Intense Political Battle Looms in Jhapa-5 as Oli Faces Strong Challenge from Rastriya Swatantra Party

Biratnagar. “It looks difficult to even save the deposit this time,” said a veteran leader from one of the older parties in Jhapa Constituency 5. While there is a buzz about the fierce competition between the two main contenders, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and senior leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Balendra Shah, other competing parties are worried.

The Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre), and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), busy with door-to-door campaigns, are bracing themselves to secure their past votes. However, their candidates still claim they will win.

Not only them, but local leaders from UML and RSP, who are seeking victory, are also unable to confidently assert that their party is secure. A UML team found in Jhapa's Gauriganj-5, Chilhara, was busy forming a committee. UML leader Hriday Thakur, discussing with some locals in an area inhabited by Adivasi and Dalit communities, stated that responsibilities and programs are being organized in every ward and neighborhood. However, Kedar Dhungel, a junior leader from UML present in the same discussion, admitted they are feeling the pressure. “We have been winning this ward since '48 (Bikram Sambat). The organizational foundation is strong, but we are certainly feeling a bit more 'pressure' now. The talk among the youth has made a slight difference.”

UML claims to have formed 46 'Tole' (neighborhood) organizations in Gauriganj alone. “These committees are not just election-focused; they are regular party committees. We also have sister organizations,” Dhungel said. Pointing to the locals present in the discussion, Dhungel added, “We have taken charge of the ward, and they have taken charge of the Tole. An election mobilization committee is being formed under the leadership of those taking charge of the Tole. We are trying to make them a bit more active.”

He mentioned that currently, instead of reaching every ward, the focus is on meeting all the old cadres and emphasizing personal meetings over speeches.

According to UML sources, the work is being done with Tole committees under Ward committees, and 'Pana' committees under Tole committees. The source claims that one committee (Pana committee) is formed for every 100 voters. Furthermore, UML has arranged for the Pana committee to monitor where each voter goes throughout the day. UML's goal is to stop voters who start moving elsewhere, prevent them from joining another party, and report to the higher committee.

Meanwhile, in the party of Balendra Shah, who is competing as a candidate for the future Prime Minister, some confusion seems apparent in election mobilization. “Balen Shah's secretariat seems to have a separate campaign, and the party has a separate one,” said an RSP leader. “We are preparing to move forward by resolving that issue.”

However, sources claim that the Balen Shah secretariat is analyzing technical aspects, downloading voter lists, and mobilizing influencers accordingly. “Teams of 5-7 people have been mobilized according to 28 identified elements,” the source stated. “There are separate teams looking after issues like women, Dalits, squatters, and indigenous nationalities. We also have a safeguard system in place to secure voters who will vote for the 'Ghanti' (bell symbol) until the end of the voting period.”

UML leaders themselves claim that while the wave for RSP (Ghanti) is visible in the market areas and intersections, the grip of the older parties remains strong in the villages. “There is currently a state of confusion within the main three parties—CPN-UML, Congress, and RPP. Some cadres are scattered. Some say 'Ghanti,' some say something else, some say 'Maato' (earth/soil). The main competition right now appears to be between UML and Rastriya Swatantra Party,” said UML leader Dhungel.

To gauge the situation in the election, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has been in the constituency since last Friday. He is expected to stay there for a week. During this time, Oli has also been busy with daily meetings. On Saturday alone, Oli delivered sermons at 3 Puranas (religious gatherings) and held more than a dozen other meetings. On the other hand, RSP candidate Balen Shah's team, including his wife Sabina Kafle, is also engaged in regular meetings. They are targeting squatter settlements.

Nevertheless, the number of people leaving other parties to join RSP is increasing. In this context, UML leaders from Damak like Santosh Dulal, UML's Mahendra Khadka (who was also the constituency's deputy secretary), party district member Mahesh Ghimire, leader Rajesh Prasai, officials of the liaison forum, and the chairman and vice-chairman of the Youth Association have joined RSP. Similarly, Congress's city president Prakash Prasai and others have joined RSP. Local leaders say that many laborers, squatters, and people from Rai, Limbu, and Rajbanshi communities have joined Harka Sampang's party.

Dhundiraj Bhandari, the regional president of the Nepali Congress in Jhapa Constituency No. 5, states that they have also moved forward by forming 407 Tole committees across the constituency. “Coordinators have been appointed in every Tole. The entire authority for publicity, dissemination, and door-to-door campaigning is given to the Ward Committee. We are moving according to the Ward's plan. Wherever the Ward Committee leads, we go there. Local issues are handled by the Ward; we do not interfere in that,” he explained his election plan. “After the Special General Convention, new leadership has emerged in Congress. Our slogan has changed to 'Congress Changed, We Will Change the Country.' We are educating voters that Congress has truly come with change. No other party's leadership has changed, but Congress's leadership has changed. Therefore, we are making workers and the public understand that Congress is the first party of change.”

He argued that their candidate is local and that Congress is strong locally because it has stood by the locals in their joys and sorrows. “KP Oli has been winning from here since the beginning; there is not much to say about him. But speaking of this new party, they don't know anyone here. They are wearing black sunglasses; we don't know how they view the public. They don't talk to anyone either. They are only seen on Facebook, only visible during elections, but people cannot meet them,” he said.

Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) leader Lukki Sitoula says they are going to the villages with the slogan of changing the country's leadership. “We want to change the leadership we have been watching for 35 years, and we want the coming leadership to address the issues of this country and us common people,” she said. “Blueprints and our manifestos are being prepared, and we will publish them soon. Currently, we are collecting suggestions, and our effort is to reach every house. Our candidate Balendra Shah will come to Jhapa in a few days, and preparations are underway to reach all Toles and all areas.”

She mentioned that RSP also has an organization down to the ward level. “We are doing things slightly differently than the old parties. We are trying to reach house-to-house,” she said. “We might not have the organization structure like UML or other parties, but we have more people than leaders. In other parties, there might be fewer people and more leaders; in ours, there are more people—understand it that way.” She stated that the party membership in Jhapa Constituency 5 has reached 6-7 thousand. In that constituency, Congress has 7,597 active members, and UML has a similar number.

In the 2079 parliamentary election, UML Chairman Oli won from Jhapa-5 with 52,319 votes. His competitor, Congress's Khagendra Pandav Adhikari, received 23,743 votes. RSP candidate Suresh Kumar Pokharel secured 11,748 votes.

In the Proportional Representation category, UML came first with 35,872 votes, while RSP, which received the second highest votes, got 18,025 votes. Congress received 16,859 votes, the then CPN (Maoist Centre) received 8,680, and RPP received 7,370 votes. In the election scheduled for the upcoming Falgun 21, there are 163,379 voters. Approximately 10,000 new voters have been added in this constituency this time.