minor disruptions, the election on Falgun 21 is likely to take place. The public expects the government formed after the election to bring extensive and significant reforms to people's lifestyles and the rule-of-law-based governance system.

To achieve this, they desire the formation of a strong and effective government. However, no single party has achieved a clear majority on its own under the mixed electoral system, including PR, which came into use after the 062/063 popular movement. Consequently, no coalition government has completed its full term.

There is a public perception that a stable and strong government is formed when a single major party has a clear majority in parliament. In Nepal, for a single party to achieve a parliamentary majority, the party must win not only FPTP votes but also PR votes. Therefore, as analysts, we were curious about the percentage of votes parties need to secure a majority.

In this article, we present an estimation of the vote percentage required for a single party to achieve a majority based on the statistics from past general elections.

Our study found that any party aspiring for a majority in Nepal needs to secure votes from approximately 4 out of every 10 voters on election day. However, as before, almost all parties are likely to struggle to achieve this target because their presence, popularity, and practice are not sufficient in almost all parts of Nepal.

To address this limitation, parties need to effectively mobilize their strategies, public campaigns, and resources.