Political Landscape Shifts in Kailali-1 as Resham Chaudhary's Influence Wanes Amidst Party Splits

Dhangadhi. In the political climate following the Tikapur incident, Kailali Constituency No. 1 remains a stronghold for Resham Chaudhary in the House of Representatives elections. Chaudhary, who was convicted by the court as the main planner of the Tikapur incident and has served his sentence, has been raising the voice of the Tharu community in this Tharu-majority area.

In the 2074 parliamentary elections, Resham was elected from this constituency even while being a 'fugitive' in the eyes of the law. At that time, he was nominated by the Rastriya Janata Party Nepal. However, immediately after being elected, he surrendered to the court and was imprisoned. While in jail, unable to perform his duties as a Member of Parliament, he formed the Nagarik Unmukti Party under the chairmanship of his wife, Ranjita Shrestha.

In the 2079 parliamentary elections, Resham's wife, Ranjita, was elected from Kailali-1. Ranjita secured an easy victory due to Resham's influence. At that time, Ranjita was the only woman among the 16 House of Representatives constituencies in the Sudurpaschim Province to win a direct election and reach the Federal Parliament.

Currently, due to discord between the husband and wife, her party has split. Resham left the Nagarik Unmukti Party and formed a party named Nagarik Unmukti Party Nepal. Resham Chaudhary himself wanted to be a candidate from that constituency, but the Election Commission canceled his candidacy.

Neither the Nagarik Unmukti Party nor the Nagarik Unmukti Party Nepal has fielded a candidate in that constituency this time. Therefore, there is significant curiosity about what option the voters in that area will choose this time.

The Nagarik Unmukti Party, chaired by Ranjita Shrestha, has now united with the Communist Party of Nepal. The CPN, formed by the unification of the then CPN (Maoist Centre), CPN (Unified Socialist), Bhim Rawal's faction, and the Nagarik Unmukti Party, is expected to secure favorable results in this election. The CPN has nominated Ramlal Dagaura Tharu as the candidate for this constituency. Dagaura was elected as the Mayor of Tikapur Municipality in 2079. He resigned from the post of Mayor with the intention of entering parliamentary politics and became a competitor.

On the other hand, as this is Resham Chaudhary's area of influence, it is assessed that his support and backing could influence the election results.

Komal Gyawali, the founding Central Treasurer of the former NUP, is contesting from Kailali-1 this time on behalf of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). Another leader from the same party, Pradipkumar Chaudhary, is a candidate from the Ujyalo Nepal Party led by Kulman Ghising.

It is not unnatural to assume that other major parties or independent candidates will benefit significantly from the fragmentation of what was once a strong force. Local teacher Motiram Joshi stated that since many individuals are claiming votes from the same vote bank, this time's result is likely to be unexpected.

The electoral history of Kailali-1 is different. Voters here rarely remember a person they elected once in the next election. In the 2048 election, Ganga Bahadur Kunwar of the Nepali Congress won from this constituency. In 2051, Himanchalraj Bhattarai of CPN-UML was elected from this area.

In 2056, Sushila Swar of the Congress was elected, while in the 2064 Constituent Assembly election, Rupa Sosi Chaudhary of the Maoist Centre was elected. In the 2070 Constituent Assembly election, Janakraj Chaudhary of the Federal Democratic Forum was elected from here. In the 2074 election, voters elected Resham Chaudhary while he was underground, and in the 2079 election, they elected his wife, Ranjita Shrestha.

Nineteen candidates are competing in this constituency. The Nepali Congress has given the ticket this time to Janakraj Chaudhary, replacing former minister Ramjanam Chaudhary who was defeated in 2079. Dwarka Prasad Neupane is competing for the CPN-UML. He is aiming to secure the result in his favor based on organizational strength.

Similarly, Janakraj Shah from Proloba, Lokendra Kunwar from Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Bhagatram Dagaura Tharu from Janmat Party, Rupa Kumari Chaudhary from Aam Janata Party, and Sunita Bhandari from NSP are also in the fray.

There is also a large contingent of independent candidates in this constituency. Independent candidates including Arun Thakulla, Janakraj Shah, Tapendra Shah, Naresh Rawal, Phaguram Chaudhary, and Rajendra Bahadur Shahi are trying to draw votes from voters dissatisfied with the established parties.

There is extreme disillusionment and anger towards political parties among the voters in Tikapur and surrounding areas. The common complaint is that development work has stalled and those elected have not returned to address the issues.

Vivek Rawal of Tikapur Municipality said, 'It's always like this here; those who get elected do nothing. The faces change, but the tendencies do not. Therefore, the result this time is certain to be different. We are in favor of giving a chance to new people who can work.'

Sunita Chaudhary of Tikapur also plans to change her vote this time. 'We voted for Nagarik Unmukti because they were from our own community,' she said, 'They did nothing; instead, they spent time fighting among themselves. We did not vote to watch the fight between husband and wife. Therefore, this time we will look for an alternative.'

Based on the proportional representation votes of 2079, the Nagarik Unmukti Party was very strong here. At that time, NUP received 27,406 proportional votes, while Nepali Congress received 11,395, Maoist Centre received 7,992, UML received 5,215, and RPP received 4,103 votes. The Rastriya Swatantra Party received 2,517 proportional votes from here.

The situation here has changed now. The NUP, which had 27,000 votes, is divided. Although a large portion of those votes appears to be in favor of Ramlal Dagaura Tharu through the CPN (Communist Party of Nepal), the dissatisfaction of Resham Chaudhary, the entry of Komal Gyawali into RSP, and the candidacy of Pradip Chaudhary will certainly divide those votes.

In such a situation, there is an equal possibility for older parties like Congress and UML to secure the result in their favor if they can retain their organizational votes while attracting dissatisfied votes. On the other hand, how much urban and youth vote the RSP can attract will also impact the results.