Ramechhap Election Battleground: A Tight Contest as Old Guard Faces New Challengers Ahead of February 21 Vote

Kathmandu. The election atmosphere has heated up in Ramechhap, nestled between the Tamakoshi and Sunkoshi rivers. The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 21 has brought electoral excitement to the villages and settlements of Ramechhap.

With a 34-year electoral history, this district does not fall into the secure fortress of any single party. In elections held in Ramechhap since 2048 BS, CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, and the then CPN (Maoist Centre) have won in turns.

The dominance of the three older parties—from the first general election after the restoration of multi-party democracy until the 2079 election—shows a long-standing balance between leftist communist and democratic forces in Ramechhap.

Before the promulgation of the constitution, Ramechhap had two constituencies, which were reduced to just one after the constitution was enacted in 2072 BS. Two elections have been held since the constitution was formed, both won by the CPN (Maoist Centre) and the Nepali Congress.

However, the election on February 21 is not just a contest for a single seat in Ramechhap; it is seen as a crucial test for the established parties to safeguard their prestige, which they have held alternately for three decades, and for rising forces to establish their existence.

In Ramechhap, 187,952 voters will exercise their right to vote this time. The 7,846 new voters added since the 2079 election are expected to be the decisive force in this election. The psychology of these young voters, especially those aged 20 to 25, is anticipated to potentially shift the trajectory of traditional politics.

Seventeen candidates have filed nominations for the single seat in Ramechhap in the upcoming election.

Ramechhap's electoral history is different from others; no party has ever established a permanent stronghold here. Members of Parliament have been elected from different political parties in every election.

Looking at the 34-year history since the restoration of the multi-party system, Ramechhap shows an interesting tug-of-war between the communists and the Congress.

In 2048 BS, Ramechhap had two constituencies.

In the first election after the restoration of multi-party democracy in 2048 BS, the Congress secured a victory. Laxman Prasad Ghimire of the Congress won in the then Constituency No. 1 of Ramechhap.

However, in Constituency No. 2 at that time, Kamal Prasad Chaulagai of the United People's Front was victorious. Furthermore, the 2051 mid-term election proved to be the most 'thrilling' in Ramechhap's history. In Constituency No. 1, CPN-UML's Devshanker Poudel defeated Congress's Ghimire by a margin of 11 votes. In Constituency No. 2, Padam Shankar Adhikari of the Congress was elected.

Similarly, in the 2056 election, CPN-UML maintained its legacy in Constituency No. 1, with Kamal Prakash Sunuwar winning, while Congress's Ram Hari Dhungel won in Constituency No. 2.

In the first Constituent Assembly election of 2064 BS, following the second People's Movement, Ramechhap became an entirely 'Red Fortress.' Maoist candidates Taranarayan Shrestha and Dilliman Tamang won in both constituencies. However, by 2070 BS, voters balanced things again, electing Angtawa Sherpa of the Congress in Constituency No. 1 and Shyam Kumar Shrestha of the Maoist in Constituency No. 2.

After the constitution of 2072 BS, the district was consolidated into a single constituency. In the 2074 election held after the constitution, Shyam Kumar Shrestha won amidst the wave of the Left Alliance.

In the latest 2079 election, Nepali Congress's Purna Bahadur Tamang (Kanchharam), supported by the five-party alliance, won by a large margin, successfully reviving the Congress presence in Ramechhap.

Thus, in all elections held so far, no single party has won three times in Ramechhap. However, looking at the electoral results over the past 34 years, the influence of the Communist Party appears to be greater in Ramechhap.

• Triangular Contest: UML Aims to Reclaim Legacy

Although 17 candidates have registered for the February 21 election in Ramechhap, the main competition is expected to be triangular. Candidates from CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, and the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) are seen as the main contenders. The established parties are aiming to reclaim their proud legacy in the upcoming election.

In terms of votes, this constituency is known as an area of UML influence. Since there are no alliances between the parties in the upcoming election, the traditional parties are contesting alone.

This suggests that the Ramechhap election will be a test of the political parties' strength. However, the changing political landscape is expected to have an impact. A tough contest is anticipated between the emerging forces, Ujyalo Nepal Party and Rastriya Swatantra Party.

• CPN-UML's Madhav Dhungel: Youthful Zeal and Organizational Base

CPN-UML has put forward Madhav Prasad Dhungel, a new face, this time. Dhungel, a former chairman of the All Nepal National Free Students Union (ANNFSU) and a successful leader of the National Youth Council for two terms, is contesting his first parliamentary election. He also became a central committee member of CPN-UML in the 11th General Convention following the Jenezhi movement.

He has previously served as the Secretary of the CPN-UML Organization Department. Dhungel is considered a main contender in Ramechhap due to being a young candidate for CPN-UML with access to the political center.

He has completed his Master's degree from Tribhuvan University and studied LLB. He is currently working on his dissertation for his PhD.

