CPN-UML Leads in Karnali's Proportional Vote Share but Struggles in Direct Elections Since 2006

Surkhet. The CPN-UML is the leading political party in Karnali based on popular votes. In the 2079 House of Representatives elections, UML received the highest number of votes in the proportional representation category.

In the proportional representation for the House of Representatives, UML secured 183,130 votes, followed by Congress in second place with 180,909 votes, and the Maoist Centre in third place with 135,496 votes.

Similarly, the CPN (Unified Socialist) ranked fourth, and the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) ranked fifth in terms of proportional votes. It should be noted that despite securing the top position in proportional voting in that election, UML suffered defeat in 12 constituencies of the House of Representatives direct elections in Karnali.

With the alliance between the Maoist Centre, Congress, and Unified Socialist, the Maoist Centre won 4 seats (Rukum West, Jajarkot, Kalikot, and Humla), while the Unified Socialist won 3 seats (Salyan, Dolpa, and Dailekh-1).

Congress, which was limited to zero in 074, won 4 seats with the strength of the alliance in both Surkhet constituencies, Dailekh-2, and Mugu. RPP won 1 seat in Jumla, while UML remained at zero.

In 2074, when there was a leftist alliance, UML won 6 seats and the Maoist Centre won 5 seats, with one seat coming from an independent candidate.

• Constituencies where UML has not won any election since the 2060s

In the 2056 elections, UML won all 5 constituencies of the then Karnali region. Gorakh Bogati won in Humla, Prem Singh (currently CPN) in Kalikot (currently CPN), Chandra Bahadur Shahi (currently CPN) in Mugu, Nar Bahadur Budhathoki in Dolpa, and Devilal Thapa in Jumla.

Besides those, UML had a presence in areas now falling within the Karnali Province. At that time, other districts had about 2-3 constituencies. Nar Bahadur Hamal won from Dailekh-1, and Ratna Sharma won from Jajarkot-2 representing UML.

However, UML shrunk after the 2060s. Four House of Representatives elections have been held: 064, 070, 074, and 079, in which UML has no record of winning elections in Jajarkot, Rukum West, Kalikot, Jumla, and Humla.

UML Central Committee member Dal Rawal attributes UML's weakness in these areas to the influence of the Maoist Centre. The Maoist Centre had the largest presence in Karnali during the ten-year armed conflict they initiated. The Maoist Centre became more influential in Karnali than elsewhere due to the aftermath of the conflict.

"After the war, the Maoist Centre had momentum and strong influence," he says, "In post-federal elections, there are alliances, leading to not getting tickets sometimes, or issues arising from the nature of the alliances." However, another provincial-level leader from UML points to internal weaknesses within UML.

"Within the party, leaders did not have a strong presence at the center; Karnali was not given representation in other political appointments, including ambassadorships," he says. "Since the 2060s, UML has not received a full ministerial position at the center."

Now, for the first time in many years, Yamalal Kandel has become a party secretary.

• UML Always Third in Jumla

Although UML's Devilal Thapa won the election in Jumla in 2056, the Maoist Centre emerged as the main political force in subsequent elections. In the 064 election, Maoist Centre's Naresh Bhandari won with 21,127 votes. Congress received 12,000 votes at that time. In 070, Congress's Lalitjung Shahi won, defeating rival Maoist Centre's Gajendra Mahat. In 074, Mahat, who was defeated in the previous election, won with 22,173 votes. Rival Congress's Devendra Shahi received 14,149 votes.

In that election, there was an alliance between UML and the Maoist Centre. In the 079 House of Representatives election, RSP's Gyanendra Shahi won, even with the alliance between Congress and the Maoist Centre. However, organizationally, the Maoist Centre is the first party in Jumla.

In previous elections where Congress and the Maoist Centre competed, RSP's Shahi won surprisingly. But in that election, UML received the highest proportional vote share with 10,548 votes.

However, Congress received the second-highest proportional votes, and the Maoist Centre received the third-highest. But in direct elections, UML has secured the third position in most elections in Karnali.

