World Cup Knockout Stage Begins with Thrills and Upsets

The real competition of the World Cup has now begun. After a group stage that offered almost no excitement due to its format, the first matches of the knockout stage have given football fans a taste of real excitement after a long time. Strong teams like Germany and Netherlands were eliminated in the Round of 32, while some other contenders also found themselves in very difficult situations.

Cape Verde pushed defending champions Argentina to extra time in Miami. Lionel Messi-led Argentina managed to reach the Round of 16, but they had to breathe a huge sigh of relief to do so.

England's situation was similar. England, trailing until the 75th minute against DR Congo, was put into the Round of 16 by captain Harry Kane, who scored two goals. France and Spain, on the other hand, impressed with their performances, making their claim for the title clear.

Belgium made an incredible comeback against Senegal to keep their tournament journey alive.

All three co-hosts also managed to enter the Round of 16. The USA, reduced to 10 men, defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mexico secured another win without conceding a goal against Ecuador, while Canada registered a thrilling victory against South Africa with a decisive goal in the final minute.

The tournament has now reached its decisive stage. Who has the highest probability of lifting the coveted World Cup trophy in New Jersey on July 19? What is the power ranking of the Round of 16 teams?

Teams eliminated from the Round of 32: South Africa, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Ivory Coast, Sweden, Ecuador, DR Congo, Senegal, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Algeria, Cape Verde, Austria, Australia, and Ghana.

Group of 16 (Teams about to face off in the pre-quarterfinals:

16. Paraguay (Moved Up)

After a humiliating 4-1 defeat to the USA in their opening group match, it was hard to imagine Paraguay reaching the Round of 16. But after that, coach Gustavo Alfaro's team looked very organized. They defeated Turkey and secured a place in the knockout stage with a draw against Australia that benefited both teams.

Then, after a 1-1 draw against four-time world champions Germany in Boston, Paraguay achieved arguably the biggest accomplishment in their World Cup history by winning on penalties. Now, an even tougher challenge lies ahead. To repeat their best World Cup history of reaching the quarterfinals in 2010, Paraguay must now defeat France, which is considered one of the toughest challenges in this tournament.

15. Egypt (Moved Up)

If judged impartially, it cannot be said that Egypt has played excellent football after their impressive draw against Belgium.

They were very lucky to get the necessary draw against Iran in the final group match. The team's performance against Australia was also inconsistent. But the final result is what matters most. Egypt, which had never won a single match in World Cup history until arriving in North America, has now reached the Round of 16.

By defeating Australia in a penalty shootout, they gave historical joy to a country with a population of over 120 million. Now, Egypt will face Argentina in the Round of 16.

14. Canada (Moved Up)

Like the other two co-hosts, Canada has faced relatively easy opponents so far. It has also been analyzed that they got the opportunity to reach the knockout stage simply because they were in Qatar's group. After finishing as group runners-up, they met South Africa in the Round of 32, a team considered relatively weaker.

But credit must be given where it is due. Coach Jesse Marsch may not be everyone's preferred coach, but he has led Canada, who had never won a World Cup match in history, to the Round of 16. Now, having already made history, Canada has nothing to lose.

Playing against Morocco in Houston, Canada will be under no pressure. The 1-0 victory against South Africa, achieved after a struggle until the end, has shown that Canada is capable of surprising any strong team.

13. Belgium (Moved Up)

How Belgium is still remaining in the competition is a mystery to many. The team, which performed poorly in the group stage, was trailing 2-0 against Senegal in the Round of 32 until the 86th minute. Questions were raised about coach Rudi Garcia's tactics after he substituted two of his best players, Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku, prematurely.

But after that, the story of the game changed. Goals from Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans took Belgium to extra time. Then, Tielemans scored the winning goal from a controversial penalty, securing the team's entry into the Round of 16.

It remains to be seen how long luck will favor Belgium. It might end in the match against the USA. But if Belgium's star players find their true form, they can prove dangerous to any team.

12. Switzerland (Moved Up)

Perhaps many are not paying much attention to Switzerland. But that does not seem to affect the team. Despite starting the tournament with a humiliating draw against Qatar, coach Murat Yakin's team remained composed.

