Tough Contest Expected in Dhading-1, a Traditional Communist Stronghold, for Upcoming House of Representatives Election

Kathmandu. A tough contest is anticipated in Dhading-1, considered a stronghold of the communists, for the House of Representatives election scheduled for Falgun 21, between traditional parties CPN-UML, Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre), and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

CPN-UML is aiming to reclaim its glorious past dominance in this constituency where it once held a strong grip. On the other hand, Rajendra Prasad Pandey, the candidate from CPN (Maoist Centre), is entering his eighth electoral contest. Initially, Pandey used to contest as a candidate for CPN-UML. However, he is now a candidate from the CPN formed after the unification of CPN (Unified Socialist), which split from CPN-UML, and the Maoist Centre. He is under pressure to maintain his previous legacy.

Pandey argues that it will be easier for him as the main competing parties are participating in the election individually. 'We have good votes in all local levels. Although the recent wave has slightly affected votes in some local levels, it does not seem to have a major impact. The dominance of the communists will remain this time as well,' he said.

Pandey, a resident of Chhepang in Gajuri Rural Municipality, was elected as a central committee member in the sixth general convention of CPN-UML. He was elected to the Politburo in the eighth general convention and the Standing Committee in the ninth general convention. In 2078 BS (2021 AD), he joined CPN (Unified Socialist) after the split of CPN-UML. In the tenth general convention of CPN (Unified Socialist) held in Ashadh last year, he was elected as the Senior Vice Chairman.

Former Chief Minister and another influential leader of CPN (Maoist Centre), Shalikram Jamkattel, asserted that the votes of CPN (Maoist Centre) have not been affected. He claimed that CPN (Maoist Centre) will win easily as the votes of Nepali Congress and CPN-UML will cross over to RSP.

'We are far ahead by a significant margin in Benighat Rorang, Siddhilek, and Gajuri Rural Municipalities. We also have good votes in Thangkre, Galchi Rural Municipalities, and Dhunibesi Municipality. In Galchi and Dhunibesi, we have almost equal votes to CPN-UML,' Jamkattel stated.

Jamkattel asserted that the reason for CPN (Maoist Centre)'s victory is that its voter base in the geography remains unaffected, citing the decline in CPN-UML's popular support due to the suppression of the Jyanji rebellion, internal conflicts in Nepali Congress due to leadership change, and RSP's over-reliance on social media.

He added that the popular mandate will be attracted because the agenda put forth by CPN (Maoist Centre) is more progressive compared to the competing parties.

CPN-UML candidate Bhumi Tripathi, who was defeated in the previous election due to the alliance of Congress-Maoist-Unified Socialist, is also determined to secure a favorable result. Tripathi, a resident of Richhutar in Benighat Rorang Rural Municipality, has served as the district chairman for 12 years. A lawyer by profession, he is the party in-charge and a central committee member for Dhading. He claims that although CPN (Maoist Centre) has a slight lead in his own local level, CPN-UML has a strong grip in other local levels.

'Although CPN (Maoist Centre) has a slight lead in Benighat Rorang and Gajuri Rural Municipalities, we have a strong hold in Siddhilek, Galchi, Thangkre, and Dhunibesi Municipalities. CPN-UML will not face problems as Nepali Congress votes will cross over to RSP,' he said.

Meanwhile, Nepali Congress and RSP are aggressively preparing to break the stronghold that has been dominated by communists for 34 years. Nepali Congress has fielded a new face, Krishna Rijal, for the contest. Rijal, a permanent resident of D Gaun in Thangkre Rural Municipality, is an associate professor at Nepal Sanskrit University. He is a general convention representative from the 14th General Convention.

Following Gagan Thapa's election as president in the special general convention held in the last week of Poush, he gave the ticket to his close associate Rijal. Rijal asserts that victory is certain as Congress is contesting the election with transformation.

'We are contesting the election with new leadership. In the past, we went to the elections with alliances, so the votes did not come as expected,' he said. 'Congress has strong organizational votes in all local levels. Since we are contesting the election individually, we are confident of securing a win this time.'

RSP has nominated social leader and artist Asika Tamang as its candidate. Since Tamang is a resident of Gajuri Rural Municipality, it is estimated that she can influence the popular mandate in that municipality. It is being analyzed that the growing nationwide momentum for RSP might also affect Dhading-1.

Tamang is known by many as a social activist. It remains to be seen how the popular mandate in Dhading-1 will be affected by her social image on one hand and the wave in favor of RSP on the other. Tamang also claims that there is a wave in favor of RSP. She stated that everyone from the elderly to the youth and children gave her positive feedback during her visits to villages to meet voters.

'There is a big wave in favor of RSP not only in urban areas but also in villages. I did not even have to introduce myself to the elderly, youth, and children. Everyone gave positive feedback. If we lose due to internal technical weaknesses, that's a different matter; otherwise, a win seems likely,' she said.

