Arsenal vs Tottenham: Where north London derby could be won

Bukayo Saka of Arsenal and Son Heung-min of Tottenham are likely to be key players in the north London derby. Getty Images

Gary Rose, BBC Sport journalist, September 13 — The rivalry between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal resumes on Sunday with the first north London derby of the season.

It will be the 175th league meeting between the clubs, with the Gunners victorious in 71 of them.

BBC Sport takes a closer look at the statistics behind the derby and examines where the key battles could be.

Gunners with upper hand in recent games

Arsenal won 3-2 when the sides met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April.

It was their second successive win at Spurs, the first time since September 1988 they had won consecutive top-flight matches at the home of their fiercest rival.

Prior to winning there in the last two seasons they had only won two of their previous 17 away games against Spurs in the Premier League (D6 L9).

Recent results suggest the most likely outcome from this fixture is a victory for one of the sides, because just one of Tottenham's last 49 Premier League home games has been drawn (2-2 v Manchester United in April 2023), and none of the last 22 (W15 L7).

Of all the grounds in Premier League history, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - which opened in 2019 - has witnessed the lowest percentage of draws (9% - 9/101) and remarkably has yet to host a goalless league game.

How will midfield losses affect Arsenal?

Arsenal go into the game depleted in a key area, with Declan Rice suspended and captain Martin Odegaard set to be missing for three weeks after injuring his ankle on international duty.

New signing Mikel Merino is also ruled out with a fractured shoulder, leaving Mikel Arteta with a problem to solve in midfield.

Rice has been brilliant with the ball so far this season, boasting a passing accuracy of 97.1% - better than any other top-flight player to have featured for at least 90 minutes so far this term.

The loss of Odegaard would mean the loss of their most creative spark, with no Arsenal player having created more chances than the Norwegian since the start of last season.

Martin Odegaard's Arsenal rankings since start of last season. Getty Images

Odegaard's impact

• 22Goals & assists (3rd)
• 102Shots (2nd)
• 121Chances created (=1st)
• 325Passes into box (1st)
• 59Poss. won final third (1st)

Source: Opta

The most obvious candidate to come into midfield is Jorginho.

Last season, the Italy midfielder played more successful passes into the final third per 90 minutes than any other Arsenal player (average 23.9), and his ability to play accurate passes over the top could be an asset against Tottenham's high line.

Leandro Trossard could fill Odegaard's role behind Kai Havertz, which may allow Raheem Sterling to make his debut as part of the three behind the striker along with Bukayo Saka.

"No coach likes it when you miss one or two of the most important players in your team," former Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas told the Planet Premier League podcast.

"When Manchester City or Liverpool miss top players they still deal with it in the best manner but not really missing them and Arsenal need to get to this level as well.

"I can't remember an Arsenal game in the last two or three seasons without Odegaard in the team and more recently Rice.

"They are important players but big teams are made of big squads and they will need to prove they are ready to challenge the difficult moments as well."

There has also been talk 17-year-old midfielder Ethan Nwaneri could play a part for the Gunners on Sunday.

"I have no doubts if Mikel puts him in the starting 11 or even during the game, it's because he's seen that he's good enough to make an impact," added Fabregas.

"Obviously, the consequences of Rice and Odegaard being out makes it a little bit faster than maybe what he would have liked.

"If he's part of the squad, it's because he [Arteta] really believes he can bring something to the table."

How Arsenal could line up against Tottenham

Can Tottenham capitalise on chances created?

Tottenham have taken four points from a possible nine this season. Getty Images

It has been a mixed start to the season for Tottenham with a loss, a draw and a win from their three games.

However, all three could easily have been victories. Against Leicester City and Newcastle United they created plenty of chances but were unable to put them away, resulting in a draw and defeat respectively.

They have had 48 shots so far this season - as many as Manchester City and Liverpool - with only Nottingham Forest managing more (53).

They will no doubt look to attack early, as they have done in other games this term. In their opening draw with Leicester they had seven corners in the first 19 minutes, underlining their high-tempo start.

"I think Tottenham will have a real belief they can go and win this game," said former Manchester City defender Nedum Onuoha.

"A reaction to losing to Newcastle before the international break will be key, not least of all to be in your home stadium."

Fabregas added: "Tottenham are a team who are growing and playing very, very good football.

"They are very difficult to play against because they like to have possession and create chances, so you have to be solid defensively."

Most shots so far in 2024-25

Source: Opta

Son and Saka to dictate outcome?

The first meeting between these two sides last season ended in a 2-2 draw at Emirates Stadium, with Saka on target for Arsenal and Son Heung-min scoring for Tottenham.

Both players are expected to be key once again on Sunday.

Son loves the north London derby. He has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions. Only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more than the South Korea striker in the fixture.

Meanwhile, Saka scored home and away goals against Tottenham in the Premier League last season.

The only Arsenal players to score in three or more consecutive north London derby appearances in the competition are Adebayor (five between 2006 and 2008) and Robert Pires (four between 2002 and 2004).

Both had similar attacking statistics last season, with Son having the slight edge by scoring one more goal than Saka (17-16) and providing one more assist (10-9).

Set-pieces could be key

Arsenal were deadly from set-piece situations last season, scoring 22 times from them - more than any other team.

That is twice the amount Tottenham managed, with Spurs conceding 16 times from dead balls last term including two in the 3-2 defeat against Arsenal. Only Sheffield United, Luton Town and Nottingham Forest conceded more.

The Gunners have seen a big improvement in this area since set-piece specialist Nicolas Jover joined in 2021.

In the 111 matches before Jover's arrival, Arsenal scored a goal every 32 corners. In the 111 fixtures since his arrival, they have found the net every 16 corners - a significant improvement.

We are only three games into this season, so a minimal amount can be read into any team's set-piece strength this campaign, but Arsenal are yet to score from one but Tottenham have.

However, Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou has previously indicated that set-pieces - both defending them and scoring from them - is not something he is overly concerned about.

"I'm not interested," he said in May., external "Never have been. Not in the least.

"It's not the first time I've been questioned about set-pieces in my coaching career. There is an underlying reason for that, which I'm very, very comfortable with."

A derby with a different look

Arsenal wore their black away shirt at Aston Villa in August. Getty Images

For the first time in 38 years, Arsenal will wear their away kit after their red-and-white home shirt was deemed to clash with Tottenham's colours.

The Gunners will use their black away strip at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium after referees' body Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) said their home shirt "features too much white".

Arsenal also said wearing their home shirt with red shorts and socks was discussed but not agreed on.

As part of PGMOL's decision, Tottenham will also wear their away kit when they visit Emirates Stadium in the reverse fixture in January.

Arsenal will be without both Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice for Sunday's game. Getty Images