Switzerland, which became group winners by defeating Canada, easily secured a place in the Round of 16 by beating Algeria 2-1 in the Round of 32.

Switzerland has not reached the World Cup quarterfinals since 1954. But if they can defeat Colombia this time, that history will be repeated. 20-year-old talented Johan Manzambi has become one of the most shining young players of this World Cup. His speed and physical ability can be a challenge for any defense.

11. Norway (Moved Up)

Finally, Erling Haaland became the hero again at the decisive moment. As the match against Ivory Coast was heading towards extra time, Haaland put Norway into the Round of 16 with the final touch of an excellent team move. He himself smiled as if admitting that the goal was not very perfect.

But Haaland is a player who is always present in the right place at the right time. Now the question is: can he defeat Brazil too? It will not be easy. But Norway, considered the dark horse of the tournament, is currently under no pressure. The team is playing freely, and this freedom makes them an even more dangerous opponent.

10. Mexico (Moved Up)

Since hosting the World Cup on home soil in 1986, Mexico has not reached the quarterfinals again. But this time, they have a real chance to repeat that history. Undoubtedly, they will face England in the Round of 16, which is a very tough challenge. The pain of being eliminated from the Round of 16 in seven consecutive World Cups has been haunting Mexico for a long time.

But this time the situation is a bit different. Mexico, playing on home soil, is in excellent form. They won all three group matches and then easily defeated Ecuador in the Round of 32. The most remarkable fact is that Mexico has not conceded a single goal in the tournament so far. Along with this, there is another important aspect. The match against England will be held in the world-famous Estadio Azteca stadium, located at an altitude of approximately 2,200 meters above sea level. Mexico has never lost any World Cup match in this stadium. Therefore, 'El Tri' has ample reasons to extend their historic journey.

9. United States (Moved Up)

The excellent journey of co-host USA continues. In the Round of 32 match held in San Francisco, the USA defeated Bosnia and Herzegovina with a mature performance. Folarin Balogun continued his excellent scoring form, while Malik Tillman scored the second goal with an attractive free-kick, giving the USA only their second knockout win in World Cup history. However, this victory also came with a major setback. Balogun received a red card and will miss the Round of 16 match against Belgium on Monday.

Nevertheless, coach Mauricio Pochettino's team is confident. Looking at Belgium's performance so far, the USA has a chance to achieve another historic achievement. However, the fact that Belgium defeated the USA 5-2 in a friendly match in March cannot be forgotten.

8. Portugal (Moved Up)

Roberto Martinez and Cristiano Ronaldo have indeed proven to be lucky. Although Portugal played well in the first half against Croatia, they were almost completely under pressure for the entire second half. Portugal, trailing from Ivan Perisic's goal, was equalized by Ronaldo from a penalty. Then, Goncalo Ramos's excellent header gave the team a 2-1 victory. But that was not enough. Josko Gvardiol's goal in the final moments was controversially disallowed, clearly showing that luck favored Portugal.

Therefore, it is still difficult to consider Portugal a strong contender against Spain. However, Portugal has excellent players, especially a very strong midfield. They also have the history of defeating Spain in the Nations League final last year on penalties. But Portugal, which finished second after Colombia in the group stage, did not make an overall impact. The way Croatia repeatedly broke down Portugal's defense does not give a good indication for the upcoming match.

7. Colombia (Moved Up)

Although Colombia's journey has not been extremely attractive, it has certainly been effective. They are consistently getting their job done. However, there have been some weaknesses in their goal-scoring ability. Against Portugal, Colombia took 24 shots in a goalless draw. In the Round of 32 match against Ghana, only one out of 20 attempts resulted in a goal.

But it feels like Colombia's attack will soon return to full form. Better performance is expected, especially from Luis Diaz. Another positive aspect for coach Nestor Lorenzo is the team's defense. With a 1-0 victory over Ghana, Colombia has kept a clean sheet for the third consecutive match.

Switzerland is certainly a tough opponent, but Colombia has the opportunity to match their best World Cup history of reaching the quarterfinals in 2014.

