Manang's Electoral History: A District Whose Winner Often Predicts the Nation's Leading Party Faces Unprecedented Alliance in Upcoming Polls

Pokhara. Less than 24 hours after the voting concluded in the 2079 general elections, the remote district of Manang announced its result—“Tek Bahadur Gurung of the Nepali Congress is victorious.” In that election, the Congress emerged as the leading party nationwide. He was elected after defeating Polden Chhopang Gurung of CPN-UML, which finished as the second-largest party.

Exactly five years prior, in the 2074 elections, the first results from across the country also came from Manang. Polden Chhopang Gurung, the candidate from the then Nepal Communist Party (NCP), had won the election by defeating Tek Bahadur Gurung of the Nepali Congress. Coincidentally, in that election, the NCP became the first party in the nation, while Congress was second.

Prior to that, in 2070, when Congress's Tek Bahadur won, Congress became the first party, and in 2064, when Maoist's Dev Bahadur Gurung was victorious, the Maoists held dominance nationwide. In every election since the establishment of the republic, the party whose candidate Manang sends to parliament has ended up being the leading party nationally.

However, a different scenario is unfolding in Manang this time, a district that traditionally signals the national election results. The main traditional rivals, Congress and UML, are standing on the same side. Just before the election, the local lamas gathered the candidates from Congress, UML, and RPP, had them draw lots, with the condition: “Whoever draws the lot, the rest will support them.”

By coincidence, the lot fell to Congress's Tek Bahadur Gurung. UML's Polden Chhopang and RPP's Kubir Singh Gurung withdrew their candidacies without consulting the central leadership, giving a “walkover” to Congress. Leaders from UML and Congress, considered staunch rivals until yesterday, are now campaigning together, asking for votes for the “Rukha” (Tree) symbol from the same platform.

To challenge Congress's Tek Bahadur, the Communist Party of Nepal has fielded Yashoda Subedi, wife of Dev Gurung. Ram Bahadur Ghale of the Mongol National Organization is also in the contest. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) did not field a candidate. The RSP candidate, Anil Gurung, had secured the ticket but the nomination deadline passed before he could travel from Kathmandu to Manang. This time, there will only be three election symbols on the direct ballot paper in Manang.

The process of voters residing in Kathmandu and Pokhara returning to the district has begun. With approximately 7,000 voters, it is estimated that more than 50 percent of votes will be cast in Manang. Due to the small number of voters, the results here always come out the fastest. With the support of UML this time, it is much easier for Congress's Tek Bahadur to win the election.

However, everyone is curious about one thing: “Will Manang's result influence national politics this time as well?” If the old sequence repeats, will Congress maintain its sole dominance in national politics again, or will a different result emerge? The answer to this will only be known after the vote count.

In elections before 2064, representatives in Manang were often elected unanimously. Even when there was competition, the history shows it was usually between Congress and UML. This time, 1 temporary and 28 permanent polling stations have been designated in Manang. Some polling stations in Narphu Rural Municipality and Manang Ghyasrang are still covered in snow. Security agencies have cleared the obstruction on the road to Narphu caused by accumulated snow. Chief District Officer Navaraj Poudyal informed that Manang is fully prepared for the election, provided the weather does not become an obstacle.

The candidates have now reached the district. While voters from other areas have started returning, voters from Narphu are preparing to return to their villages only after the 14th. Chief Election Officer Ramprasad Paudel informed that after the voters reach the villages, security personnel and staff will head there with polling materials for voting.

According to him, preparations are underway to train the polling officers and assistant staff. A plan has also been made to bring the ballot boxes down to the district headquarters as quickly as possible after voting, he added.