Morang-4: Shifting Voter Sentiment and Fierce Competition Define Election Battleground

Gramthan, Morang. Morang-4, which encompasses the heart of Koshi Province's capital, Biratnagar, and its surrounding rural areas, is currently experiencing intense electoral fervor. The changing political colors of this constituency are clearly illustrated by the analysis of local resident Saroj Kumar Mandal, met at a tea stall in Milan Chowk, Ward No. 19 of Biratnagar Metropolitan City. Mandal, who retired after serving 28 years as an officer at the Agriculture Office, takes a 'morning walk' at this junction every morning and converses with locals. Based on his long experience and the public sentiment observed locally, he stated that this election will not be as straightforward as previous ones.

According to Mandal, voters are highly conscious this time, scrutinizing candidates' agendas and capabilities rather than focusing solely on the big names from major parties. 'I have now visited almost every location in this area. Although there is talk of a heavyweight clash in the electoral field here this time, at the grassroots level, I have found intense public dissatisfaction and a vigorous search for new alternatives,' says Mandal.

Mandal believes there will be a tough competition primarily among four candidates here. Gururaj Ghimire, an influential leader and General Secretary from the Nepali Congress, is in the electoral field, while the CPN-UML has fielded former minister Jivan Ghimire. Similarly, former minister Amanlal Modi is a strong contender from the CPN (Maoist Centre). Furthermore, Santosh Rajbanshi from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has entered the fray leading a new wave.

'The Labour Culture Party, whose election symbol is 'Soil' (Maato), is also not insignificant here,' Mandal adds.

The electoral atmosphere suggests that parties are struggling to maintain their legacy here.

Ratopati's team observed highly fluctuating public opinion within the Congress in this constituency. In the initial days, even staunch Congress supporters were talking about the 'Bell' (RSP symbol), but after Gagan Thapa became the President at the center, a new enthusiasm has been injected into the Congress circle. Many voters are now beginning to see Congress as a 'changed Congress.' However, we did not find much personal discussion about candidate Ghimire in the area.

According to local businessman Shiromani Majhi, many people are thinking of voting for Congress due to the name of Gagan Thapa and the party's new policies. But Ghimire still needs to work harder to expand his personal influence. He notes that this election will be a difficult test for Congress to regain its old prestige and convert the party's new energy into votes.

The incumbent MP and former minister Amanlal Modi is another powerful competitor in this area. Modi's main stronghold is considered to be Gramthan Rural Municipality, where his past work and his ethnic 'cluster' vote are a major base.

When Ratopati's team reached Gramthan, they found a strong influence of Modi among the Tharu community. However, this time, the RSP's Santosh Rajbanshi and 'Maato' are causing him concern. How much these new forces weaken Modi's unilateral influence in Gramthan will be the main key to his victory or defeat.

Local teacher Tilak Ram Majhi states that CPN-UML and Congress will face significant difficulty in securing votes from Gramthan this time.

The influence of the RSP, which is emerging as a decisive force in the election, is strongly visible in Morang-4. According to Saroj Adhikari, proprietor of Adhikari Suppliers, until a few weeks ago, the atmosphere suggested the RSP might win, but he has seen a slight decline in that craze recently. Nevertheless, he still considers RSP's Rajbanshi to be among the main competitors. Especially for young voters and those disappointed with traditional parties, the 'Bell' has become a source of hope. Adhikari adds that the RSP is also attracting a large segment of silent voters.

CPN-UML is a very strong party organizationally here. But this time, we observed that CPN-UML's Ghimire will not have it easy. Amidst questions being raised about CPN-UML nationwide, the party is also facing difficulties in this constituency. Ghimire is a former minister. He is striving to bridge the gap between the work done during his tenure and the expectations of the locals. While he can secure organizational votes, he is failing to appease independent and new voters.

What was the Electoral Math?

Comparing the electoral math with the 2079 (Bikram Sambat) election results, the situation this time is quite different. In the previous election, Amanlal Modi won by securing 30,612 votes as the joint candidate of the Left-Democratic Alliance. However, that victory was largely due to the votes of Congress and other parties rather than his personal strength.

In proportional representation, Congress was first with 19,555 votes, and CPN-UML was second with 18,386 votes. Modi's party, CPN (Maoist Centre), was limited to only 9,760 votes. Although the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialist have now merged to form the CPN (Maoist Centre), the broken alliance with Congress makes Modi's path less smooth than last time. Since Congress has fielded its own General Secretary Ghimire, the Congress votes that went to Modi last time are certain to return to their own candidate this time.

Balen and Hark Factor

The Balen and Hark factor also appears set to influence the election results in this constituency. The more than 7,000 votes secured by the RSP in proportional representation in the previous election and about one thousand votes from the 'Lauro' (stick) campaign are now expected to consolidate in favor of the RSP. According to Subodh Acharya, a lawyer in Biratnagar, the activism of Balen Shah in the neighboring district and the nationwide attraction towards the RSP have influenced voters here. Many voters are saying they will vote for the Bell, even if they do not personally know the candidate.

Voters' Grievances Dominate

Phulkumari from Biratnagar voiced her complaint that leaders only visit her Musahar settlement during elections and never solve the housing and road problems of the poor. She said, 'Leaders come, give assurances, but nothing has changed in our settlement except eating dust.' Locals in Gramthan need real workers who can solve problems related to roads, health, and drinking water, rather than focusing on parties. Anjana Mandal also mentions that facilities coming to the rural municipality are only accessible to the influential, and they are not even informed.

Buddha Narayan Khas and Deepak Rajbanshi from Khas Tol, Biratnagar-19, express similar frustration. According to Khas, the budget for the Baijnathpur stadium was frozen multiple times, and road construction has been pending for years. He noted that dissatisfaction with elected representatives has increased because of this. He pointed to the untimely supply of fertilizer and rising unemployment as the main problems here.

'The main problem here is the stadium. How many times has the budget come, but it got frozen, nobody did the work. Even though Amanlal Modi won from here twice, he did not build the road from Milan Chowk to Maheshpur. Farmers do not get fertilizer during the farming season. What good is 10-15 kg of fertilizer?' Khas complained.

Rajbanshi stated that the younger generation will no longer vote based solely on the 'heavyweight' tag and will look at the candidate's vision and action plan.

Voters in Morang-4 are demanding development and infrastructure. They also mentioned that flooding is a problem here. Bishwakant Dahal Keshaliya, a leader from Biratnagar-3, says that constructing embankments along the Kesaliya and Singhiya rivers should be prioritized. He noted that the Biratnagar Ring Road, the incomplete stadium, and the slum dwellers' issue are permanent electoral issues here. The slum dwellers also stated that discussing other development issues is futile until the guarantee of their residence is secured.