There are 23 candidates in the fray from this constituency, 13 from political parties and 10 independents. In the 2079 BS (2022 AD) election, Pandey, the candidate from the (Congress-Maoist-Unified Socialist) alliance, won by a margin of 8,091 votes. He secured 36,018 votes, while the nearest rival Tripathi of CPN-UML received 27,927 votes.

Similarly, RSP's Himesh Pant received 12,494 votes, while others collectively received only 1,395 votes. Even when contesting alone after the party split at that time, Tripathi secured a good number of votes.

In the proportional representation category, CPN-UML secured the first position with 24,813 votes, followed by Nepali Congress in second with 16,567, Maoist Centre in third with 15,794, and RSP in fourth with 10,127 votes. CPN (Unified Socialist) received a total of 6,035 votes.

• History Revealed

In the election held in 2048 BS (1991 AD) after the establishment of multi-party democracy, CPN-UML captured the erstwhile Dhading Constituencies 2 and 3, while Nepali Congress won Constituency 1. In the 2051 BS mid-term election, RPP captured Constituency 1, while this area remained under the grip of CPN-UML.        

In the 2056 BS election, RPP captured Dhading-1 and Nepali Congress captured Dhading-2, while CPN-UML achieved a hat-trick in Dhading-3 (current Dhading-1). Interestingly, Rajendra Pandey was victorious in all three elections. Therefore, this constituency was considered CPN-UML's 'Red Fort' or fertile ground. Moreover, with the influential leader Pandey contesting, candidates from other parties merely participated in the process.

In the first Constituent Assembly election held in 2064 BS (2008 AD), CPN (Maoist) achieved a 'clean sweep' in all three constituencies of Dhading, not just Dhading-1. In the 2070 BS election, CPN-UML made a 'comeback' in all three constituencies. In 2064 BS, influential Maoist leader Shalikram Jamkattel was victorious from this constituency. In 2070 BS, Pandey took revenge for his defeat against Jamkattel.

In 2074 BS, after CPN-UML and Maoist merged to form the Nepal Communist Party, both Pandey and Jamkattel were elected as Provincial Assembly members. Pandey won from Provincial Assembly 1 and Jamkattel from Provincial Assembly 2 by a large margin. Coincidentally, both leaders succeeded in becoming Chief Ministers of Bagmati Province. CPN-UML's district chairman Bhumi Tripathi was elected as the House of Representatives member. Unfortunately, due to the power struggle between the then CPN chairpersons KP Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda', the CPN dissolved. CPN-UML also did not remain intact due to internal disputes. The Madhav Nepal faction split the party and formed CPN (Unified Socialist) in 2078 BS.

• Results of the Last Local Level Election (2079 BS)

In the 2079 BS local level elections, Maoist Centre won the chairmanship of Gajuri Rural Municipality along with Wards 1, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Nepali Congress won the vice-chairmanship and other wards.

In Galchi Rural Municipality, CPN-UML won the chairmanship along with Wards 1, 2, and 7. Nepali Congress won the vice-chairmanship and Wards 4, 6, and 8, while Maoist Centre won only Wards 3 and 5.

In Thangkre Rural Municipality, CPN-UML won the chairmanship along with Wards 1, 5, 7, 9, and 10. Maoist Centre won the vice-chairmanship and Wards 2, 3, 4, and 6. Ward 8 was won by CPN (Unified Socialist) and Ward 11 by Nepali Congress.

In Siddhilek Municipality, Nepali Congress won the chairmanship and Wards 2 and 7 only. Maoist Centre won Wards 1 and 5. CPN-UML won Wards 3, 4, and 6.

In Benighat Rorang Municipality, Maoist Centre won the chairmanship along with Wards 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Unified Socialist won the vice-chairmanship, and Nepali Congress won Wards 1 and 10, while CPN-UML won Wards 3 and 9.

In Dhunibesi Municipality, the mayor was won by CPN (Unified Socialist) and the deputy mayor by Nepali Congress. Maoist Centre won Wards 1, 6, and 8. Ward 5 was won by an independent candidate, while Unified Socialist won Wards 2 and 4. Nepali Congress won Wards 3, 7, and 9, while CPN-UML drew a blank.

According to leaders of CPN (Maoist Centre), they have a strong influence in Benighat Rorang, Gajuri, and Siddhilek based on popular mandate. They assert that they are on par with other parties in Galchi Rural Municipality and Dhunibesi Municipality. Maoist leaders Pandey and Jamkattel stated that CPN-UML's popular mandate has been decreasing in Thangkre recently.

On the other hand, CPN-UML candidate Tripathi claims that although CPN (Maoist Centre) is slightly ahead in Benighat and Gajuri, they are ahead in other local levels. According to the Election Commission, Dhading-1 has 136,686 voters.