This time, UML has nominated Shantilal Mahat as the candidate here. Meanwhile, Prachanda has given the ticket to the renowned leader from CPN, Naresh Bhandari, to reclaim the lost prestige of the Maoist Centre in 079. On the other hand, Gyanendra Shahi is again the candidate from RSP, while Manarishi Dhital, considered an intellectual leader and writer, is contesting from PRLOPA.

• Humla

In the mountainous district of Humla, Congress won in 051, and in 056, UML's Gorakh Bogati won. Bogati, who is still active in politics, is a proportional member of parliament for the upcoming House of Representatives. Defeated in 064, he has been like a perennial proportional candidate in every election since, although he has not managed to reach parliament.

He is compared to Yamalal Kandel within UML in Karnali but has been hesitant to contest direct elections recently.

In 064, Maoist Centre's Karnajit Budhathoki was elected here. In 070, Congress's Jivan Bahadur Shahi won, and in 074, independent MP Chhakka Bahadur Lama was victorious. Lama contested as an independent after not getting a ticket from the Maoist Centre. He was considered influential in the district and won; he later joined UML after being with the Maoist Centre.

In 2079, CPN Maoist Centre's Chhiring Dindul Lama won. As influential Congress leader Jivan Bahadur Shahi moved to the provincial level, Lama became the official candidate of the Maoist Centre-Congress alliance. Lama won with 14,371 votes, while UML's Dal Rawal received 9,516 votes. UML is also in third place in proportional votes in this district.

UML has not won any election in this district since the 2060s. For the House of Representatives election on the 21st of Falgun, UML has nominated Dal Phadera. He is a weak candidate who lost the 079 local level and provincial assembly elections. On the other hand, intellectual leader Dr. Dipendra Rokaya is contesting from the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN), and Jayapati Rokaya is from the Congress.

• Jajarkot

Jajarkot is another district where UML has not won any election after the peace process. According to Bedaraj Singh, President of Congress Jajarkot, elections in this district until 048-056 used to be a contest between UML and Congress. However, after the Maoist Centre joined the peace process, they established dominance.

According to him, there were two constituencies in Jajarkot from 048 to 070. In 048, Congress's Dwarika Prasad Pradhan won in Constituency 1, and UML's Krishna Shahi won in Constituency 2.

In the 051 mid-term election, Congress's Jhalaknath Wagle won in 1, and Congress's Deepakjung Shah won in 2; UML was defeated in both constituencies.

In 2056, RPP's Govind Bikram Shah won in Constituency 1, and UML's Ratna Sharma won in Constituency 2. In 064, Maoist Centre's Kal Bahadur Malla won in 1, and Bhakta Bahadur Shahi won in 2. In 070, Maoist Centre's Shakti Basnet won in 1, and Congress's Rajiv Vikram Shah won in 2. Since then, Jajarkot became a single constituency, and the Maoist Centre continuously dominated.

Maoist Centre's Shakti Basnet won both the 074 and 079 elections. However, the Maoist Centre's voter base seems to be declining in Jajarkot recently. In 079, Basnet was elected with 34,151 votes, while UML's Niraj Acharya received 25,120 votes. The votes Basnet received include those from the Congress alliance. In that election, looking at proportional votes, Congress had more than the Maoist Centre: Congress had 22,000, UML had 19,000, and the Maoist Centre had 14,000.

Basnet is again in the fray from the CPN (Maoist Centre) for the House of Representatives election on the 21st of Falgun. He is competing against UML's Dambhar Bahadur Singh, Congress's Khadga Bahadur Buda, and candidates from other new and old political parties. UML has put forward Singh, a leader defeated in the 070 Constituent Assembly and 079 (Provincial 1) elections.

• Kalikot

Kalikot is another district where UML is weak in terms of organization and popular mandate. Since 064, the Maoist Centre has had absolute dominance here. In 064, CPN Maoist Centre's Khadga Bahadur Bishwakarma 'Prakanda', in 070 and 079, Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, and in 074, Durgabahadur Rawat won the House of Representatives election from the Maoist Centre.

'Prakanda' received 27,629 votes in 064. In 070, Mahendra Bahadur Shahi won with 10,084 votes.

