CPN-UML Shifts Campaign Strategy, Omitting KP Sharma Oli's Image from Election Materials Amidst Political Scrutiny

Kathmandu. Since KP Sharma Oli first took the leadership of CPN-UML, his picture has never been missing from the banners or posters of every small or large gathering, assembly, or other event organized by the party. It can even be said that during the two election campaigns after 2074 BS, UML and its candidates did not omit Oli's picture on promotional materials. While UML members who never left out Oli's picture when filing candidacies for those elections are now seen seeking votes without branding Oli, they have changed their election strategy this time.

Moreover, UML does not seem interested in organizing large assemblies targeting the House of Representatives election scheduled for Falgun 21, 2082 BS. Not only has UML refrained from holding large election rallies and gatherings, but the political significance of UML and its candidates not using election promotional materials featuring Oli's picture in the 2082 election is being viewed meaningfully.

Some believe that UML candidates are refraining from creating and campaigning with promotional materials bearing Oli's picture out of fear that votes might decrease in the election being held under special circumstances following the J&J movement. However, UML leaders claim that this suspicion is untrue. Oli, who was the Prime Minister during the J&J movement, was forced to flee from Baluwatar by helicopter on Bhadra 24. It is alleged that 22 people died from firing ordered by Prime Minister Oli during the agitation on Bhadra 23.

After the shooting incident, there were calls for Oli's arrest, holding him responsible for the incident, and voices within the party demanded that he resign from his post. However, three months after the J&J movement, Oli was re-elected as the leader of CPN-UML after holding a general convention. Although a probe commission led by Gauribahadur Karki was formed to investigate the J&J incident, the commission's report has not yet been prepared.

After the movement, the government led by Sushila Karki dissolved parliament and set the election date for Falgun 21. UML has put forward Chairman Oli as the next Prime Minister after this election, similar to the Nepali Congress and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). Oli himself is a candidate for the House of Representatives from Jhapa-5. Balen Shah, whom RSP has put forward as the next Prime Minister, is competing against Oli in Jhapa-5, where Oli has historically won elections. It is being analyzed that Balen could pose a significant challenge to Oli in this election.

Why have UML and its candidates stepped back when Nepali Congress is branding Gagan Thapa as Prime Minister and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is branding senior leader Balendra Shah (Balen) as Prime Minister, similar to UML? Even UML leaders are unable to provide a clear answer.

Both Congress and RSP are campaigning by displaying promotional materials featuring the pictures of Gagan and Shah in their assemblies, gatherings, and candidate promotions.

However, Oli appears 'missing' from the promotional materials created by almost all UML candidates.

It is widely speculated that the main reason leaders and candidates, who praised Oli until the J&J movement and the 11th National General Convention of UML held in Poush, dared not include Oli's picture in election campaign materials is the fear of losing votes, as suspected.

UML Vice Chairman Bishnu Paudel, Vice Chairman Prithvi Subba Gurung, Gokul Bista, General Secretary Shankar Pokharel, Secretary Mahesh Basnet, and leader Surya Thapa have not included Oli's picture (image) in their campaign materials.

"Oli has been removed from the campaign materials of UML candidates this time," one UML candidate told Ratopati in an informal conversation, "It might be because they don't want to lose the votes they might receive!"

Analysts believe that candidates could not carry Oli because of the understanding that including him in promotional materials might lead to the loss of remaining votes, as the J&J movement was deemed a counter-revolution by Oli, and the public sentiment was diverting towards other parties.

Political analyst Mumaram Khanal argues that candidates are not including Oli's picture because they understand that it could decrease votes, as Oli is the main accused in the J&J movement, and that this is why large assemblies are also being held without his participation.

"It might have been done because they didn't want to do something that would reduce votes," Khanal stated. "Compared to previous elections, UML has become the most defensive force in this election. This is because the J&J movement happened during KP Sharma Oli's tenure, and the political circle holds Oli primarily responsible for the repression during the agitation on Bhadra 23," analyst Khanal told Ratopati. "Therefore, perhaps UML felt that mentioning Oli's name might not increase votes."

He also mentioned that this is why the issue of leadership change was raised within UML. "But that did not happen. We heard some leaders from Congress also saying that if the old leadership were in place, we wouldn't be able to ask for votes," he said. "It must be a change in strategy because they understood that campaigning with Oli's image would not increase votes."

However, UML Central Committee member and Election Press Coordinator Min Bahadur Shahi claims that the argument that Oli's picture is not being included in election campaign materials because it would reduce votes is wrong.

He also states that UML's strategy this time is focused more on 'action where the constituency is' rather than holding large assemblies.

"There is time until the 18th to hold assemblies. There is also discussion about holding some large election rallies in certain areas. But this time, our emphasis is more on 'action where the constituency is'," Shahi told Ratopati. "We intended to create an election calendar, but we couldn't due to lack of time."

He dismissed the allegation that Oli's picture is not being included in campaign materials because it would reduce votes as an accusation made only by opponents, calling such an argument sophistry.

"That is sophistry. Election campaigning must be done keeping the election code of conduct in mind. That applies more to the candidates and the party," Coordinator Shahi said. "Some candidates might have included the Chairman's picture, but I haven't seen everywhere."

UML leader and candidate from Sindhupalchok Constituency No. 2, Sher Bahadur Tamang, states that the trend of election campaigning has changed this time compared to the past.

Tamang explained that because the election code of conduct must be followed, activities like pasting posters or distributing leaflets on roads or in public places are not allowed, and he is conducting campaign work through social media while adhering to the code of conduct.

"Our party candidates have made promotional materials bearing the Chairman's picture," he said. "Fundamentally, the Chairman himself is the poster. His name is enough. Whether a photo is pasted or not does not matter."

Leader Tamang claims that Oli's picture is pasted in the hearts and minds of the nation and the people. "There is no truth in the propaganda that votes will decrease if the Chairman's picture is included in election materials when the picture of Oli is already pasted in the hearts of the nation and the Nepali people. He is the Chairman of CPN-UML and he will be the next Prime Minister," Tamang asserted.