In Ramechhap, he has a large network of youth and the strong organizational vote base of CPN-UML. CPN-UML was the leading party in the proportional representation votes in 2079 BS with 28,150 votes. Relying on that base, Dhungel aims to secure victory and bring back the old prestige.

Out of Ramechhap's 8 local levels, CPN-UML won 3, including one municipality. The three local levels won by CPN-UML include Manthali Municipality, which currently has 37,041 voters.

In the 2079 local level elections, CPN-UML's Lava Shrestha secured 9,718 votes for the Mayor of Manthali Municipality, while Congress's Binod Kumar Karki received 9,122 votes.

Similarly, in Khandadevi Rural Municipality, CPN-UML's Gyan Kumar Shrestha won with 7,369 votes, while Congress's Navaraj Thokar only received 4,909 votes. In Umakunda Rural Municipality, CPN-UML's Sher Bahadur Sunuwar was elected with 3,728 votes, while Congress's Jit Bahadur Katuwal received 2,172 votes. With a strong base even at the local level, Dhungel appears to be the strong candidate.

• Challenge for Congress to Save Prestige

Congress has nominated the senior and dedicated leader Ramchandra Khadka this time. In this constituency, which was won by Purna Bahadur Tamang (Kanchharam) in 2079 BS, the main challenge for Congress may be to retain its own votes.

Khadka has a chance if he can manage the internal dissatisfaction within the party and grievances regarding ticket distribution. Khadka's modest image and his work as the District President appear to be his main assets.

Khadka is a former District President of the Congress. Defeated by a narrow margin in the 2070 election, Khadka is relying on sympathy and the party's traditional vote base this time. In the 2079 election, Congress trailed CPN-UML in proportional representation votes here, receiving 24,101 votes. However, in the direct election, Congress's Tamang won with 47,099 votes. Congress won Ramechhap Municipality along with Likhu Tamakoshi and Gokulganga Rural Municipalities.

• CPN's Old Face

CPN candidate Shyam Kumar Shrestha is a familiar face in Ramechhap. He has already been elected as a Member of Parliament twice before (2070 and 2074 BS). Shrestha has also served as a Minister of State for Home Affairs once.

His strength has been further consolidated since the formation of the party by merging the Unified Socialist and Maoist Centre. Specifically, communist strongholds in Ramechhap, such as Doramba and Sunapati Rural Municipalities, are strong bases for Shrestha, but appealing to a segment of voters who see him as an 'old face' could be his main challenge.

In 2079 BS, in the two rural municipalities won by the then Maoist Centre, Sunapati received 5,398 votes while Congress received 4,851 votes. Similarly, in Doramba Rural Municipality, Maoist's Main Kumar Muktan secured 6,270 votes, while CPN-UML's Tanka Prasad Chaulagai received 6,150 votes.

• New Forces: Rise of RSP and Ujyalo Nepal

In the upcoming election, new forces are startling the traditional powers. Dr. Krishna Hari Budhathoki is in the field from RSP. The extent to which RSP, which received 4,623 proportional representation votes in 2079 BS, can cut into votes this time will determine the victory or defeat of the major parties.

Ujyalo Nepal Party also has a candidate here. Bethan in Ramechhap is the home district of Kulman Ghising, the Executive Director of Nepal Electricity Authority. Ghising has fielded Deep Bahadur Yonjan as a candidate.

Kulman's popularity and the credit he received for ending load-shedding might attract a large segment of the Ramechhap electorate towards Yonjan. Analysis suggests that the votes cut by Yonjan, due to the Tamang-majority area and Kulman's persona, could affect CPN-UML and CPN the most.

• New Voters and Changing Arithmetic

The total voter count in the district has reached 187,952 for the February 21 election. Compared to the 180,106 voters in the 2079 election, 7,846 new voters have been added this time. Most of those added are in the 20 to 25 age group, and these new voters appear set to be the deciders of the February 21 results. The direction in which this generation, seeking good governance, technology, and employment instead of the traditional politics of the old parties, leans will determine the future leadership of Ramechhap.

In the 2079 election, Congress's Tamang won here with 47,099 votes, but that vote also had the support of the Maoist Centre. On the other hand, CPN-UML's Dhungel received 30,730 votes, and CPN-UML contested that election alone.

In 2079 BS, CPN-UML was the leading party in Ramechhap's proportional representation votes with 28,150 votes, while Congress received 24,101 votes. The huge gap between the 47,000 votes received in the direct election and the 24,000 votes in the proportional representation indicates that the alliance and Kanchharam's personal influence greatly helped Congress last time.

On the other hand, in 2079 BS, the Maoist Centre received 21,000 votes and the Unified Socialist received 1,300 votes in the proportional representation. Shrestha appears to need to add votes from his personal influence and old legacy to this base of 22,000.

In 2079 BS, RSP received 4,623 votes here. Although the growing craze for RSP in recent days suggests some additional votes, based only on the proportional representation votes, it appears very weak here.