After that, in 074, when there was a leftist alliance, UML did not get the ticket. Durgabahadur Rawat was the candidate from the Maoist Centre, and he won that time with 21,112 votes.

At that time, Congress's Bhupendra Jung Shahi received 16,407 votes. In 079, Maoist Centre's Mahendra Bahadur Shahi won with 23,727 votes. His rival, UML's Nagendra Shahi, received 16,718 votes. In that election, UML was severely defeated due to the Maoist Centre-Congress alliance.

Looking at the proportional votes, UML is also in second place in Kalikot. The Maoist Centre is first, and Congress is third.

This time, UML has again nominated the defeated Nagendra Shahi as the candidate. On the other hand, Mahendra Bahadur Shahi is again the candidate from CPN, while Harsh Bahadur Bam is from Congress, Prakash Neupane from RSP, and Khadga Bahadur Bishwakarma 'Prakanda' from CPN (Maoist Centre) is entering the electoral arena after 18 years. It will be difficult for UML to secure a win here.

• Rukum West, Where UML is Weakest

Among the ten districts of Karnali, Rukum West is the weakest for UML. In this stronghold of the Maoist Centre, almost all elections since 064 have been won by the then Deputy General Secretary of the Maoist Centre, Janardan Sharma 'Prabhakar'.

In previous elections here, UML has not had the capacity to compete with the Maoist Centre. Looking at the votes UML received in 079, UML appears weaker than Congress. While Maoist Centre's Sharma was elected with 39,549 votes, UML's Nandaram Devkota received only 12,961 votes.

Perhaps considering the weak popular support, this district is not given much importance within the UML party either. While other districts received central committee members in UML's 11th General Convention, Rukum West did not. Currently, UML has appointed Sushilkumar Thapa from Dailekh as the district in-charge for Rukum West.

Nandaram was again given the ticket from UML for the elections in Falgun, but on Sunday, the UML central office decided to support Janardan from the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party (PRLOPA) itself.

Sharma, who has won four consecutive elections for the Maoist Centre, is being challenged this time by his own protégé, Gopal Sharma from CPN. Man Bahadur Shahi is the candidate from RSP, and Raju KC is the candidate from Congress.

• Only One Election Win for UML in Salyan Since 064

Salyan is another district where UML is weak. In the second Constituent Assembly election of 070, UML's Prakash Jwala won the House of Representatives election in Salyan-2. In most other House of Representatives elections, the Maoist Centre has won, and in 079, when there was an alliance between Maoist Centre, Congress, and Socialist, Socialist leader Prakash Jwala won. He had won the 074 Provincial Assembly election and joined the Socialist after leaving UML during the split of the then CPN.

In that election, UML finished in third place. Jwala received 35,707 votes, while Rajendra Bahadur Shahi (Independent, Congress rebel) received 19,792 votes. UML's Rajendra Bir Ray received only 13,039 votes. In the proportional representation category, however, UML received the highest votes with 22,256.

In 064, the Maoist Centre won both constituencies (Tek Bahadur Basnet in 1, Umakanta Sharma in 2). In 070, Basnet won again in 1. In 074, Basnet won again.

Since 2070, Salyan has become a single constituency for the House of Representatives. Currently, Gulabjung Shah is the candidate from UML here.

• What About Other Districts?

In Mugu, Maoist Centre's Navraj Dhami won in 064, UML's Mohan Baniya in 070, UML's Gopal Bam in 064, and Congress's Ain Bahadur Shahi in 079. In Dolpa, the Maoist Centre won in 064, and since then, Dhan Bahadur Budha has been winning, although he has contested elections from UML at times and from the Socialist at others.

Apart from these, Dailekh remains a stronghold for UML. In Dailekh, which has two constituencies, the electoral competition is usually between UML and Congress, while the Maoist Centre is much weaker compared to these two parties. Dailekh is a district where the Maoist Centre has never won any House of Representatives election.

In Surkhet as well, the electoral contest is primarily between UML and Congress. Surkhet is another district where the Maoist Centre is weak after Dailekh.

Caption: Candidates nominated by UML for the upcoming elections in Falgun from areas where they have failed to win since the 2060s. Photo: RatoPati