Xi Jinping's Military Purge Could Unintentionally Hamper China's Operational Capabilities, New Report Warns

Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently spearheading a sweeping anti-corruption campaign within the military, with several top-ranking officers recently facing disciplinary action. Amidst this crackdown, a new report warns that Xi's campaign could have an unexpected impact on China's military operational capacity.

According to a report released Tuesday by the Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), more than 100 Chinese military officials have been removed or gone missing since 2022.

The report indicates that at least 36 generals and lieutenant generals in China have been formally purged, while an additional 65 officials are missing or potentially under investigation. Analysts suggest this has sent deep tremors through the leadership structure of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Since taking power in 2012, Xi Jinping has prioritized controlling corruption within the military.

He has adopted a strategy of accelerating military modernization while simultaneously strengthening his political control. However, the latest wave of purges is reported to have affected personnel across the ranks, not just at the top.

The report suggests that Xi's actions have directly or indirectly impacted approximately 52 percent of the 176 top leadership positions within the PLA. M. Taylor Fravel, director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), described this as an extremely unusual leadership turnover.

According to him, this level of high-level leadership change could introduce challenges to military stability. Some of those recently targeted were officials considered close to Xi or those he had previously promoted. Due to the opaque structure of the PLA, the exact reasons for the actions, often cited vaguely as violations of discipline and law in official Chinese information, are not publicly clear.

Another significant risk highlighted by the report is a lack of experience. With a large number of senior officers removed, there is an increased probability that new leaders will have limited command experience and little to no actual combat experience. Analysis suggests that the ability to conduct complex military operations could be weakened under such circumstances.

The pool of officers capable of leading any of the five theater commands has also diminished. According to the report, after 56 deputy theater commanders were removed, the scope for potential replacements has shrunk by more than 33 percent. This suggests that leadership succession could become complicated in an emergency.

CSIS analyst Bonny Lin also indicated signs that the PLA's readiness is being affected following Xi's actions. She noted that a military exercise China conducted around Taiwan in 2025 took significantly longer to implement compared to a similar exercise in 2024, which only took 4 days to initiate.

This is suggested to indicate potential delays in decision-making or coordination. The report paid special attention to the context of a potential conflict with Taiwan. China considers Taiwan its territory and has repeatedly warned it would not hesitate to use force if necessary. However, the report suggests that the capacity to conduct a planned invasion of Taiwan in the near future could be called into question following the major shake-up in top leadership.

Nevertheless, the report does not deem the PLA weak. Analysts suggest that China remains capable of employing powerful military options. Specifically, it is noted that China could easily conduct less complex operations such as a blockade, pressure campaign, or limited military action against Taiwan.

John Culver, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, stated that Xi's distrust of his own military might offer some defensive advantage to the US and Taiwan. However, he cautioned that vigilance is necessary as China still possesses substantial capabilities.

Another risk mentioned in the report is the possibility that truthful information may not reach the decision-making process. Newly promoted officials, fearing the same fate as their predecessors, might refrain from relaying negative information up to the top leadership.

In such a scenario, the danger is that Xi Jinping could become overly confident about the military's actual capabilities, potentially making crisis management even riskier. Some experts argue that Xi views the current period as an opportune time to 'clean house.' According to this view, China might be attempting to strengthen its internal structure while US attention is focused on other parts of the world.

The long-term picture might be different, according to Joel Wuthnow, a co-author of the report. By the end of this decade, as a new generation of officers gains sufficient practice and experience with modern Chinese weapons systems, the PLA's confidence and capability could strengthen again.

Overall, however, President Xi's extensive military purges signal instability in China's military leadership and challenges to operational capacity in the short term. But analysts conclude that China's military strength could be consolidated again once the new leadership matures in the long run.