6. England (Moved Up)

England's old story of performing poorly in big tournaments and still advancing to the next round has repeated itself this time. Playing against DR Congo in Atlanta, England looked far below the level of other contenders in this World Cup. But in the end, captain Harry Kane saved the team. He scored two goals, giving England a comeback victory and setting up a thrilling Round of 16 clash with co-host Mexico. In terms of talent, coach Thomas Tuchel's team looks stronger than Mexico.

But with the support of thousands of Mexican fans at the Estadio Azteca, the challenge of playing at high altitude, and the home environment, this match is completely open. Although England looks stronger on paper, the chances for both teams on the field appear almost equal.

5. Brazil (Status Quo)

In the Round of 32 match against Japan, Brazil found themselves in a very difficult situation. Trailing 1-0 after the first half, Brazil could not stop Japan's rapid counter-attacks and was struggling to create their own chances.

But Carlo Ancelotti proved once again why he is considered one of the most successful coaches in history.

The calm and composed Italian coach changed the team's structure in the second half, making the attack more aggressive.

His decision to keep experienced midfielder Casemiro on the field proved correct. Casemiro scored the equalizer, and substitute Gabriel Martinelli scored the winning goal in injury time, putting Brazil into the Round of 16. However, Brazil is still not a complete team. Weaknesses in the full-back and midfield positions are still evident. But they have world-class talent in attack. Moreover, with coach Ancelotti on the bench, the five-time world champions Brazil cannot be counted out of the title race.

4. Morocco (Moved Up)

Morocco needed an injury-time equalizer against Netherlands in the Round of 32 match to stay in the competition. But that does not change one fact – Morocco was a fully deserving team to win that match.

Mohamed Ouahabi's team controlled most of the game in Monterrey.

But unfortunately, due to poor finishing and the excellent performance of Netherlands goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, Morocco missed many chances. Finally, after extra time, they won in a penalty shootout and reached the Round of 16 again, having finished fourth in the 2022 World Cup.

Now Morocco has a golden opportunity to reach the quarterfinals. Because in the Round of 16, they will face Canada, who, although a fighter, has limited capabilities.

3. Argentina (Moved Down)

How to evaluate Argentina's performance against Cape Verde? The defending champions should have anticipated a tough challenge from a World Cup debutant team that had remained unbeaten in a group with Spain. But Argentina seemed surprised by Cape Verde's level and confidence.

Throughout the entire match, Lionel Scaloni's team looked slow, disorganized, and careless. If not for Lionel Messi's inspirational performance and two goals from set-pieces, it could have been the biggest upset in World Cup history. Now, ahead of the match against Egypt, this major setback is expected to refocus Argentina.

But Cape Verde has made one thing clear – Argentina has some serious weaknesses. The biggest problem is the lack of creativity and excessive reliance on Messi for goals.

2. Spain (Moved Up)

Welcome, Spain! After a relatively ordinary performance in the group stage, the reigning European champions finally showed their true potential on the biggest stage of world football. In an impressive 3-0 victory over Austria, Mikel Oyarzabal once again performed excellently, proving his ability to win the World Cup for Spain. Since the beginning of 2025, only Erling Haaland has scored more goals in international football than Oyarzabal. But the real test for Spain was the knockout stage.

Because since winning the World Cup in 2010, Spain had not won any knockout stage match. Now the next challenge is Portugal. Undoubtedly, Portugal is a stronger opponent than Austria. But if Spain can play with the same high pressing and attacking football as they did against Austria, they can completely put pressure on Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal.

1. France (Moved Up)

Can anyone stop France from reaching the World Cup final for the third consecutive time? Based on their performance so far, the answer seems to be 'no'. France's attacking line is considered the strongest in this World Cup.

Coach Didier Deschamps has so many excellent attackers that he can bench either Desiree Doue or Bradley Barcola. Even talented Rayan Cherki has not had enough opportunities. Against Sweden, Barcola scored his second goal of the tournament, easily putting France into the Round of 16.

In this match, Ousmane Diomande and Kylian Mbappé's performances were also exceptional. If this form continues, it does not seem very difficult for France to win against Paraguay in Philadelphia on Saturday. Based on their performance so far, France has established itself as the strongest contender to win the World Cup 2026.